1. The Honorable Kenneth B. Mehlman
The 2002 Challenge
June 4, 2002
The Honorable Kenneth B. Mehlman
Deputy Assistant to the President
and Director of Political Affairs

2. Competitive Republicans (25)
2002 Election Outlook
Senate
Governors
Democrat Seats
Strong chance of R pickup - 5
Possible R pickup - 3
Republican Seats
Possible D Pickup - 6
Strong Chance of D Pickup - 2
No Contest - 18
Democrat Seats
Strong chance of R pickup - 5
Possible R pickup - 8
Republican Seats
Possible D Pickup - 6
Strong Chance of D Pickup - 9
No Contest - 8
House
Competitive Republicans (25)
Tier 1- Competitive - 11
Tier 2- Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8
Tier 3- Worth Watching - 6
Vulnerable Democrats (10)
Open Seats (19)

3. Competitive Republican Seats
Battle for the House
Competitive Republican Seats AK NH WA VT ME MT ND MN MA OR NY ID SD WI RI MI WY CT PA IA NJ NE OH NV IN DE IL UT WV VA MD CO CA KS MO KY NC DC TN OK AZ SC NM AR GA MS AL TX LA HI FL
Competitive Republican Seats (25)
Tier 1- Competitive - 11
Tier 2- Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8
Tier 3- Worth Watching - 6

4. Vulnerable Democrat Seats
Battle for the House
Vulnerable Democrat Seats AK NH WA VT ME MT ND MN MA OR NY ID SD WI RI MI WY CT PA IA NJ NE OH NV IN DE IL UT WV VA MD CO CA KS MO KY NC DC TN OK AZ SC NM AR GA MS AL TX LA HI FL
Competitive Republican Seats (25)
Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10)

5. Competitive Open Seats
Battle for the House
Competitive Open Seats AK NH WA VT ME MT ND MN MA OR WI NY ID SD RI MI WY CT PA IA NJ NE OH IN DE NV IL UT WV VA MD CO CA KS MO KY NC DC TN OK AZ SC NM AR GA MS AL TX LA HI FL
Competitive Republican Seats (25)
Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10)
Competitive Open Seats (19)

6. Battle for the Senate Strong Chance of R Pickup (5)AK NH
+1% NH ME
-5% ME WA VT MT
+25% MT ND MN
-2% MN MA OR
-0% OR WI NY ID SD
+23% SD RI MI WY CT NJ
-15% NJ IA
-0% IA PA NE OH NV IN DE IL UT WV VA MD CO
+9% CA KS MO
+3% MO KY NC
+13% NC DC TN
TN +4% OK AZ SC AR
+5% AR NM GA
+12% GA MS AL LA
+7% LA HI TX
+21%
Strong Chance of R Pickup (5) FL
Possible R Pickup (3)
Possible D Pickup (6)
Strong Chance of D Pickup (2)
2000 Bush Margin (%) shown
No Contest (18)

7. Battle for the StatehouseAK
+31% NH
+1.3% NH ME
-5.1% ME WA VT
-10% MT MT ND MA
-27% MN
-2% MN NY
-25% OR
-0% OR WI
-0% ID SD SD MI
-5%
RI -29% CT
-17% WY PA
-4% NJ IA
-0% IA NE OH
+3% IL
-12% NV IN DE UT WV VA MD
-16% CO
+9% CA
-12% KS MO MO KY NC NC DC
TN +4% TN SC
+16% OK AZ
+7% AR AR NM
-0% AL
+15% GA
+12% MS GA HI
-18% TX
+22% LA FL
+0%
Strong Chance of R Pickup (5)
Possible R Pickup (8)
Possible D Pickup (6)
Strong Chance of D Pickup (9)
2000 Bush Margin (%) shown
No Contest (8)

8. 2002 Campaign Outlook 2002 1st Quarter Finances ($ millions)

9. What We’ll Face 2000 Political Expenditures
AFL-CIO $45.0 million
Emily’s List $20.0 million
Planned Parenthood $14.0 million
NAACP $11.0 million
Sierra Club $ 9.5 million
NEA $ 9.0 million
NARAL $ 8.0 million
Handgun Control $ 5.0 million
LCV $ 4.0 million
$125.5 million

11. The Strategic Landscape The Honorable Karl C. Rove
June 4, 2002
The Honorable Karl C. Rove
Senior Advisor to the President

12. Public Opinion Summary of Recent Data
President’s approval rating still very strong
Ratings at post-crisis high longer than any in history
Durability is testament to President’s leadership
Decline is natural and expected
Rally effect fades as partisan allegiances reassert themselves
No evidence that Enron attacks, POTUS political activity or economy has significantly impacted the President’s rating
Republican Party is in strong position
Congressional Republicans & Democrats at parity in the generic ballot - Republicans trailed in 1994
GOP support on key issues

13. Public Opinion Summary of Recent Data
Economic outlook
Confidence in current economy low
Americans optimistic about economic future

14. Unprecedented Support
Gallup Presidential Job Approval
Office of Strategic Initiatives

15. Presidential Job Approval Analysis
Public Poll Average
Office of Strategic Initiatives
5/28/02
Based on Gallup, Fox, ABC/WP, IBD & CBS/NYT

