6 Billion Connected (a post Digital Divide narrative) Stuart Gannes Digital Vision Program Stanford University FDIS Conference July 1, 2008

“The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” -William Gibson, 1998 Hint: Look to the developing world for innovation.

Two scenarios

Top down “Telephone wires and radio unite to make neighbors of nations.” - AT&T Lobby NY, 1932

Bottom’s up, sort of –Half the world’s population has a cell phone –80% of world population within reach of cellular signal –Estimate: 5 Billion connected by 2015

Personal mobility: The killer app

Global connectivity Mobile subscription growth: 39% annually in Africa, and 28% in Asia between India and China alone added 154 million and 143 million new subscribers during this period.

Mobile devices: Talk is cheap… 294.3m handsets/quarter –3.3 million/day! –Mostly low cost ~$40 today –More than dozen vendors Prepaid phones dominate world-wide –No billing relationship to provider –Buy SIM card out of vending machine

Not talking is cheaper! From calling to “non-calling” –“If you are going to meet with someone they might say: “I’ll do a missed call when I get there.” SMS: At first just a way to save money when communicating –Now: “The biggest revolution in the language, ever.” Spain: More phones (50m) than people (44m)

(((o_o))) Not writing is easier

Mcommerce is faster

Money travels wider

Historical caveat - or precedent

New mobile apps From communicating (one to one by voice, and text) to –Broadcast SMS, Twitter From entertainment (consuming media, games) to –User generated content, social networks From information (news, sports weather alerts) to –Maps, recommendations: Wisdom of crowds Commerce: From purchasing (goods, services) to –Minutes as currency

Mobile devices ‘wannabe’ computers From communication platforms to communications-enhanced application platforms

But not personal computers! Platforms + mobile twist: –New silicon, OS –New add-ons –New form factor –New I/O –Apps different –Interaction with cloud different –Different display and keyboard –Battery constraints matter

Early metadata apps Berkeley ‘Traffic Modeling’ –Tracked 100 drivers with GPS-equipped phones. Traffic speeds computed based on locations, –System predicts the onset of traffic interruptions far more effectively than current traffic systems (which cost millions) by using an infrastructure based on people, their mobiles and movements. MIT “Reality Mining” –The collection of machine-sensed environmental data pertaining to human social behavior: work location, time and network usage, etc. correlates with productivity. –“With just a cell phone, you can go into organizations and find out how happy and how productive people are, which is really pretty amazing.” --Sandy Pentland MIT

Mobile computing platform will

…thrive on data, and Mobile devices record reality and upload info to networks –Reality recognizable by a human Audio, photo, video –Reality recognizable by a computer GPS Accelerometers, motion sensors Compass Temperature, barometric pressure (altitude), CO2

attract developers, and Mainframes - IBM PCs - Microsoft/Intel Mobile computing contenders –Microsoft/Windows Mobile –Google/Android –Nokia/Symbian –RIM –Apple Winner creates/”owns” virtuous cycle

address human needs Innovation despite constraints –Bottom’s up, entrepreneurial innovation New business models –Carriers? Advertisers? Media? New concerns –Security “Re-identification:” Relating a person to a trail of seemingly anonymous and homogenous data left across different locations –Computer virus –Mob behavior 6 Billion connections evenly distributed

Thanks