1. The 2002 Challenge June 4, 2002 The Honorable Kenneth B. Mehlman Deputy Assistant to the President and Director of Political Affairs

2. 2002 Election Outlook Democrat Seats Strong chance of R pickup - 5 Possible R pickup - 3 Republican Seats Possible D Pickup - 6 Strong Chance of D Pickup - 2 No Contest - 18 Democrat Seats Strong chance of R pickup - 5 Possible R pickup - 8 Republican Seats Possible D Pickup - 6 Strong Chance of D Pickup - 9 No Contest - 8 Competitive Republicans (25) Open Seats (19) Vulnerable Democrats (10) Tier 1- Competitive - 11 Tier 2- Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8 Tier 3- Worth Watching - 6 House SenateGovernors

3. Battle for the House Competitive Republican Seats MA MT WA OR CA NV ID UT NM AZ WY CO NE SD ND OK KS TX LA AR MO IA MN IL WI IN KY TN MS AL SC GA FL NC VA WV OH PA NY ME VT RI CT NJ DE MD DC HI AK MI NH Competitive Republican Seats (25) Tier 1- Competitive - 11 Tier 2- Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8 Tier 3- Worth Watching - 6

4. Battle for the House Vulnerable Democrat Seats MA MT WA OR CA NV ID UT NM AZ WY CO NE SD ND OK KS TX LA AR MO IA MN IL WI IN KY TN MS AL SC GA FL NC VA WV OH PA NY ME VT RI CT NJ DE MD DC HI AK MI NH Competitive Republican Seats (25) Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10)

5. Battle for the House Competitive Open Seats MA MT WA OR CA NV ID UT NM AZ WY CO NE SD ND OK KS TX LA AR MO IA MN IL WI IN KY TN MS AL SC GA FL NC VA WV OH PA NY ME VT RI CT NJ DE MD DC HI AK MI NH Competitive Republican Seats (25) Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10) Competitive Open Seats (19)

6. MA WA OR CA NV ID UT AZ WY NE ND OK KS TX +21% AR MO IA MN IL WI IN KY TN MS AL SC FL NC VA WV OH PA NY ME VT RI CT NJ DE MD DC HI AK MI NH Battle for the Senate 2000 Bush Margin (%) shown Strong Chance of R Pickup (5) MT SD LA GA MT +25% SD +23% LA +7% GA +12% MO +3% IA -0% MN -2% NJ -15% CO +9% OR -0% AR +5% NC +13% NH +1% ME -5% NM TN +4% Possible R Pickup (3) Possible D Pickup (6) Strong Chance of D Pickup (2) No Contest (18)

7. MA -27% WA OR CA -12% NV ID UT AZ +7% WY NE ND OK KS TX +22% AR MO IA MN IL -12% WI -0% IN KY TN MS AL +15% SC +16% FL +0% NC VA WV OH +3% PA -4% NY -25% ME VT -10% RI -29% CT -17% NJ DE MD -16% DC HI -18% AK +31% MI -5% NH 2000 Bush Margin (%) shown Strong Chance of R Pickup (5) MT SD GA MT SD LA MO IA -0% MN -2% CO +9% OR -0% AR NC NH +1.3% ME -5.1% NM -0% Possible R Pickup (8) Possible D Pickup (6) Strong Chance of D Pickup (9) TN +4% GA +12% Battle for the Statehouse No Contest (8)

8. 2002 Campaign Outlook 2002 1st Quarter Finances ($ millions)

9. What We’ll Face 2000 Political Expenditures AFL-CIO$45.0 million Emily’s List $20.0 million Planned Parenthood$14.0 million NAACP$11.0 million Sierra Club$ 9.5 million NEA$ 9.0 million NARAL$ 8.0 million Handgun Control$ 5.0 million LCV$ 4.0 million $125.5 million

11. The Strategic Landscape June 4, 2002 The Honorable Karl C. Rove Senior Advisor to the President

12. Public Opinion Summary of Recent Data Ratings at post-crisis high longer than any in history Durability is testament to President’s leadership President’s approval rating still very strong Rally effect fades as partisan allegiances reassert themselves No evidence that Enron attacks, POTUS political activity or economy has significantly impacted the President’s rating Decline is natural and expected Republican Party is in strong position Congressional Republicans & Democrats at parity in the generic ballot - Republicans trailed in 1994 GOP support on key issues

13. Public Opinion Summary of Recent Data Confidence in current economy low Americans optimistic about economic future Economic outlook

