Page 1 HyWays We have to act NOW for a sustainable future! Conclusions and recommendations from the HyWays project The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
Page 2 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Main message Hydrogen has the potential to reduce total CO 2 emissions from road transport in a cost effective way by over 50% in 2050… …if we start to act now!
Page 3 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Why do we need hydrogen? Emission reduction
Page 4 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Annual CO 2 emissions from European road transport Mtons/a Emission reduction potential Base line (-30% CO 2 ) Modest policy support, modest learning High policy support, high learning Very high support, high learning Hydrogen scenarios: OO ver 50% reduction of emissions from road transport by 2050.
Page 5 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Cost effective emission reduction Marginal abatement costs (MAC) for CO 2 emission reduction (Europe) MAC ( € /ton CO 2 ) Baseline Modest support, modest learning High support, high learning Very high support, high learning Hydrogen scenarios: CC osts of CO 2 emission reduction decrease by 4% in 2030 and 15% by 2050.
Page 6 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Pollutant emissions % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% FR DE GR IT NL NO FI ES PL UK Countries NO x emissions* compared to baseline * High support, high learning scenario Short-to-medium term improvement of air quality. 70% reduction by Even higher reductions possible at local level (cities)
Page 7 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Why do we need hydrogen? Emission reduction Economy and employment
Page 8 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Impact on economic growth Strengthening Europe’s position as manufacturer of cars and energy equipment. Decreasing vulnerability to oil price shocks and structural high oil prices. Small positive GDP effects in most countries from 2030 onwards. The transition to hydrogen offers economic opportunities:
Page 9 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Impact on employment 25% of all vehicles are produced in Europe. (10% of total GDP in EU27) Dilemma for large automotive countries: DDrastic GDP and job losses if these countries lose market shares due to a late market entry. UUncertainties about success of H 2 cars and risk of losses due to investments in premature H 2 infrastructure and car development. Less drastic for other countries; by following the "right strategies“, additional wins in GDP and employment can be obtained. Employment (negative values) 3 3 Worst case scenario
Page 10 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Why do we need hydrogen? Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply
Page 11 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Security of supply Hydrogen de-couples energy demand from resources (like electricity). Diversified hydrogen production mix leads to substantial improvement in security of supply. TT otal oil consumption of road transport decreases by 40% until 2050 (80% hydrogen vehicles) PJ / a Solar HT Biomass Wind Grid Nuclear Natural gas Coal By-product Hydrogen production mix (Scenario: Visions of the national stakeholders)
Page 12 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Why do we need hydrogen? Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving
Page 13 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Hydrogen & renewable energy Solar HT Biomass Wind Nuclear Coal + natural gas By-product PJ / a Hydrogen production mix (Scenario: 80% emission reduction, failure of CCS technology) Opportunity to increase the share of renewable energy (beyond biomass) in transport. Link between fuel and power by electrolysis augments take-up of renewables into the grid.
Page 14 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Hydrogen & energy efficiency End use efficiency is increased by hydrogen and fuel cell technology. E.g., hydrogen from biomass (used in fuel cell vehicles) allows for substantial efficiency gains over biofuels. Efficiency of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles is significantly higher than of internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid ICE vehicles.
Page 15 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Why do we need hydrogen? Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving But what do we need now? Immediate action!
Page 16 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap We have to act now for a sustainable future! Scenario “Modest policy support, modest learning”, WETO oil price Scenario “High policy support, fast learning”, € /vehicle acceptable, WETO oil price +20$/bbl CUMULATIVE Cash flow (M€) SAVINGS ADD. COSTS : Total Cash Flow Fuel+Fleet cash flow "Business as usual costs MINUS H2 scenario costs" Cash flow over time High introduction rates of vehicles and build-up rate of infrastructure are needed for an industrially relevant growth. A slow market penetration of hydrogen is unacceptable from an investor’s point of view. Immediate action is needed to overcome the initial barriers.
Page 17 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Why do we need hydrogen? Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving But what do we need now? Immediate action! A hydrogen-specific support scheme
Page 18 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap A European hydrogen-specific support framework is needed. Innovation support: Increase R&D budgets at EU and member state level for hydrogen technologies. SSuggested European level: 80 M € /year. Market support: Implement a hydrogen specific deployment support framework at member state level. SStarting point: equalise costs ( € ct/km) for road transport (e.g. through tax incentives). TTotal costs of deployment support scheme: ~180 M € /year. Early markets: Create markets utilising the advantages of hydrogen applications. EE.g. city centre access regulations or procurement of zero emission vehicles within governmental services.
Page 19 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Why do we need hydrogen? Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving But what do we need now? Immediate action! A hydrogen-specific support scheme A public private partnership
Page 20 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap A public-private partnership (PPP) is needed. Production of a small series of vehicles has started but has to be scaled up further soon. In the early commercialisation phase, technology-specific deployment support and R&D must go hand-in-hand. AA European public private partnership between industry and the EC, such as a Joint Technology Initiative (JTI), is the most suitable framework to meet these conditions.
Page 21 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Why do we need hydrogen? Emission reduction Economy and employment Security of supply Renewable energy and energy saving But what do we need now? Immediate action! A hydrogen-specific support scheme A public private partnership
Page 22 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Acknowledgement HyWays is an integrated project, co-funded by research institutes, industry, national agencies and by the European Commission (EC) under the 6th Framework Programme [contract No ].
Page 23 HyWays Want to know more? An executive summary and the full version of the HyWays Road Map and Action Plan are available for download at The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap
Page 24 HyWays The European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Overall net employment effects Relative to today's employment Modest policy support, modest learning High policy support, high learning Very high support, high learning Small gains if Europe maintains the same import/export shares for H 2 technology as for other technology If not, consequences are significant