Outlook for wine and wine grapes Dr. Caroline Gunning-Trant Economist ABARE

Industry observations low prices cancellation / non-renewal of contracts Wine Restructure Action Agenda (WRAA)

Export Dependence Exports 64% Exports 38% Domestic 62% Domestic 36% Total sales: 564 million litresTotal sales: 1,180 million litres

Major Export Markets Million Litres Bulk

Exports by price category 62% 76% 85%

Australian Wine Exports

Domestic Wine Consumption Domestic Litres per person Imports

Assumptions THIS VINTAGE: heat wave in November reduced data availability from ABS - sample only - only 10 major varieties - multipurpose grapes excluded no assumption about grubbings FUTURE VINTAGES average yields no extreme weather events national bearing area to decline from

Wine Grape Production

Summary continued decline of wine grape prices pressure on wine grape growers given price expectations speed and extent of industry restructure unknown world markets

End_title slide

Australian wine imports