Climate Change Vulnerability in Norway Socio-economic Perspectives on Policies and Impacts Karen O’Brien CICERO

Approaches to Studying Climate Change Impacts © Seppo Leinonen,

Climatic Change Scenarios (RegClim) First-Order Impacts (Climatic Properties: temperature, precipitation) Second-Order Impacts (Crop Yields) Third-Order Impacts (Regional Productivity) Higher-Order Impacts (Farm Income, Consumer Prices, etc.) Impacts of Climatic Change

Impact Assessment

Vulnerability Approaches to Impacts Vulnerability describes the extent to which a system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change. Vulnerability describes the extent to which a system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change.

Aspects of Vulnerability Biophysical vulnerability Biophysical vulnerability Social vulnerability Social vulnerability

IPCC Conceptualization of Vulnerability Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

Sensitivity The degree to which a system will respond, either positively or negatively, to a change in climate. The degree to which a system will respond, either positively or negatively, to a change in climate.

Exposure The degree of climate stress upon a particular unit of analysis The degree of climate stress upon a particular unit of analysis Climate stress: Climate stress:  long-term climate conditions  climate variability  magnitude and frequency of extreme events

Adaptive Capacity The capacity of a system to adjust in response to actual or expected climate stimuli, their effects, or impacts. The capacity of a system to adjust in response to actual or expected climate stimuli, their effects, or impacts.

IPCC conclusion: ”Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.” ”Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.”

Is Norway vulnerable to climate change?

Which regions, sectors, and social groups within Norway are most vulnerable to climate change?

Climate Change and Extreme Events Fylke Average annual disbursement 80-00, mill NOK, (2001- value) Flood a Storm a Avalanche/ landslide a Møre og Romsdal61,75.4 %91.2 %3.2 % Hedmark48,192.1 %7.3 %0.5 % Akershus/Oslo46,053.5 %42.8 %3.6 % Nordland45,04.2 %87.3 %8.5 % Hordaland27,77.2 %81.7 %11.0 % Sør-Trøndelag24,25.6 %86.6 %7.6 % Sogn og Fjordane18,710.3 %79.4 %9.7 % Oppland21,381.0 %14.5 %4.3 % Nord-Trøndelag19,319.1 %72.3 %8.5 % Troms22,05.8 %84.8 %8.9 % Rogaland18,112.1 %85.8 %2.0 % Buskerud18,046.6 %33.5 %19.8 % Telemark15,346.8 %41.7 %11.1 % Østfold14,147.7 %48.6 %3.6 % Finnmark12,33.7 %79.5 %16.6 % Vestfold10,319.8 %69.1 %10.3 % Vest-Agder10,316.8 %80.3 %2.9 % Aust-Agder1,731.7 %60.9 %7.2 %

Vulnerable sectors: Agriculture Agriculture Forestry Forestry Winter tourism Winter tourism

Indicators of biophysical vulnerability: Agricultural sector Spring rainfall Spring rainfall Autumn rainfall Autumn rainfall Length of growing season Length of growing season Spring frost/thaw Spring frost/thaw Autumn frost/thaw Autumn frost/thaw Snow depth Snow depth

Indicators of social vulnerability: agricultural sector Climate sensitivity Employment in agricultural sector, % Employment in agricultural sector, % Economic capacity Untied public income (taxes and govt. transfers), NOK Untied public income (taxes and govt. transfers), NOK Employment growth prognosis, % Employment growth prognosis, % Demographic capacity Dependency rate, % Dependency rate, % Aging working population, % Aging working population, % Net migration rate, avg % Net migration rate, avg %

How correct are these indicators? Case studies must be carried out to verify the indicators selected, and identify factors that shape vulnerability in Norwegian municipalities. Case studies must be carried out to verify the indicators selected, and identify factors that shape vulnerability in Norwegian municipalities. Stakeholder dialogues: Voss and Oppdal (June 2003) Stakeholder dialogues: Voss and Oppdal (June 2003)

Vulnerability is shaped by numerous social and biophysical factors Social welfare policies Social welfare policies Globalization and regionalization Globalization and regionalization Disease outbreaks Disease outbreaks

Vulnerability to Climate Change Policies Sensitivity % employment in secondary sector % employment in secondary sector % of CO 2 emissions coming from industry % of CO 2 emissions coming from industry Adaptive capacity Economic factors Economic factors Demographic factors Demographic factors

Vulnerability: A differential concept A differential concept A dynamic concept A dynamic concept Scale dependent Scale dependent Shaped by multiple stressors Shaped by multiple stressors

A vulnerability approach can improve our understanding of socio- economic perspectives on climate impacts and policies, and help in identifying and targeting adaptation strategies.

Thanks to the project team! Asbjørn Aaheim, Guro Aandahl, Sjur Kasa, Bård Romstad, Linda Sygna, Heather Tompkins, Anders Undertun (CICERO) Asbjørn Aaheim, Guro Aandahl, Sjur Kasa, Bård Romstad, Linda Sygna, Heather Tompkins, Anders Undertun (CICERO) Geir Orderud and Bjørnar Sæter (NIBR) Geir Orderud and Bjørnar Sæter (NIBR)