16. One Party Will Make History
For Republicans: White House party has won House seats in only 3 out of last 25 midterm elections
For Democrats: Only 3 times has either party gained House seats 4 elections in a row
For Republicans: White House party has lost Senate seats in 16 of 22 mid-terms since direct election
Office of Strategic Initiatives

17. Presidents’ Standing Matters
Average House Seats Lost by WH Party in Mid-Terms
Presidential Approval <50% 41 lost
Presidential Approval 50%-59% 20 lost
Presidential Approval 60%+ 5 lost
Office of Strategic Initiatives
Source: NBC/WSJ

18. Mid-Term Political Landscape
More Favorable to Republicans
Control of Congress will turn on handful of races decided by local issues, candidate quality, money raised, campaign performance, etc.
Extremely Popular President
Recovering Economy
Increased Importance of National Security Issues
Redistricting
No Compelling National Issue for Referendum
Small Number of Competitive Races
Office of Strategic Initiatives

19. Democratic Strategy Support President on War
Question President’s Middle East Strategy
Attack on Domestic Agenda -- Social Security, Health Care Costs, Environment, Education
Use Budget, Tax Cuts and Enron for Class Warfare
Divide President and Congressional Republicans
Maximize Outside Resources
Office of Strategic Initiatives

20. Republican Strategy Focus on War and Economy
Promote Compassion Agenda -- Education, Welfare, Faith
Highlight Democrats’ Obstructionism on Judges, Agenda
Mobilize GOP Base, Reach Out to Hispanics, Unions, African-Americans
Strong Teamwork between White House, Political Committees and Members
Maximize Outside Resources and Create New Forums
Office of Strategic Initiatives

21. 2002 Bush Outreach MAINTAIN Base Coal & Steel Farmers Ranchers GROW
Latinos
Suburbs (esp. Women)
Catholics
Union Members
Wired Workers
EXPAND
Believers
IMPROVE
African Americans
Office of Strategic Initiatives

22. Change in Electoral Apportionment
2000
Bush 271
Gore 267
2004
Bush 278
Gore 260
AK-3
NH-4
WA-11
ME-4
MT-3
VT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
NY-31 -2
OR-7
WI -10 -1
ID-4
SD-3
MI-17 -1
RI-4
WY-3
PA-21 -2
CT-7 -1
IA-7
NJ-15
NE-5
OH-20 -1
IL-21 -1
DE-3
NV-5 +1
IN-11 -1
UT-5
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9 +1
CA-55 +1
KS-6
MO-11
KY-8
NC-15 +1
DC-3
TN-11
OK-7 -1
AZ-10 +2
SC-8
NM-5
AR-6
MS-6 -1
AL-9
GA-15 +2
TX-34 +2
LA-9
HI-4
FL-27 +2
Bush Carried 2000
Gore Carried 2000

23. Won by Less Than 5% 78 Electoral Votes AK-3 NH-4 WA-11 ME-4 MT-3 VT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
WI -10
NY-31
ID-4
SD-3
RI-4
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-21
IA-7
NJ-15
NE-5
IL-21
OH-20
DE-3
NV-5
UT-5
IN-11
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
CA-55
KS-6
MO-11
KY-8
NC-15
DC-3
TN-11
OK-7
AZ-10
SC-8
NM-5
AR-6
MS-6
AL-9
GA-15
TX-34
LA-9
HI-4
FL-27

24. Lost By Less Than 1% 29 Electoral Votes -- 307 EVs AK-3 NH-4 WA-11
ME-4
MT-3
VT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
WI -10
NY-31
ID-4
SD-3
RI-4
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-21
IA-7
NJ-15
NE-5
IL-21
OH-20
DE-3
NV-5
UT-5
IN-11
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
CA-55
KS-6
MO-11
KY-8
NC-15
DC-3
TN-11
OK-7
AZ-10
SC-8
NM-5
AR-6
MS-6
AL-9
GA-15
TX-34
LA-9
HI-4
FL-27

25. Lost By 1-5% 63 Electoral Votes -- 370 EVs AK-3 NH-4 WA-11 ME-4 MT-3
VT-3
ND-3
MA-12
MN-10
OR-7
WI -10
NY-31
ID-4
SD-3
RI-4
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-21
IA-7
NJ-15
NE-5
IL-21
OH-20
DE-3
NV-5
UT-5
IN-11
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
CA-55
KS-6
MO-11
KY-8
NC-15
DC-3
TN-11
OK-7
AZ-10
SC-8
NM-5
AR-6
MS-6
AL-9
GA-15
TX-34
LA-9
HI-4
FL-27

26. Special Concerns AK-3 NH-4 WA-11 ME-4 MT-3 VT-3 ND-3 MA-12 MN-10 OR-7
WI -10
NY-31
ID-4
SD-3
RI-4
MI-17
WY-3
CT-7
PA-21
IA-7
NJ-15
NE-5
IL-21
OH-20
DE-3
NV-5
UT-5
IN-11
WV-5
VA-13
MD-10
CO-9
CA-55
KS-6
MO-11
KY-8
NC-15
DC-3
TN-11
OK-7
AZ-10
SC-8
NM-5
AR-6
MS-6
AL-9
GA-15
TX-34
LA-9
HI-4
FL-27

27. Rep. Charles Rangel (D-Harlem) drew cheers when he hailed Clinton as "the last elected president of the U.S." and said, "It is our job to say we're not getting over Florida."