Assessing Risk of Sexual Re-offenses by Sex Offenders A Training Program by the Capital District Coalition for Sex Offender Management Richard Hamill, Ph.D. July 12, 2005

Comprehensive Approaches to Sex Offender Management Five critical disciplines: Investigation (law enforcement, CPS) Prosecution Community Supervision (probation, parole) Treatment (specialized sex offender services) Victim Advocates

Goals for this workshop Probation Officers will learn to predict more accurately the degree to which a sex offender is likely to commit another sex offense. When included in the pre-sentence investigation report, the risk assessment provides the judge with critical information, as well as a rationale to support suggested sentences and conditions.

Overview of the workshop 1. What we know about sex offenses 2. Types of sex offenders 3. Assessing risk of sexual recidivism 4. Using the Static-99 5. Presenting the Static-99 in reports 6. Questions and answers

What we know about child sexual abuse 1. By the time he or she is eighteen years old, one in every 4 girls and one in every 6 or 7 boys has been the victim of a “hands-on” (contact) sex offense. 2. Young children (ages 0 to 5 years old) are the fastest growing class of sexual abuse victim. 3. Sexual abuse often creates significant, even life-long problems for victims and loved ones 4. Multidisciplinary, collaborative approach is required for effective intervention.

Not All Sex Offenders Are The Same Victim preferences Behavior preferences Motivation for offending Attitudes towards deviant behavior Risk to re-offend Supervision and treatment needs

What we know about sex offenders 1. There are many different types of sex offenders. 2. Each type has a different rate of re-offending, and prognosis for change. 3. Treatment cuts recidivism by about 50%. 4. If treatment is not provided, sex offender sexual re-offense rates are: 14% convicted of a sexual re-offense within 5 years 20% convicted of a sexual re-offense within 10 years 24% convicted of a sexual re-offense within 15 years

Gender (Vermont Probation & Parole, 2003) 98% of known sex offenders are male

Victim’s Age at Time of First Assault Kilpatrick, Edmunds, Seymour (1992). Rape in America. Age of Victims

Relationship Between Victims and Offenders Tjaden & Thoennes (2000) 90% 66%

Degree of Physical Injury Kilpatrick, Edmunds, Seymour (1992) Degree of Physical Injury Kilpatrick, Edmunds, Seymour (1992). Rape in America.

Reporting of Sexual Abuse Kilpatrick et al. (2003) Reporting of Sexual Abuse Kilpatrick et al. (2003). National Survey of Adolescents. 86% not reported to the authorities *some cases reported to more than one authority

What Are Victim’s Greatest Concerns What Are Victim’s Greatest Concerns? Kilpatrick, Edmunds, Seymour (1992). Rape in America.

Victims and Victimization History Hindman & Peters (2001)

Common Childhood Experience of Sex Offenders Harmful sexual experiences Poor parent-child attachments Antisocial parental influences Physical and emotional abuse Deviant masturbatory conditioning

Crossover Offending ______________________________________ Issues: crossover definitions; order of progression

Sexual Re-offense Rates “Official”rates based on Harris & Hanson (2004) “Estimated” rates based on Hanson, Morton, & Harris (2003) 10 samples; n=4,724 Percent 14% 20% 24% 27% 25% 35% 40% 45% Years in Community

Explanations and Preconditions for Sexual Offending Cumming & McGrath (2004); Finkelhor (1984,1986) 1 2 3 Motives Willingness Opportunity Sexual Interest Emotional Closeness Power and Control Anger/Grievance Planned - Opportunistic Manipulation - Force Cognitive Distortions Substance Abuse Stress Psychopathy Other

Motivation for Sexual Offending 1. Need for Power / Control 2. Need for Intimacy 3. Need to Vent Anger 4. Need to Feel Competent 5. Need for Sexual Gratification 6. Curiosity (juvenile sex offenders only)

Hanson et al., Meta-Analysis (2002) (15 studies using “current treatments” over 4-5 years) Percent Recidivism 51% 32% 17% 10% (41% reduction) (37% reduction)

Vermont Incarcerated Programs: Example of Risk/Need Matching DD/MI Services

Vermont Community Programs: Example of Risk/Need Matching Individualized Assessment LSI-R RRASOR Static-99 TPS VASOR (PCL-R) (VRAG)

Psychophysiological Assessment Methods Community Programs for Male and Female Adults 1986-2002 McGrath, Cumming, & Burchard (2003) Percent of programs

Pharmacological Treatment: Programs for Adult Males McGrath, Cumming, & Burchard (2003) Percent of programs

Impact of Aftercare Services Gordon & Packard (1998) % Recidivism Rate at 5-year Follow-up 25% 15% 8% 2%

