Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

73% Disapprove of how Congress is handling its job

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "73% Disapprove of how Congress is handling its job"— Presentation transcript:

1 73% Disapprove of how Congress is handling its job
"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?" NBC Nov 1-2 11% right direction, 76% wrong direction "How well are things going in the country today: very well, fairly well, pretty badly or very badly?“ CNN Oct 17 42% pretty badly, 33% very badly 73% Disapprove of how Congress is handling its job

2 And yet.. Few incumbents lose Partisan swing 16 House (12 R, 4 D)
2 Senate (R- NH, NC) Partisan swing 5 GOP Senate seats lost (NH, NC, CO, NM, VA) OR, AK, MN undecided Democrat gains 20 in House

3 Context of Congressional Elections
Single member districts Roughly equal size (650,000 souls) First Tuesday in November in even # years Australian ballot Must win 2 elections

4 Same Place, Same Voters Three Maps, Three Outcomes
Basic Rules each square same population. All squares in the same district must touch R squares have a majority of Republican voters D squares have a majority of Democratic voters. Each set of squares with the same color represent a single election district

5 Map 1 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections?
five desirable less safe, more competitive districts, where the winner of the election may be either a Republican or a Democrat

6 Map 2 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections?
three Republican and two Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties. Note the very safe pink D district

7 Map 3 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections?
two Republican and three Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties:

8 Florida Florida's 22nd District 90 miles long Less than 3 miles wide.
every beach house lining Route A1A along Florida's Gold Coast from West Palm Beach to Miami Beach 52% Dem in 2000, 55% R in 2002

9 Social & Political Contexts
Amazing Variation geographic size Population Economic base Ethnicity Age Partisanship

10 Incumbency Reelection Rates 1832-1996

11 Incumbency 93% of House incumbents are reelected
1994, 84% of House Democrats were reelected 77% of Senate incumbents are reelected #1 question to ask for congressional elections, Is there an incumbent?

12 Sources of Incumbent advantage
Institutions are designed by members who want to get reelected. Amazing array of resources Free mail, trips to district, staff Free facilities for TV and radio ads Casework

13 # of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993

14

15

16 Puzzle

17 Is it the Money? Average incumbent gets 64.3% of vote
For every $100,00 spent, lose 1.17% of vote For every $100,00 spent by party, lose 2.73% of vote incumbent House winner spends $700,00 incumbent House loser spends 1,300,000

18 Incumbency Status and Voters' Familiarity with Congressional Candidates, 1980-1994
Jacobsen, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 1996

19 Voters’ Contact with Incumbents

20 Voters’ Contact with Candidates, 1990

21 Voters’ Contact with Candidates, 1990

22 Challengers 1990, 1994

23

24 Things Liked about Incumbents

25 Things Disliked about Incumbents

26 Things Liked about Challengers

27 Characteristics of Winning and Losing Challengers

28 Corporate PACs/Trade Associations 60% of all PAC $, 1994

29 The Incumbent’s Strategy
Discourage serious electoral competition Hilary Clinton - who doesn’t she want to face! Use casework, trips home, mailings to create perception of invulnerability Ambitious career politicians and campaign funders are rational

30 Montana- McCain 50%, Baucus 73%
Arkansas McCain 59%, Mark Pryor, 80%

31 Who does Kirsten Gillibrand want to run against?
John Faso, GOP nominee for governor, 16 years state assembly Jim Tedisco, Minority Leader of Assembly, 26 years state assembly Sandy Treadwell, Appointed chair of New York GOP, wealth $50 million

32 Who is a marginal incumbent
Less than 60% of vote in previous election Scandal in last term Republican in a democratic leaning district First term representative

33 Electoral Competition and Challenger Spending in 1994
Challenger’s party vote in last House election, spending by non-incumbent house candidate <40%, $105,000 40-45%, $322,000 %, $433 ,000 Open seat $580,000

34

35 House of Representatives
61 “competitive” races in 2000 193 GOP incumbents won, 4 lost 199 Dem incumbents won, 2 lost GOP wins 20 of 25 open seats Dems with 4 of 10 open seats 17 changes of 435

36

37 Senate in 2000 12 toss up races out of 33 7 changes
GOP 13 of 18 incumbents win Dems 10 of 11 incumbents win GOP 0 of 1 on open seats Dems 3 of 4 on open seats 7 changes

38

39 Expectations Game Better the electoral odds, better the challenger and more money Weak incumbents and open seats attract well funded quality challengers Strong incumbents attract weak, poorly funded candidates

40

41 Strategic Politician Hypothesis
Best candidates, most money go to marginal incumbents, open seats 2nd tier candidates, some money go Hopeless, poorly funded candidates run against strong incumbents

42

43 Rational Targeting in 2004 DCC identifies top races; direct $$ there
33 challengers spent over $2 million 200 spent less than $100,000 30 House elections decided by <10% Bad for Public? Bad for Party?

44 Expand the Field in 2006? 30 races or a 100
Campaign Spending diminishing returns ($1 million) Extra $500k  10 races

45 ABC News/Washington Post Poll
How would you vote in your congressional district if the election "were being held today?" 52% of registered voters Dem 37% for Republican candidates Who would you like to see "in control of Congress after the congressional elections a year from now? 55% Dems 37% Republicans. ABC News/Washington Post Poll

46 Strategic Politician Model
Implication candidates decide elections, not voters

47 Campaigns ½ of all money is wasted, high uncertainty
What issues are important Low turnout 35% turnout in midterm elections Who votes? seniors and partisans! Random terror and running scared Tom Foley, speaker of the house, 15 terms

48 Why do incumbents win? Better known (90% vs 40%
Better liked (more familiar) Better funded

49 Why do challengers win? Make voters aware of incumbents’ shortcomings, their own virtues via mass media Are well funded Implications???

50 NY’s 21st District 55% Bush Gillibrand

51 Reforming the System Term limits Increase competitiveness of elections
Federal level State level Increase competitiveness of elections Campaign finance reform Key Issue, how to get more people to run for office!!!

52 “Race to the Base” % Reagan % Clinton % Kerry

53 Electoral Replacement The Death of the Gypsy Moth
Scott Garrett Marge Roukema

54 Candidate Certification in Open Primaries
216 House members, 42 senators

55 Declare War on Rinos Republican In Name Only Arlen Specter (PA)
Lincoln Chafee (RI) George Voinvich (OH) Olympia Snowe (ME)

56 Primary Challengers for Moderates
War on Rinos Senator Chafee (R-RI) vs Steve Laffey

57 Safe Electoral Strategy
Cater to partisan and ideological GOP base 10 competitive races in 2004 35 competitive races in 2006

58 Why Incumbents Win Table 5.3, high name recognition
Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates Table 5.15 Personal Performance/experience District service Ideology/Policy

59 Challengers Strategy Table 5.3 name recognition
Table 5.11, Campaign expenditures and name recognition Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates Where do voters learn about challengers Table 5.15, Things liked about challengers What is #1?


Download ppt "73% Disapprove of how Congress is handling its job"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google