Modeling and Measuring the Process of Watershed Change, and Implications for Fisheries Karin E. Limburg SUNY College of Environmental Science & Forestry Supported by the Hudson River Foundation and National Science Foundation

Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change Jon Erickson, Caroline Hermans University of Vermont John Gowdy, Audra Nowosielski, John Polimeni Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Karin Limburg, Karen Stainbrook, Bongghi Hong SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry Collaborators: David Burns Dutchess County Environmental Management Council Eileen Sassman Wappinger Creek Watershed Intermunicipal Council

The two paradigms… The natural landscape (watershed) perspective vs the socio-economic perspective… Separate, but in need of linkage!

Economist Alfred Kahn “The Tyranny of Small Decisions” Bill Odum applied this to ecological systems

“Connecting the dots”: linking economy, land use, and ecological effects Watershed HealthLand-Use and Demographic Change Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy Business HouseH Economic Structure and Change Individuals

How does human activity create the demand for land use change? How does this demand change the spatial pattern of land use? How does land use change affect ecosystem health? Research Questions  What does all this mean for coastal fisheries?

The Hudson River Watershed – site of case study Hudson River estuary

Geographic Setting Dutchess County, NY 3 assessment approaches, followed by integrative model

GOVERMENT OUTSIDEWORLD CAPITAL ExportsImports INDUSTRY HOUSEHOLDS DepreciationInvestment ConsumptionGoods Labor Private Goods & Services PublicServices County-Wide Stakeholder Workshop: Semi-Conductor Industry Suburbanization Loss of agriculture Commuting ( ↑ traffic) a) Model the economy with a Social Accounting Matrix

#1 in Value-Added #2 in Employment Dutchess County Semiconductor and related devices industry

b) Land use and demographic change Quantifying Past & Present Condition - Satellite maps, followed by…

- Ortho-rectified photos - Land use interpretation - Tax parcel maps -Developed land use change model Quantifying past & present condition, continued

c) Ecosystem health (and watershed health)  maintenance of biotic integrity, resistance and/or resilience to change in the face of anthropogenic disturbance (Rapport, 1992) includes  physical and chemical environmental quality (e.g., stream temperature, conductivity, and element concentration),  biotic condition (e.g., status of fish and macroinvertebrate communities)

Assessing watershed health: The idea: organisms and ecosystems integrate and reflect the insults (or lack thereof) resulting from watershed-level processes Some techniques have proven robust after 25+ years of testing; others in development

Indicators of ecosystem health can (should?) evaluate changes at levels of Ecological population Community/habitat Whole-system Metrics may not all be additive, although many schemes designed that way

What we looked at: physical habitat characterizations water chemistry biotic community structure (fish and macro-invertebrates) ecosystem function

Some results: how “healthy” are the Wappinger and Fishkill Creek watersheds? (Fishkill is closer to NY City, more urbanized…) Let’s look at a few diagnostics… Land use patterns Environmental quality patterns Biological indicators …includes changes over time

Assessments at different spatial scales (relates to the degree of influence)

Amount of land in different uses varied at different spatial scales Percent ForestedAgriculturalDevelopedOther Fishkill Wappingers INTEGRATED

Impervious surface

Water quality – an example

Conductivity – a measure of the ionic strength of water Correlates strongly with human disturbance (population density, road density, nitrates, etc.) Getting recognition as a bellwether of aquatic disturbance Hudson Valley, New York F-82O-83J-85J-87S-88M-90D-91A-93A-95D-96J-98M-00N-01J-03F-05 Date Chloride Concentration (mg/L) Wappinger Creek

Biotic responses

Fish Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI) Use fish community characteristics to assess aquatic health – composed of 12 metrics, including Species richness & abundance Indicator species (of degradation, e.g.) Functional role ID Condition and health indices

IBIs originally worked out for Ohio streams – but are gaining popularity worldwide now However, have to be regionally calibrated We tested the relatively new northern Mid- Atlantic IBI (Daniels et al Trans. Amer. Fish. Soc. 131: )

Fishkill Wappinger IBIs over time… Similar results w/ macroinvertebrate analyses

Stable Isotope Analysis. A big field of research in everything from meteorology to archaeology, geology to food science, ecology to physiology Basically a way to trace how elements move from one compound to another, or from one chemical state to another In ecology, we often use Carbon and Nitrogen stable isotope ratios as tracers of matter in food webs – and can also be used to trace migrating animals – and things like pollution…

 Less urbanized More urbanized  Stable isotope analysis of a “sentinel species” blacknose dace

Evidence of any threshold effects?

less urbanmore urban

Social Accounting Matrix (Input-output Model) Binary Logit Regression Model Integrating through models Multiple Linear Regression Model Nowosielski (2002)Polimeni (2002)Stainbrook (2004)

Simulation Result from Socio-economic Sub-model: 2292 new jobs (1000 direct indirect) expected number of new jobs

124,549 “Tax Parcels” within Dutchess County Land Use Change Sub-model

Properties of Tax Parcels

Reclassified: Residential vs Vacant

Input Spatial Dataset (Independent Variables for Binary Logit Model) Neighborhood Index Distance to Central Business District Total Assessment Value Change in Income Change in Population Minimum Lot Size Requirement Protected LandsSteep AreaWetlandsHydric Soils Possible Restriction to Development

Predicted Conversion of Vacant Lands to Residential Use in Response to Economic Impact (%)

Expected Change in Land Use due to Economic Impact

NAWQA (National Water Quality Assessment) Dataset: Correlation with Percent Urban Land Use correlation coefficient

Result from Ecosystem Health Sub-model: Reduced Stream Water Quality and Species Diversity

We are able to track the effects of economic activity in the watershed…but what does this mean for coastal fisheries?

Chesapeake Bay Mississippi R. watershed and “The Dead Zone” It’s a matter of scale… Image sources: NOAA and Virginia Inst. of Marine Science

Fish & Fisheries declines Diaz, et al Hypoxia increasing

Eutrophication severity (chl) Pelagic:demersal ratio Caddy 2000, de Leiva Moreno 2000 System-wide effects? Eutrophication severity Fisheries landings Caddy 1993 hypoxia PRIMARY PRODUCTION, g C m -2 y -1 ANNUAL FISHERY LANDING, Kg Ha -1 Nixon 2002

*not including dams missing dates Dams Over Time* Data from BASINS software

Is a new paradigm needed? We (all of us!) need a new way of VALUING the environment. Not just the $$$...

Connecting the dots…de rode draad Evaluate ecosystem services… Evaluate the trade-offs…

Thank you!