Sex offender treatment What we know: Treatment reduces re-offense rate by 40-60% Treatment is not effective for all sex offenders About one-third of sex offenders are NOT motivated to stop committing sex offenses However, the treatment process does give us much more insight about offender modus operandi, strategies, triggers, level of risk to the community Some failures also help keep the community safer

Unique Aspects of Sex Offender Treatment Treatment team is the probation/parole officer and the therapist Unrestricted Release of Information for probation/parole officer and therapist Immediate notification of P.O. if offender shifts into elevated risk of re-offending Goal: Incapacitate before re-offense (VOP, rehab program)

Three components of treatment (1) Relapse Prevention model sexual offending similar to an addiction stress “abstinence,” not “cure” cognitive-behavioral: focuses on feelings, beliefs (cognitive distortions), stimuli and behaviors identify triggers for elevated risk, details of offense cycle, effective safety plan enhance empathy for victims enhance motivation for remaining abstinent

Treatment of sex offenders (2) Life skills development anger-management skills (esp. rapists) relationship-building / intimacy skills skills for living with SORA, the s.o. label vocational skills communication skills assertiveness training communication of feelings

Treatment of sex offenders (3) Resolution of the effects of one’s own abuse / neglect personal histories characterized by childhood sexual abuse (especially preferential sex offenders), physical abuse (especially rapists, use- of-force sex offenders) exposure to domestic violence (especially rapists), Neglect / chaotic family system

Summary Community safety depends on: successful law enforcement investigation effective prosecution effective correctional system programs community supervision using strategies specific to sex offenders community-based sex offender treatment keeping awareness of impact on the victim

What we know about sex offenders

TYPES OF SEX OFFENSES Three clusters of sex offenses: Contact, use of force (rape) Contact, use of non-force strategies (molestation) Non-contact offenses (exposing, voyeurism, obscene phone calls, sexual harassment)

Types of rapists Rapists (Prentky and Knight typology) Prognosis 1. Opportunistic fair-good 2. Pervasively angry fair 3. Sexualized poor-fair 4. Vindictive fair

Types of child molesters (F.B.I. Behavioral Sciences typology) Situational Prognosis 1. Compensating very good 2. Psychopaths poor 3. Normalized fair-good 4. Sexualized poor-fair Preferential - 1. Seductive fair - 2. Inadequate poor-fair - 3. Sadistic poor

Types of rapists (Use of Force) Four types based on motivation: (1) Opportunistic type: Take advantage of opportunities open to them. Typically, self-centered, risk-takers. Prognosis: fair-to-good (2) Pervasively angry type: Rape is strategy to vent pent-up anger History of other anger-motivated crimes Prognosis: fair-to-poor

Types of rapists (3) Sexual type Rape is committed as way of meeting sexual needs Person has sexual attraction to rape Two sub-types: Sadistic and Non-sadistic Sadistic offenses: usually longer duration, often include extensive threats designed to create fear; physical incapacitation, infliction of pain Non-sadistic rapes: Force is used as strategy to accomplish the rape Prognosis is poor-to-fair. Work to incarcerate.

Types of rapists (4) Vindictive type Rape victim is person toward whom they feel anger Rape is punishment, or attempt to re-establish sense of personal power or control Typical victims: partners, former partners Prognosis: fair

Types of Child Molesters Based on the work of Ken Lanning (F.B.I. Behavioral Sciences unit) Two large clusters of child molesters: Situational (non-fixated) Preferential (fixated)

Situational child molesters Four types of situational child molesters: (1) Compensating (regressed) type primarily intra-familial victims (incest) exploit their authority as parents and/or adults use non-violent strategies, like seduction generally have a good response to treatment

Situational child molesters (2) Psychopaths 0.5% of the population; 5% of child molesters “without conscience” victims chosen by availability, vulnerability strategies: luring, manipulation; may use force respond poorly to treatment, require incarceration

Situational child molesters Normalized type life-long pattern, inter-generational almost 100% are victims of childhood sexual abuse sexual offending is an almost continuous pattern victims are often family and friends fair response to treatment

Situational child molesters Sexualized type multiple paraphilias present wide range of sexual behavior victims based on availability motivation is to offset boredom strategy: abuse embedded into an on-going activity treatment is difficult; fair-to-poor prognosis

Preferential child molesters Have a strong sexual preference for children These “fixated” child molesters are considered stuck at a young stage in their own sexual development Pedophiles: strong sexual preference for children under the age of puberty Hebephiles: strong sexual preference for children at or just above onset of puberty

Preferential child molesters Three types identified: (1) Seductive type very child-oriented; highly identified with children use of non-violent strategies, like seduction strong age and gender preferences 50% prefer boys, 25% prefer girls, 25% both treatment is difficult; prognosis is poor

Preferential child molesters Inadequate type two subtypes: psychiatric condition, mental deficiency often socially isolated w/ poor social skills impulse control often poor victim choice often indiscriminant offenses are sexual only, often non-verbal prognosis is limited; medication helps

Preferential child molesters Sadistic type strong arousal to inflicting pain strong age and gender preferences strategies include rape, kidnapping, murder concurrent psychiatric problems treatment prognosis is very poor, risk level very high. Work to incarcerate.

