1. Resource-based activities in Atlantic Canada: Adaptations to Climate Change Norm Catto Department of Geography, Memorial University, St. John’s, NL, Canada, A1B 3X9 ncatto@mun.ca

2. Atlantic Canada  Residents aware of weather and environment  Resource-based occupations - fishing, agriculture, forestry, and tourism - critical to socio-economic activity fishing, agriculture, forestry, and tourism - critical to socio-economic activity  Climate change and variation imposed upon efforts at sustainability

3. Climate: Recent variability & change  Longer, hotter and drier summers  Thunderstorm & lightning activity  Increased storm activity  More winter & spring precipitation, esp. rain  Stronger winds  Variable, generally reduced snow cover  More ‘anomalous’ events  Decreased fog

4. Some Stress Areas for Resource-Based Sustainability  Agriculture  Tourism and summer residents  Forestry  Groundfish stocks & Crab harvesting  Climate-related natural hazards

5. Compounding Stresses Climate change & variation compounded by:  Over-fishing  Periodic low prices for agricultural produce  Competition  International trade regulations  Transportation difficulties  Human response to weather & climate events

6. Agriculture  Numerous oscillations in price, competition  Pathogens, summer drought  International trade restrictions  Some communities have suffered substantially since 1990 as a result of economic difficulties

7. Average vs. Extreme  average conditions impact agricultural activity  a single late frost, hailstorm, flood, or extended drought can have an overriding effect  extreme events more difficult to assess  increased frequ. of drier and hotter periods  more intense precipitation events  greater irregularity in last spring and first autumn frost dates

8. Groundwater  Groundwater management central to agriculture  Irrigation increases demand on water resources  Reduced snow cover has negative effects  Adaptation: monitoring of consumption patterns  assessment of groundwater recharge  land use management, planning  water conservation  wetland preservation

9. Soil Management  Intensively managed soils used to support shorter, less diverse crop rotations are more susceptible to degradation from climate and extreme weather events

10. Livestock  air-condition livestock buildings  manage water usage and waste disposal  effects on forage production  spread of pathogens accentuated under warmer conditions

11. More than just crops …  Changed pathogens, predators, and pests  Impacts to infrastructure  Transportation, marketing, communications  Operational changes – irrigation  Crop rotation desirable  Farm economics & demographics

12. More than just fish …  Changed pathogens, predators, and pests  Impacts to infrastructure  Regulatory regime  Transportation, marketing, communications  Operational changes by fish harvesters  Health and safety  Search-and-rescue operations

13. Forestry … species change less important than …  Changed pathogens, predators, and pests  Transportation, marketing, communications  Operational changes  Availability  Global competition & industry response  Some communities facing contraction

14. Tourism: Recent trends & change  Increased and changed use by residents  More summer residents & summer home purchases  Aging demographic  Shift to air travel  Continued attraction of ‘come-home’ years – not as subject to climate change impacts

15. Climate Impacts on Tourism  Increased wave erosion by winter storm surges  Increased coastal erosion and narrowing of beaches  Coarsening of beach sediments  Increased degradation of coastal dunes  Damage to trails  Water supply and quality concerns – drier summers

16. Climate Impacts of Tourism  Increased visitation & longer season  Enhanced tourist use of natural areas  Summer use of wooded areas can result in an increase in forest fires (local & distant)  Increased use of ponds during summer

17. Snow tourism  changes in cross-country skiing patterns  Decreases in snow would limit snowmobiling  Reduction by ~ 50% in days suitable for snowmobiling from 1970 to 2025  Snowmobile sales declined by 38.4% between 1997 and 2005 throughout North America  ATV sales increased by a comparable percentage

18. Implications - positives  Change advertising in response to changed conditions and tourist population  Longer summer & shoulder seasons  As warming increases more rapidly in central North America and Western Europe, our relatively cool summers are increasingly seen as attractive environments for vacationing or a summer residence

19. Climate and Community  Impacts create socio-economic consequences, impacting on community sustainability  Climate influences on community sustainability superimposed on political, socio-economic, technological factors

20. Impacts happen …  regardless of cause of climate change and variation  Changes identified and measured today  Changes are similar to those observed in past  Communities face similar types of risks  Only the frequency and the consequences of disregarding existing knowledge will change

21.  Application of current best practices  Many adaptations are already ongoing  Information, communication, dissemination, and planning aid adaptation and sustainability  Study of previous events provides perspective Adaptations