The Election

Ray Fair Model GOODNEWS: Number of quarters of an administration in which the growth rate of real per capita GDP is greater than 3.2 percent at annual rate GOODNEWS VOTEVOTE VOTE: Republican share of two-party presidential vote in election The vote equation for 2012 is then: VOTE = C +.B*GROWTH -.B*INFLATION + B*GOODNEWS

National Party identification

National (Dem.) National (Rep.) South (Dem.)South (Rep.)Non-South (Dem.) Non-South (Rep.) 1940 to to to to to to to Party Identification by Decade

Obama as Divider Average R approval Average D approval Gap Obama year 2 13 percent 83 percent 70% Obama Year 3 12 percent 84 percent 72% Independents will decide who wins

How Independents Vote in Presidential Elections (Exit Polls) Source: National Election Pool

How Independents Vote in House Elections (Exit Polls) Source: National Election Pool

47 45

Gallup Most Important Problem (June 2012) Economy (General)31 % Unemployment25 Government12 Federal Budget Deficit11 Healthcare 6 Lack of money 5 Ethical / Moral decline 4 Education 4

The Presidential Election: Historical Approval Richard NixonDwight EisenhowerJimmy Carter Ronald ReaganBill Clinton George W. Bush George H.W. Bush Barack Obama

2008: Obama 365, McCain 173 MA-12 MT-3 WA-11 OR-7 CA-54 NV-4 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-8 WY-3 CO-8 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-8 KS-6 TX-32 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA-7 MN-10 IL-22 WI -11 IN-12 KY-8 TN-11 MS-7 AL-9 SC-8 GA-13 FL-25 NC-14 VA-13 WV-5 OH-21 PA-23 NY-33 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-8 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-18 NH-4 Obama McCain Strategy & the 2008 Electoral College

Changed Electorate Minority voters (80% Obama) UP 3% from 2008 White working class (41% Obama) DOWN from 2008 by 3% Examples: Nevada minority vote UP 9% from 08 While white working class is DOWN 5% Wisconsin : minorities UP 3% white working class DOWN 7%

2012 ELECTORAL COLLEGE ANALYSIS Republicans need to pick-up 90 Electoral Votes MA-11 MT-3 WA-11 OR-8 CA-54 NV ID-4 UT-6 NM AZ-10 WY-3 CO NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-8 KS-6 TX-36 LA-8 AR-6 MO-10 IA MN IL-21 WI IN-12 KY-8 TN-11 MS-7 AL-9 SC-9 GA-14 FL NC VA WV-5 OH PA NY-32 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-8 NJ-14 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH Strategy & the 2012 Electoral College Swing states both Democratic and Republican

MT OR-7 CA-55 NV ID-4 UT-5 NM AZ WY-3 CO NE-5 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-34 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA MN-10 IL-21 WI IN TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL NC VA WV-5 OH PA NY-31 NH- Strategy & the 2012 Electoral College The battleground states for

Things not to pay attention to.

The Public’s Interest Average # of Viewers (Millions) Source: Nielsen Media Research. GOP Data: American Idol 29.3 Dancing with the Stars Broke Girls Florida GOP Debate 5.4 O’Reilly 3.6 Fox News 2.7 Rachel Maddow 0.4

YouGov Campaign Poll “In a press conference last week, President Obama was asked about the state of the economy. How did he describe economic growth in the private sector?” “The private sector is doing fine.”47% “The private sector is struggling.” 9 “The private sector is mostly the same as it was.” 4 “I didn’t hear what he said.”39

Other Examples Romney “very poor”34 % Obama “birth control mandate”26 Santorum “birth control”43 Romney “Etch-A-Sketch”45

What did Obama Say? (6/16-18) Didn’t hear Male30 Female48 Democrat43 Republican35 Independent29

Santorum’s Position? (3/3-6) Didn’t hear Male34 Female52 Democrat39 Republican48 Independent36

The Republican Nomination Contest Iowa Caucus6.5 % New Hampshire Primary 31.1 South Carolina Primary 17.6 Florida Primary 12.8 Nevada Caucus1.9 Minnesota Caucus*1.2 Colorado Caucus1.8 Missouri Primary7.4 Maine Caucus*.5

