Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 1 Session 8 Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism John C. Pine, Louisiana State University William Waugh, Georgia State University

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 2 Terrorism Terrorism or the threat of terror involves acts of violence used in peace, conflict or war and are acts that shock the senses of reasonable people (Simonsen). Terrorism is violence or the threat of violence used and directed in pursuit of or in service of a political aim.

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 3 Definitions of Terrorism (Rosie 1987) Violence or threatened violence intended to produce fear or change (simple definition) Criminal violence violating legal codes and punishable by the state (legal) National or other groups used to attack other interests (state-sponsored) Power of the government used to repress its people to the point of submission (state)

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 4 Hoffman (1998) distinguishes terrorist acts from other types of criminal acts Terrorism has political aims and motives Terrorism is violent or acts that threaten violence Terrorism acts have far-reaching psychological repercussions beyond the immediate victim or target; The terrorist act is conducted by an organization with an identifiable chain of command or structure; Perpetrated by a sub-national group or non-state entity.

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 5 Terrorist incidents may include: Verbal or written threats of violence, Physical attacks with or without weapons, Attacks using chemical, biological agents, nuclear or radiological materials; Destruction of power stations, water systems, and other critical infrastructure systems.

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 6 Potential Domestic Targets to Terrorism Continuity of government services Transportation Utilities Banking & Finance Information & Communication Public Health Emergency Services Recreation Religious, academic or cultural institutions Commercial or industrial sites Special events such as celebrations

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 7 Risk Assessment Risk assessment involves the clarification of the nature of a risk, including its probability of occurrence and likely intensity, and measuring its potential impact on people, property and the environment.

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 8 Risk Risk is reflected in the equation stating that risk is the likelihood of an event occurring multiplied by the consequence of that event. Risk = Likelihood of Occurrence x Consequence

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 9 Terrorism Risk Assessment Terrorism is chronic and an ongoing threat; The goal of terrorism risk assessment initiatives is to improve preparedness against potential terrorist attacks; It may be used to establish local, regional and state priorities for terrorism planning; It helps to clarify vulnerability of local, regional or state targets; The impacts of a hazardous condition can come in the form of vulnerability or consequence assessment.

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 10 Vulnerability A description or measure of what is exposed and susceptible to hazard impacts rather than a prediction of what will happen. Vulnerability focuses on measurable physical, political, economic or social variables.

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 11 Terrorism Vulnerability Profile The approach uses the concept of the “most likely scenario” as a basis of analysis. The approach assumes that an attack would produce death, injuries, or infrastructure damage that would overwhelm the jurisdiction’s emergency response capabilities including any mutual aid agreements/assistance pacts.

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 12 Terrorism Events (Hoffman 1998) Rarely uncontrolled Premeditated and carefully planned Targets and methods based on the sponsoring group’s: –Aims –Resources –Personalities of key members –Internal dynamics of the group

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 13 Level of Visibility Invisible – Classified Location 0 Very Low Visibility – Not aware of its existence 1 Low Visibility – Probably not well known existence 2 Medium Visibility – Existence is probably known 3 High Visibility – Existence well known 4 Very High Visibility – Existence is obvious 5

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 14 Criticality of Target Site to Jurisdiction No Usefulness 0 Minor Usefulness 1 Moderate Usefulness 2 Significant Usefulness 3 Highly Useful 4 Critical 5

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 15 Value of Target to Terrorist None 0 Very Low 1 Low 2 Medium 3 High 4 Very High 5

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 16 Access to Target (0) Fenced, Guarded, Controlled Access by Pass Only, No Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet (1) Guarded, Controlled Access of Visitors and Non- Staff Personnel, No Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet (2) Protected, Controlled Access of Visitors and Non- Staff Personnel, No Unauthorized Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet (3) Controlled Access of Visitors, Unprotected Entry, No Unauthorized Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet (4) Open Access to all personnel, Unprotected Entry, No Unauthorized Vehicle Parking within 50 Feet (5) Open Access to all personnel, Unprotected Entry, Vehicle Parking within 50 feet

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 17 Site Population Capacity 0 (0) 1 – 250 (1) 251 – 500 (2) (3) 1001 – 5000 (4) > 5000 (5)

Session 8: Modeling the Vulnerability of Targets to Threats of Terrorism 18 Potential for Collateral Mass Casualties 0 to 100 (0) 101 to 500 (1) 501 to 1000 (2) 1001 to 2000 (3) 2001 to 5000 (4) > 5000 (5)