A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

The End of History? Francis Fukuyama 1992 Economics = Mixed Capitalism Culture = Liberal Social Attitudes Political System = Liberal Democracy Weaknesses to system: military (no), economic (no), revolutionary (no), cultural – (no??), ecological - ??, demographic - ??

The Rise of Demography Where does demography fit in to social theory (vs. economy, culture, politics)? Technology-Mortality mechanism in the past (i.e. better weapons, more resources, lower mortality, higher growth) Values-Fertility mechanism in modernity? (i.e. certain values linked to higher fertility)

The Rise of Demograohy Demographic Transition Uneven Ethnic differentials have had political ramifications, but are declining Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious makeover? Are religious populations more resistant to transition than secular?

Demography and Politics? Early Christianity, spread from some 40 converts in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300 A.D. Mormon church: 40 percent growth in past century, widening fertility gap Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20 th c. US: ¾ demographic. 'Red states' have 12-point TFR advantage over 'Blue' in 2004 election Ethnic conflicts: Quebec, N. Ireland, Fiji, etc Implications of the liberal-democratic-capitalist 'End of History' model

Q1: Secularisation "As this book will demonstrate: 1. The publics of virtually all advanced industrial societies have been moving toward more secular orientations during the past fifty years. Nevertheless, 2. The world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious views than ever before-- and they constitute a growing proportion of the world's population." (Inglehart & Norris 2004) Which will dominate: religious fertility or secularisation?

USA Attendance European Islamic Attendance

European Attendance

Fertility. "Conservative, religiously minded Americans are putting far more of their genes into the future than their liberal, secular counterparts…[heavily Mormon] Utah annually produces 90 children for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age. By comparison, Vermont -- the only state to send a socialist to Congress and the first to embrace gay unions -- produces only 49…Fertility correlates strongly with religious conviction" – Philip Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004)

Conclusion: Fertility After marital status, church attendance and religiosity among the strongest predictors of individual fertility in Europe Seems to be increasing its predictive power in secularising (Catholic) countries In secular (Protestant) countries, church attendance insignificant, but religiosity significantly predicts fertility Future Research: USA, European Muslims, Islamic world

European Attendance

Conclusion: Secularisation Variation in Patterns of Secularisation Europe has secularised in terms of church attendance, but not in terms of religious feeling In Europe, more religious (Catholic) countries are secularising faster, less religious (mainly Protestant) countries have flatlined at very low (5-10%) levels of church attendance USA and much of the developing world has not secularised European Muslims show less tendency toward apostasy than Christians

The End of History? 'End of History' far from certain – indeed, the reverse seems more likely: –Europe: ethnic conflict between secular or moderately religious 'natives' and growing religious (mainly Islamic) immigrant communities –USA: religious conflict which crosses ethnic lines, between secular/moderate religious population and religious fundamentalists