Betting pools President

Most competitive House seats (242R – 191D). TX-27 (Open - R)14. MD-6 (Bartlett - R) 2. IL-11 (Open - R)15. IL-10 (Dold - R) 3. IL-8 (Open - R)16. FL-22 (Open - R) 4. CA-41 (Open - R)17. NH-2 (Bass - R) 5. NC-13 (Open - D)18. IL-12 (Open - D) 6. CA-31 (Miller - R)19. NC-7 (McIntyre - D) 7. IN-2 (Open - D)20. CA-7 (Lungren - R) 8. IL-17 (Schilling - R)21. UT-4 (Matheson - D) 9. NC-11 (Open - D)22. WA-1 (Open - D) 10. NC-8 (Kissell - D)23. CA-24 (Capps - D) 11. GA-12 (Barrow - D)24. NV-3 (Heck - R) 12. AR-4 (Open - D)25. MN-8 (Cravaack –R) 13. OK-2 (Open – D)

Democrat Connecticut Hawaii Michigan New Mexico Ohio Toss Ups Florida Massachusetts Missouri Montana Nevada North Dakota Virginia Republicans Arizona Indiana Nebraska Wisconsin 47 Democrats Five lean or solid Republican Two lean or solid Democrat One toss-up 45 Republicans

Betting pools House

Betting pools Senate

The End Thank You

MA-12 MT-3 OR-7 CA-55 NV-6 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-10 WY-3 CO-9 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-38 LA-9 AR-6 MO-10 IA-6 MN-10 IL-21 WI -10 IN-11 KY-8 TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL-29 NC-15 VA-13 OH-18 PA-20 NY-31 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH-4 Best Hopes for Changes from Wash 11 WV

MA-12 MT-3 OR-7 CA-55 NV-5 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-10 WY-3 CO-9 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-34 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA-7 MN-10 IL-21 WI -10 IN-11 KY-8 TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL-27 NC-15 VA-13 OH-20 PA-21 NY-31 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH-4 Electoral College 2008 Wash 11 WV

I was just going over the primary rules and polls today, and I noticed >> that Romney has a huge advantage in the Winner Take All primaries >> (Arizona, California, Florida, New Jersey, Utah). They account for >> 375 delegates, and he leads (or has won) in almost all of these WTA >> states. If he stays up in the polls in those states (as he currently >> is) it will be very hard for Santorum to catch Romney in delegates, >> even if Santorum wins a larger share of the vote in the primaries. >> What are the chances that Santorum beats Romney in California? >> >> In this respect, the GOP primaries resemble the Gary Hart v. Walter >> Mondale contest.

WAR

The Road to the 2012 U.S. National Elections David Brady and Morris Fiorina Hoover Institution July 11, 2012

“A week in politics is a long time” (4 months in politics is a very long time)

Gallup Trial Heats August 1948: Dewey > Truman + 11 August 1976: Carter > Ford + 22 August 1980: Carter = Reagan even August 1988: Dukakis > Bush + 12 August 2000: Bush > Gore + 7 August 2008: Obama = McCain even

Republican Nomination Contest Santorum Romney

Road Map Where is U.S. coming from (politically)? What happened between 2008 and 2012? The 2012 election (Brady)

Republican Realignment? PresHouseSenate 2000 R R R 2002 R R R 2004 R R R

Karl Rove “The real prize is creating a Republican majority that would be as solid as, say, the Democratic coalition that Franklin Roosevelt created--a majority that would last for a generation …” (Nicholas Lemann interview, New Yorker, May 12, 2003.

2006: Republican “Thumpin” House -30 seats Senate - 6 seats Governors - 6 states

James Carville, More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2009)

2010: The Great Shellacking House63 seats Senate 6 seats Governors 7 states State Legislatures ~17 chambers State Legislators 675 +

Patterns of Institutional Control PresHouseSenate 2004 R R R 2006 R D D 2008 D D D 2010 D R D

Normal People Uninformed, Confused, Ambivalent (Busy)  Not Extreme, Pragmatic, Not Ideological

Little Change in Partisanship Source: ANES

Little Change in Voter Ideology Source: GSS

Political Overreach Lyndon Johnson Jimmy Carter Bill Clinton Newt Gingrich George W. Bush Barack Obama ?

George W. Bush “I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it.” (2004) “On social security, I may have misread the electoral mandate …” (2010)

“… generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children … that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs for the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.” Barack Obama, June 4, 2008

Approval Rating of George W. Bush Source: The Gallup Organization

State of the Country: Right Direction v. Wrong Track Note: July 9 th, 2012 most recent data point

Obama Job Approval Note: Latest data from July 9, 2012.

Health Care Plan Note: Latest data from 12/7/2011.

Obama Job Approval: Independents Note: Latest data from 2/21/2012