Context of Congressional Elections Single member districts Roughly equal size (650,000 souls) First Tuesday in November in even # years Australian ballot Must win 2 elections

Social & Political Contexts Amazing Variation – geographic size – Population – Economic base – Ethnicity – Age – Partisanship

Incumb Reelect Rates

Incumbency 93% of House incumbents are reelected – 1994, 84% of House Democrats were reelected 77% of Senate incumbents are reelected #1 question to ask for congressional elections, Is there an incumbent? Defining feature of Congress

Web Assignment #7 Roll Call- Campaign News – What makes a good candidate? – What makes a close election?

House of Representatives 61 “competitive” races in 2000 – 193 GOP incumbents won, 4 lost – 199 Dem incumbents won, 2 lost – GOP wins 20 of 25 open seats – Dems with 4 of 10 open seats 17 changes of 435

Senate in toss up races out of 33 – GOP 13 of 18 incumbents win – Dems 10 of 11 incumbents win – GOP 0 of 1 on open seats – Dems 3 of 4 on open seats 7 changes

Sources of Incumbent advantage Institutions are designed by members who want to get reelected. Amazing array of resources – Free mail, trips to district, staff – Free facilities for TV and radio ads – Casework

# of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993

Is it the Money Average incumbent gets 64.3% of vote For every $100,00 spent, lose 1.17% of vote For every $100,00 spent by party, lose 2.73% of vote incumbent House winner spends $700,00 incumbent House loser spends 1,300,000

Why Incumbents Win Table 5.3, high name recognition Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates Table 5.15 – Personal – Performance/experience – District service – Ideology/Policy

Challengers Strategy Table 5.3 name recognition Table 5.11, Campaign expenditures and name recognition Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates – Where do voters learn about challengers Table 5.15, Things liked about challengers – What is #1?

The Incumbent’s Strategy Discourage serious electoral competition – Herb Kohl Use casework, trips home, mailings to create perception of invulnerability Ambitious career politicians and campaign funders are rational

Electoral Competition and Challenger Spending in 1994 Challenger’s party vote in last House election, spending by non-incumbent house candidate <40%, $105, %, $322, %, $433,000 Open seat $580,000

Expectations Game Better the electoral odds, better the challenger and more money Weak incumbents and open seats attract well funded quality challengers Strong incumbents attract weak, poorly funded candidates

Strategic Politician Hypothesis Best candidates, most money go to marginal incumbents, open seats 2 nd tier candidates, some money go Hopeless, poorly funded candidates run against strong incumbents

Who is a marginal incumbent Less than 60% of vote in previous election Scandal in last term Republican in a democratic leaning district First term representative

Campaigns ½ of all money is wasted, high uncertainty What issues are important Low turnout Random terror and running scared – Tom Foley, speaker of the house, 15 terms

Why do incumbents win? Better known (90% vs 40% Better liked (more familiar) Better funded

Why do challengers win? Make voters aware of incumbents’ shortcomings, their own virtues via mass media Are well funded Implications???

Reforming the System Term limits – Federal level – State level Increase competitiveness of elections – Campaign finance reform Key Issue, how to get more people to run for office!!!

The Two Congresses Representative/elective institution – reelection is never far from members’ minds. Lawmaking institution – First branch of government – Unique among representative institutions

Explaining the Behavior of Individual Members Edmund Burke should representative – act like a delegate and follow the wishes of those who have elected him or her? – Or as a Trustee who decides according to his or her own best judgment?

Changing Representational Roles Lawmakers District service Constituent assistance

3 types of behavior Advertising – Nobody’s senator but yours Credit claiming – Has to be credible – Pork barreling; casework Position taking – Inherently costly

reelection tips for legislators keep your perspective speak the right language first impressions are important