Stage model for molestation Five stages: 1. Engagement: “grooming” behaviors 2. Sexual interaction: progression along the continuum to more intrusive acts 3. Secrecy strategies 4. Disclosure: Accidental or purposeful 5. Retraction (by Suzanne Sgroi, M.D.)

Juvenile sex offenders Include all of the above types, as well as: Curiosity-motivated young juveniles usually awkward, naïve motivation is to satisfy curiosity about sex severity of abuse may escalate over time good response to treatment, especially if parents are willing to become involved

Female sex offenders Make up about 7-8% of all convicted sex offenders, thought to be under-represented due to differential reporting and prosecution. Four types identified: Normalized Male – coerced victim / offender Inadequate Lover / teacher seductive (preferential)

Female sex offenders Normalized type life-long pattern of sexual acting out family and friends are most likely victims almost all are victims of childhood sexual abuse difficult to treat successfully

Female sex offenders Male-coerced victim - offender sex is coerced by male partner, at least initially woman seen as both victim and offender victims are those imposed by male perpetrator treatment prognosis is good

Female sex offenders Inadequate type often mentally disordered or mentally delayed poor coping skills, poor social skills alcohol abuse/dependence over-represented victims are often family members prognosis is fair; medication helps

Female sex offenders Lover / teacher seductive type usually child-oriented, identified with the child age and gender preferences strategies: seduction and teaching may include preferential-type sex offenders (pedophiles, hebephiles)

Non-contact sex offenders Includes exposing, voyeurs (“Peeping Toms”), sexual harassment, obscene phone calls, etc.. (Paraphilic behaviors) If an individual is engaging in one of these activities, there is an 88% likelihood that he is also engaging in at least one other paraphilic behavior. Polygraph studies show that many of these offenders also have contact sex offenses.

Evaluation of sex offenders Aspects of a specialized sex offender eval (1) Review of background documentation, including victim statements (2) Interviews of offender (3) Interviews of collateral sources (4) Psychological testing Self-report tests Actuarial tests

Evaluation of sex offenders (5) Testing of sexual interests Penile plethysmograph Viewing time measures (6) Polygraph testing: Instant offense polygraph History of sexual offending polygraph Compliance with Conditions of Probation/Parole

Evaluation of sex offenders Risk Assessment Several measures found to do a fairly good job in predicting: risk of sexual re-offense (Static-99, RRASOR) risk of general re-offense (LSI) risk of violent re-offense (VRAG)

“Predicting things is difficult, especially when they’re in the future “Predicting things is difficult, especially when they’re in the future.” Yogi Berra

ATSA Guidelines (2005) 18.07 Members conducting risk assessments use an actuarial risk assessment instrument that is appropriate for the client population being evaluated (p. 16).

Risk Instruments in Programs for Adult Males McGrath, Cumming, & Burchard (2003) 381 of 613 programs (62.1%) use one or more of these instruments 20.7% 34.4% 5.4% 53.2% 9.1%

Risk Principle 2-Year Sexual or Violent Re-Convictions Friendship, Mann, & Beech (2003) Percent Static-99 Risk Category

Types of Risk Assessment Strategies Intuitive Clinical Actuarial Adjusted Actuarial

Advantages of Actuarial Approach Objectivity Uniformity Consistency Equality mcgrath

Static Predictors of Sexual Recidivism (Hanson & Bussiere, 1998; Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004)

Risk Prediction Methods for Adults Predictive Validity by Offense Type

Static-99 Hanson & Thornton (1999) Prior Sex Offenses* Prior Sentencing Dates Non-Contact Offenses Index Non-sexual Violence Prior Non-sexual Violence Unrelated Victim* Stranger Victim Male Victim* Young* Single *Items on RRASOR

Static-99 Hanson & Thornton (1999) Percent Sexual Recidivism Score (% of Sample)

Static-99 Sexual Recidivism Percentages

Dynamic Predictors of Sexual Recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004)

Dynamic Predictors of Sexual Recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2004)

Static - 99 Purpose: To estimate the probability of sexual and violent recidivism. Who do I use it on: ADULT MALE offenders who have been convicted of at least one sex offense against a child or adult. Who should I NOT use it on? Youth (under eighteen years old at time of release) Females Offenders convicted of possession/dissemination of child pornography Offenses related to prostitution (soliciting, pimping)

Item 1: Prior sex offense convictions / charges To be considered a sex offense, the crime does not need to be sex offense per se. Examples: Unlawful Imprisonment (kidnapping), if the intent was to commit a rape, Burglary, if the intent was to steal underwear or other fetish items Criminal Trespassing, if the intent was voyeuristic (Peeping Tom) activity

Item 1: Prior sex offense convictions / charges Sexual Misbehavior is divided into two categories: Category A includes sexual behavior with minors or non-consenting adults Category B includes sexual behavior that is illegal, but: (1) the parties are consenting (e.g., consensual sex in public place) OR (2) there is no specific victim involved (e.g., possession of child pornography, failure to register as a sex offender).

