1. School of Natural Resources, and Environmental Program
We Paved Paradise and Put up a Parking Lot Economic, Social, and Ecological Implications of Incremental Choice
Jon Erickson
School of Natural Resources,
and Environmental Program
University of Vermont

2. (marginal, and potentially episodic)
FEEDBACK LOOPS
(marginal, and potentially episodic)
The Tyranny of Small Decisions
Marginal
Economic Change
Marginal Land-Use
Change
Incremental
Watershed Health
Decline
Chlorides
School Quality
Traffic Congestion
Energy Dependence
Social Networks
Community Services
OUTSIDE WORLD

3. PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY
FEEDBACK LOOPS
Out from Under the Tyranny
Economic Structure
and Change
Land-Use Change
and Social Context
Biophysical
Watershed Health
Land Use
Society
Community
Economy $
Firms
Households
OUTSIDE WORLD
PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY

4. Dutchess County, New York
2,077 km2, mixed land use
970 km of named streams
> 132,000 employment pool
IBM = >11,000
SW to NE development
gradient
Effective buying income (EBI)
ranks 15th in the U.S.

5. Wappingers Watershed 1992 2001 % urban/suburban % forest
% agricultural
1992
2001
Historical land use change

6. Fishkill Watershed 1992 2001 % urban/suburban % forest % agricultural
Historical land use change

7. Group of Decision-Makers
Alt-1
DM-2
Alt-2
DM-1
DM-3
Alt-3

8. Individual Decision-Maker
Alt-1
CEc
CSc
Alt-2
CEv
Alt-3

9. GOAL Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 CEc CSc CEv CEc CSc CEv
w1 + w2 + w3 = 1
Alt-1
CEc
CSc
Alt-2
CEv
Alt-3

10. Alternatives CEc CSc Ecological Criteria
But, biotic responses very noisy!
Chemistry follows land use

11. Alternatives CEc Social Criteria CEv Land Use Census
by Block, Tract, Town, Zip . . .
Business Point
Tax Parcel

12. Alternatives Economic Criteria CSc CEv GOVERMENT INDUSTRY HOUSEHOLDS
Private Goods
& Services
Public
Services
Consumption
Goods
Labor
CAPITAL
OUTSIDE
WORLD
Exports
Imports
Depreciation
Investment

13. Alt 1
Alt 2
Alt 3

14. Scenario Analysis Efficient ALLOCATION Equitable DISTRIBUTION
Economic Structure
and Change
Efficient
ALLOCATION
Land-Use Change
and Social Context
Biophysical
Land Use
Society
Community
Economy
Firms
Households
Individuals
Equitable
DISTRIBUTION
Watershed Health
Sustainable
SCALE

15. GOAL
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
CEc
CSc
CEv
CEc
CSc
CEv
CEc
CSc
CEv