LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS CHINA: PART III E DROUGHT EPISODES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA.

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS CHINA: PART III E DROUGHT EPISODES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE CHINA’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK FLOODS TYPHOONS EARTHQUAKES LANDSLIDESS DROUGHT EPISODES GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCE

DROUGHT IN CHINA:

DROUGHT is an environmental extreme that is characterized by an absence of precipitation in the local and regional water cycle as a consequence of interactions of elements of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere.

PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION DROUGHTS LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE LOSS OF CROPS DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER LOSS OF VEGETATION INSECT INFESTATION LOSS OF USE OF AG. LAND CAUSES & CONSE- QUENCES DISASTER LABORATORIES

THE DROUGHT EPISODE IN CHINA The 2010–2011 drought episode, which began in late 2010 after a severe lack of rain and snow, was China’s worst drought episode in 60 years.

THE DROUGHT EPISODE IN CHINA Eight of China’s provinces (Anhui, Gansu, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Shanxi), all wheat - producing regions, were impacted by the drought.

MAP OF CHINA’S PROVINCES

IMPACTS The drought caused water shortages for an estimated 2.31 million people and 2.57 million livestock.

IMPACTS Within the eight provinces, 20% of the farmland and 35% of the wheat crop was impacted.

IMPACTS The Hubei lake shrank to one-eighth of its normal surface area and one-fifth its usual depth, forcing 3,234 local residents to relocate.

IMPACTS By June, 2011, the drought had affected 35 million people, including 4.2 million facing a drinking water shortage.

IMPACTS By June, direct economic losses had reached 15 billion yuan (about 2.3 billion USD).

THE PARADOX: While these 8 provinces were experiencing drought, other provinces were experiencing flooding.

UNDERSTANDING DROUGHT A Slow-Onset, Natural Phenomenon That Can Happen Anywhere

Drought– A Natural Phenomenon That Can Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s atmospheric- oceanic- lithospheric interactions cause:  Droughts

CHARACTERISTICS OF DROUGHT SLOW ONSET DIVERSE IN LOCATION AND DURATION DIFFICULT TO MEASURE THE DURATION AND THE EXTENT OF THE SOCIETAL IMPACTS SLOW ONSET DIVERSE IN LOCATION AND DURATION DIFFICULT TO MEASURE THE DURATION AND THE EXTENT OF THE SOCIETAL IMPACTS

DROUGHT HAZARDS

DROUGHT HAZARDS (AKA Potential disaster Agents) HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY LOW HUMIDITY LOSS OF SOIL MOISTURE VANISHING STREAMS, LAKES, AND WATER TABLES

DROUGHT LINKAGES AND RISKS Drought is linked to loss of water quantity and quality, which can lead to major loss of life (people and livestock), loss of livelihoods, loss of habitats, and sometimes famine.

NOTE: Between 108 BC and 1911 AD, 1,828 famines of varying severity occurred in China (i.e., one nearly every year in at least one province)

NOTE: Millions in China have died from lack of food.

DROUGHT RISKS

CHINA;S COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS DROUGHT HAZARDS LOCATIONS DROUGHT RISK DROUGHT RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE MONITORING ADAPTATION PREPAREDNESS POLICY OPTIONS

HAZARDSHAZARDS ELEMENTS OF RISK EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

E DECREASE IN WATER QUALITY UNACCEPTABLE RISK DECREASE IN WATER QUANTITY SUSCEPTIBILITY TO WILDFIRES ECONOMIC LOSS; FAMINE; DEATHS RISKRISK

DROUGHT RISKS (FOR A SLOW ONSET NATURAL HAZARD) Loss of life (People and animals) Loss of livelihoods and habitats Loss of crops and agricultural land (e.g., from desertification) Reductions in water quantity and quality

DROUGHT RISKS (FOR A SLOW ONSET NATURAL HAZARD) Large-scale migrations of people from areas experiencing droughts and famines.

FACILITATING ACHIEVEMENT OF DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE EMERGING TECNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DROUGHT RESILIENCE WEATHER FORECASTS MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., REMOTE SENSING) WARNING SYSTEMS WEATHER FORECASTS MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., REMOTE SENSING) WARNING SYSTEMS DATABASES FOR PAST DROUGHTS COMPUTER MODELS OF DROUGHT MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS HAZARD ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT DATABASES FOR PAST DROUGHTS COMPUTER MODELS OF DROUGHT MAPS DISASTER SCENARIOS HAZARD ASSESSMENT RISK ASSESSMENT

DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE IDENTIFICATION OF DROUGHT PRECURSORS ALERT AND WARNING PURPOSE IDENTIFICATION OF DROUGHT PRECURSORS ALERT AND WARNING TECHNIQUE REMOTE SENSING; SITE-SPECIFIC MONITORING; MODELING PUBLIC AWARENESS; EDUCATION TECHNIQUE REMOTE SENSING; SITE-SPECIFIC MONITORING; MODELING PUBLIC AWARENESS; EDUCATION

DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE PROTECT WATER QUANTITY PROTECT WATER QUALITY PURPOSE PROTECT WATER QUANTITY PROTECT WATER QUALITY TECHNIQUE RESERVOIRS; CONSERVATION ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; WATER TREATMENT TECHNIQUE RESERVOIRS; CONSERVATION ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; WATER TREATMENT

DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE PURPOSE LAND-USE CONTROL ADAPTATION TO THE SITUATION PURPOSE LAND-USE CONTROL ADAPTATION TO THE SITUATION TECHNIQUE DROUGHT- RESISTANT CROPS AND VEGETATION COMMUNITY DROUGHT RESPONSE PLAN TECHNIQUE DROUGHT- RESISTANT CROPS AND VEGETATION COMMUNITY DROUGHT RESPONSE PLAN

POLICY ADOPTION RISK ASSESSMENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY EXPOSUREEXPOSURE EVENTEVENT POLICY ASSESSMENT COSTCOST BENEFITBENEFIT CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES TOWARDS DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE DROUGHTSDROUGHTS EXPECTED LOSS