1. Modelling the vulnerability of livestock production and food security to population growth and climate change Olivia F. Godber and Richard Wall olivia.godber@bristol.ac.uk Godber, O.F. & Wall, R. (2014). Livestock production and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change. Global Change Biology, 20, 3092-3102.

2. Background to vulnerability analysis Useful in coupled human-environment systems Can be used to aid policy, decision-making and the targeting of interventions Sensitivity The dependence on a specific factor and its importance to a sector Exposure The extent to which a system will be influenced by any specific change Adaptive capacity The ability of a system to undertake mitigating adaptation

3. Methods Vulnerability Sensitivity: Exposure: Adaptive Capacity: The contribution of grazing livestock to a nation’s nutritional intake The anticipated changes in climate and population growth The socio-economic status of nations

4. Methods

5. Vulnerability Sensitivity Exposure Adaptive capacity Self-sufficiency Food inadequacy Nutritional contribution of grazing livestock products to nutritional intake Change in level of precipitation Change in temperature Extreme weather events Population growth Life expectancy GDP Governance + - Scaled 0 – 1 10 indicators Climate change

6. Methods: analysis 1. Ranking of nations 2. Comparison of geographical regions, developed status and income group (mean scores, weighted by population size) 3. Influence of indicators on vulnerability score

7. Results: Sensitivity Most sensitive region: South Asia Most sensitive income group: Lower middle income Most sensitive developed status: Developing Nutritional reliance on home-produced, grazing livestock for food products, and level of food security Most sensitive nations: Mongolia Sudan Eritrea

8. Results: Exposure Impact of projected changes in climate and population growth Most exposed region: South Asia Most exposed income group: Upper middle income Most exposed developed status: Developing Most exposed nations: Kenya Niger Mauritania

9. Results: Adaptive Capacity Ability to change in response to, or cope with, changes in climate and population growth Region with least adaptive capacity: Sub-Saharan Africa Income group with least adaptive capacity: Low income Developed status with least adaptive capacity: Least developed Nations with least adaptive capacity: Central African Republic Guinea-Bissau Lesotho

10. Results: Vulnerability Overall vulnerability to the impacts of population growth and climate change on grazing livestock and their contribution to food security Most vulnerable region: South Asia Most vulnerable income group: Lower middle income Most vulnerable developed status: Developing Most vulnerable nations: Kenya Burundi Eritrea

11. Results: influence of indicators Increases in adaptive capacity appear to have a proportionately larger effect than reductions in sensitivity

12. Limitations: interactions - - ++ /

13. Conclusions African and Asian nations most vulnerable Food security already compromised Harsh climatic conditions Lack of economical and technological support Increasing demand for livestock based food products Increases in adaptive capacity appear to have a proportionately larger effect than reductions in sensitivity Interaction between elements of vulnerability Need to be considered when implementing change

14. Thank you Modelling the vulnerability of livestock production and food security to population growth and climate change Olivia F. Godber and Richard Wall olivia.godber@bristol.ac.uk Godber, O.F. & Wall, R. (2014). Livestock production and food security: vulnerability to population growth and climate change. Global Change Biology, 20, 3092-3102.