Waltz’s Neorealism

N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Balance of Power as a Reaction to a Threat: Napoleon, Major Powers: FRA, UK, RUS, PRUS, AUS Russia After French Revolution (1789), Napoleon Bonaparte rises to power. -- Consul (1802) -- Emperor of France (1804) Continues military campaigns to build empire and feed war machine. -- Poses major threat to Europe UK, RUS, PRUS, AUS form “coalitions” against FRA -- Napoleon defeated (1814) -- Congress of Vienna (1814) -- Napoleon returns (1815) -- Waterloo (1815)

N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S BoP as a Peaceful Equilibrium: Concert of Europe, After Napoleonic Wars, Congress of Vienna continues (1815) Defeated France let back into “club” Quadruple Alliance: Austria, Britain, Prussia, Russia Congresses held to attempt to resolve issues. Buffer states/territory traded. Russia

N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Napoleonic Wars Concert of Europe Crimean War Austro-Prussian War Franco-Prussian War WW IWW II Multipolar loose, shifting alliances, Britain as balancer four or five Great Powers Cold War—or “Long Peace” Bipolar (two Great Powers, tight blocs) ? (“peaceful”)

N E O R E A L I S M, S T R U C T U R A L T H E O R I E S Bipolarity vs Multipolarity Internal balancing is more reliable External balancing can give rise to miscalculations that lead to general war –Large influence of small allies –Deterrence fails because there is an incentive to defect from commitments –As numbers grow, strategic complexity grows geometrically Uncertainty is the leading cause of war

Structural Theories: WWI Allied Powers France Great Britain Russia Central Powers Austria-Hungary Germany Multipolar System Abandoning an ally invites one’s own destruction In a moment of crisis, the weaker or more adventurous party (Austria) is likely to determine its side’s policy Its partners (Germany) can afford neither to let the weaker member be defeated nor to advertise their disunity by failing to back a venture even while deploring its risks

Structural Theories: WWI Allied Powers France Great Britain Russia Central Powers Austria-Hungary Germany Balance of Power The Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance were approximately balanced The defeat of any great power would give the opposing coalition a decisive advantage in the overall European balance of power Britain entered the war to prevent Germany from upsetting the balance of power on the continent

Structural Theories: WWI Allied Powers France Great Britain Russia Central Powers Austria-Hungary Germany Alliance System The establishment of the Triple Entente and the Triple Alliance divided the European powers into two camps While seen as a form of self-protection, the alliances also had the potential to escalate small crises into major wars When Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, this brought Serbia’s ally Russia into the war, which brought Germany, France, and Britain into the war

Strengths of Structural Realism Parsimony Focus on systemic effects Power is defined as capabilities (non- tautological) Explanatory power is in the constraints, not in the preferences Collective action Probabilistic predictions