Item 1: Prior sex offense convictions / charges The “Index offense” is the most recent sex offense (charge or conviction) For sex offenses to be counted separately, the second offense must have been committed after the offender was charged with the first offense Historical offenses detected after conviction are not counted as prior offenses

Item 1: Prior sex offense convictions / charges Score is based on either the number of convictions or number of charges stemming from sexual misbehavior, whichever is higher None 0 1 conviction / 1-2 charges 1 2-3 convictions / 3-5 charges 2 4+ convictions / 6+ charges 3

Item 2: Prior sentencing dates Count the number of distinct occasions that the offender has been sentenced for any criminal offense. Index offense is not counted. Violations are not counted – only misdemeanor or felony (criminal) offenses Scoring 3 or fewer 0 4 or more 1

Item 3: Any convictions for non-contact sex offenses Includes convictions for non-contact sex offenses such as: exhibitionism (exposing), obscene phone calls, possession of child pornography, voyeuristic acts, fetish burglary Count convictions only, not charges Scoring: None 0 One or more 1

Item 4: Index offense – any non-sexual violence Convictions for violent acts which occurred in the commission of the index offense (e.g., Assault, conviction stemming from use of a weapon). Scoring: No 0 Yes 1

Item 5: Prior non-sexual violence Any conviction stemming from a violent act, prior to the index offense Scoring: No 0 Yes 1

Item 6: Any unrelated victim A related victim is one where the relationship would be sufficiently close that marriage would normally be prohibited (e.g., parent, uncle, grandparent, step-sister) Spouses (inc. common-law) are related Step-relationships less than 2 years are considered unrelated. Scoring: No 0 Any unrelated victim 1

Item 7: Any stranger victim A victim is considered a stranger if the victim did not know the offender 24 hours before the offense. Scoring: No 0 Any stranger victim 1

Item 8: Any male victim Include any sex offense involving a male victim Do NOT count possession of child pornography Do NOT count exposing to mixed groups of children UNLESS there is evidence that the offender was targeting boys. Scoring: No 0 Any male victim 1

Item 9: Young Refers to sex offender’s age at the time of the risk assessment. Note that Static-99 applies only to sex offenders who are over 18 years old at the time they are being rated. Scoring: Age 25 or older 0 Age 18 to 24.99 years 1

Item 10: Single Offender is considered single if he has never lived with an adult lover for more than two years. Cohabitation must be continuous, with the same person. Person must have had the opportunity to live with a lover. Male lovers in prison do not count. Scoring: Yes 0 No 1

Translating Static-99 score into risk categories Risk Level Score 5 10 15 at 10 years yrs yrs yrs Low 0 5% 11% 13% 1 6% 7% 7% Low-moderate 2 9% 13% 16% 3 12% 14% 19% High-moderate 4 26% 31% 36% 5 33% 38% 40% High 6+ 39% 45% 52%

Reporting the Static-99 Score John scored a “3,” so is at low-moderate risk. You CANNOT report that he has a risk of re-offending of 12 percent at five years, 14 percent at ten years, and 19 percent at 15 years.

Reporting the Static-99 Score You CAN write: “John scored a “3” on the Static-99, which places him in the low-moderate risk category. Of the sex offenders with this score, some 12 percent were re-convicted for a sex offense within 5 years, 14 percent were re-convicted of a sex offense within ten years, and a total of 19 percent were re-convicted of a sex offense within fifteen years.”

Sexual Re-offense Rates “Official”rates based on Harris & Hanson (2004) “Estimated” rates based on Hanson, Morton, & Harris (2003) 10 samples; n=4,724 Percent 14% 20% 24% 27% 25% 35% 40% 45% Years in Community

Reporting the Static-99 Score You can add: “The research suggests that the actual re-offense rate is about fifteen percent higher than the re-conviction rate by the ten year mark. This suggests that, for sex offenders with this score, approximately 29 percent have committed another sex offense within ten years.”

For further assistance: Contact the Capital District Coalition for Sex Offender Management, at: CDCSOM.com (518) 489-7971 or the Canadian website, at: www.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca Click: English Click: Corrections Click: Publications