14. Unprecedented Support Gallup Presidential Job Approval Office of Strategic Initiatives

15. Presidential Job Approval Analysis Public Poll Average Office of Strategic Initiatives 5/28/02 Based on Gallup, Fox, ABC/WP, IBD & CBS/NYT

16. One Party Will Make History Office of Strategic Initiatives For Republicans: White House party has won House seats in only 3 out of last 25 midterm elections For Democrats: Only 3 times has either party gained House seats 4 elections in a row For Republicans: White House party has lost Senate seats in 16 of 22 mid-terms since direct election

17. Average House Seats Lost by WH Party in Mid-Terms Presidential Approval <50%41 lost Presidential Approval 50%-59%20 lost Presidential Approval 60%+ 5 lost Source: NBC/WSJ Presidents’ Standing Matters Office of Strategic Initiatives

18. Mid-Term Political Landscape More Favorable to Republicans Office of Strategic Initiatives Control of Congress will turn on handful of races decided by local issues, candidate quality, money raised, campaign performance, etc. Extremely Popular President Recovering Economy Increased Importance of National Security Issues Redistricting No Compelling National Issue for Referendum Small Number of Competitive Races

19. Democratic Strategy Support President on War Question President’s Middle East Strategy Attack on Domestic Agenda -- Social Security, Health Care Costs, Environment, Education Use Budget, Tax Cuts and Enron for Class Warfare Divide President and Congressional Republicans Maximize Outside Resources Office of Strategic Initiatives

20. Republican Strategy Office of Strategic Initiatives Focus on War and Economy Promote Compassion Agenda -- Education, Welfare, Faith Highlight Democrats’ Obstructionism on Judges, Agenda Mobilize GOP Base, Reach Out to Hispanics, Unions, African-Americans Strong Teamwork between White House, Political Committees and Members Maximize Outside Resources and Create New Forums

21. 2002 Bush Outreach GROW Latinos Suburbs (esp. Women) Catholics Union Members Wired Workers EXPAND Believers IMPROVE African Americans MAINTAIN Base Coal & Steel Farmers Ranchers Office of Strategic Initiatives

22. MA-12 MT-3 WA-11 OR-7 CA-55 +1 NV-5 +1 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-10 +2 WY-3 CO-9 +1 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-34 +2 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA-7 MN-10 IL-21 WI -10 IN-11 KY-8 TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 +2 FL-27 +2 NC-15 +1 VA-13 WV-5 OH-20 PA-21 -2 NY-31 -2 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH-4 2000 Bush271 Gore 267 2000 Bush271 Gore 267 2004 Bush278 Gore 260 2004 Bush278 Gore 260 Change in Electoral Apportionment Bush Carried 2000 Gore Carried 2000

23. MA-12 MT-3 WA-11 OR-7 CA-55 NV-5 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-10 WY-3 CO-9 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-34 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA-7 MN-10 IL-21 WI -10 IN-11 KY-8 TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL-27 NC-15 VA-13 WV-5 OH-20 PA-21 NY-31 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH-4 Won by Less Than 5% 78 Electoral Votes

24. MA-12 MT-3 WA-11 OR-7 CA-55 NV-5 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-10 WY-3 CO-9 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-34 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA-7 MN-10 IL-21 WI -10 IN-11 KY-8 TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL-27 NC-15 VA-13 WV-5 OH-20 PA-21 NY-31 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH-4 Lost By Less Than 1% 29 Electoral Votes -- 307 EVs

25. MA-12 MT-3 WA-11 OR-7 CA-55 NV-5 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-10 WY-3 CO-9 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-34 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA-7 MN-10 IL-21 WI -10 IN-11 KY-8 TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL-27 NC-15 VA-13 WV-5 OH-20 PA-21 NY-31 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH-4 Lost By 1-5% 63 Electoral Votes -- 370 EVs

26. MA-12 MT-3 WA-11 OR-7 CA-55 NV-5 ID-4 UT-5 NM-5 AZ-10 WY-3 CO-9 NE-5 SD-3 ND-3 OK-7 KS-6 TX-34 LA-9 AR-6 MO-11 IA-7 MN-10 IL-21 WI -10 IN-11 KY-8 TN-11 MS-6 AL-9 SC-8 GA-15 FL-27 NC-15 VA-13 WV-5 OH-20 PA-21 NY-31 ME-4 VT-3 RI-4 CT-7 NJ-15 DE-3 MD-10 DC-3 HI-4 AK-3 MI-17 NH-4 Special Concerns

27. Rep. Charles Rangel (D-Harlem) drew cheers when he hailed Clinton as "the last elected president of the U.S." and said, "It is our job to say we're not getting over Florida."