Voting Behavior in US Presidential Elections A Graphical Story Sören Holmberg Department of Political Science University of Gothenburg December 2008.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Political Parties Who is a Republican? Who is a Democrat?
Advertisements

Warm Up What does big government mean? What is a Splinter Party?
Political Beliefs and Behaviors American political ideology.
Sociological Factors that affect Voter Turnout in Elections
Latinos and the 2012 Elections Boisi Center for Religion & American Public Life Boston College November 1, 2012 Luis Lugo, Director Pew.
Review What is a random sample? What is saliency?
TRENDS IN PARTY SUPPORT POLI 423 N. R. Miller. American National Election Studies ANES studies have been held in conjunction with every Presidential election.
Making Sense of the Jewish VoteMaking Sense of the Jewish Vote March 2012.
5 Public Opinion. Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved What is Public Opinion? Sources of political attitudes: Family, religion,
How People Voted The Election of Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives Understand the decision making process for why people vote as they do.
26K Things that influence Voters: Nonvoters: Cannot voters (otherwise voting)  Suddenly had to travel on voting days  Are resident aliens (barred from.
The American Political Landscape: Demographics and political predispositions 1.Sectionalism 2.Race/Ethnicity 3.Gender 4.Income 5.Education.
Unit 5 - Public Opinion & Ideology Targets 5.5 – 5.8.
Public Opinion Chapter 7 Public Opinion & Political Socialization Theme A.
Chapter 7 Public Opinion. What is Public Opinion?  How people think or feel about particular things. students in 1940 found that, while a small group.
Voters and Voter Behavior
The U.S. Presidential Election of 2012.
Party and the Tea Party Among Aiken County Voters Bob Botsch Political Science USC Aiken.
Partisanship and Group Voting II POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith.
Political Socialization Factors FamilyEvents School and PeersIdeology Mass Media Religion Race/Ethnicity Gender Age Region.
Group differences in opinions. Important differences Race/Ethnicity Religion – Denomination – Religiosity Education Economic status Region Generation:
Aim: How does Public Opinion influence American Government?
AP GOVERNMENT PUBLIC OPINION Chapter 5 PUBLIC OPINION The aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs by some portion of the adult population No ONE.
Political Beliefs and Behaviors American political ideology.
Voters and Voter Behavior.  Two Long Term Trends Federal laws and constitutional amendments have eliminated restrictions on the right to vote, thus dramatically.
Making Sense of the Jewish VoteMaking Sense of the Jewish Vote.
Chapter 6 Voters & Voter Behavior. Suffrage, or Franchise, means the right to vote. The qualifications to vote are left up to each state, but there are.
POLITICAL PARTIES. An organized effort by office holders, candidates, activists, and voters who pursue their common interests by gaining and exercising.
Political Beliefs and Behaviors American political ideology.
Political Beliefs and Behaviors American political ideology.
200 pt 300 pt 400 pt 500 pt 100 pt 200 pt 300 pt 400 pt 500 pt 100 pt 200pt 300 pt 400 pt 500 pt 100 pt 200 pt 300 pt 400 pt 500 pt 100 pt 200 pt 300 pt.
THE MEANING OF A VOTE TYPES OF ELECTIONS. REFERENDUM, RECALL AND INITIATIVE REFERENDUM: A STATE LEVEL METHOD OF DIRECT LEGISLATION THAT GIVES VOTERS A.
American National Election Studies ANES studies have been held in conjunction with every Presidential election since 1952 (and most off-year) Congressional.
CH 6 SEC 4 VOTER BEHAVIOR. While low voter turnout is a serious problem, many factors influence the American who do vote.
PUBLIC OPINION. WHAT IS IT? PURE LIBERAL- Economic liberal/social liberal –Econ- redistribute wealth, regulate business –Social- rights of the individual.
THE POLITICS OF VOTING CHEVALIER Winter THE RIGHT TO VOTE SUFFRAGE OR FRANCHISE IS A SYNONYM FOR VOTING AND VOTING RIGHTS The electorate in the.
Aim: How does Public Opinion influence American Government? DEMOCRACY AND PUBLIC OPINION Why is government policy often at odds with public opinion? Framer.
G OVERNMENT Mr. Rosenstock San Fernando High School 1.
Public Opinion Public Opinion & Political Socialization.
AP Govt – 10/10/14 Objective: SWBAT to understand the reasons voters vote and who they may vote for. Objective: SWBAT to understand the reasons voters.
Voters and Voter Behavior Chapter 6: The Right to Vote, Voter Qualifications, Suffrage and Civil Rights, and Voter Behavior.
Political Socialization. Political socialization – The process through which an individual acquires his or her particular political orientations, including.
Democracy and Public Opinion  Core beliefs are shared  Political attitudes differ  What is public opinion?  Public opinion is critical to democracy.
Unit II Political Beliefs and Behaviors Us vs. Them.
PUBLIC OPINION Chapter 6. The Power of Public Opinion  The Power of Presidential Approval  What Is Public Opinion?  Expressed through voting  The.
Political Beliefs and Behaviors American political ideology American Government.
How The Mountain West States Voted in 2016:
Political Socialization: Forming Political Beliefs and Opinions
Elections and Voting Chapter 13.
Chapter 7 POLITICAL PARTIES: Winning the Right to Govern
The Fourth Political Party System:
Political Beliefs and Behaviors
Public Opinion and Political Participation
Party Balance GOVT 2305, Module 9.
Political Beliefs and Behaviors
American Government Chapter 6 Notes.
Since the early 1970s, voter participation in the United States has been regularly under 60 percent for presidential elections. What does the cartoon.
“Same Sex Marriage and the 2004 Presidential Election”
Chapter 6- Political Beliefs and Behaviors
Public Opinion.
AGENDA: Tues 10/25 & Wed 10/26 Voter Behavior
Activists, Funders, Voters
Chapter 7 Public Opinion
Aim: How are voter’s behaviors influenced?
Voting Trends.
Government Mr. Rosenstock San Fernando High School
Voters and Voting Behavior
The Fourth Political Party System:
Public Opinion Abbreviated Lecture.
Presentation transcript:

Voting Behavior in US Presidential Elections A Graphical Story Sören Holmberg Department of Political Science University of Gothenburg December 2008

US Presidential Election 2008 Preliminary Outcome Source: Wikipedia Barack Obama (Democrat)52,8% John McCain (Republican)45,8% Ralph Nader (Independent)0,5% Bob Barr (Libertarian)0,4% Others0,5% 100% Estimated Turn-Out: 130 million voters; eligible voters 213 million; turn-out per cent 61.0%

Turn-Out in US Presidential Elections Source: Stanley and Niemi: Vital Statistics in American Politics. The turn-out figures represent the percentage of the eligible electorate that cast votes in presidential elections. The preliminary result for 2008 is based on a estimate of 130 million casted votes among 213 million eligible voters. %

Regional Voting per cent Democrats North East South Difference North-South Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 %

Gender per cent Democrats Women Men Difference Women-Men ± Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 %

Age per cent Democrats Under Difference Young-Old Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 % Under

Ethnic Group per cent Democrats Blacks Hispanic Difference Black-White Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 % White Jews Asians

Religion per cent Democrats Catholics Protestants Jews Weekly Church Goers Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 % White Protestants White Born Again Christians

Marital Status per cent Democrats Unmarried Married Difference Unmarried-Married Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 %

Gays/Lesbians per cent Democrats Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 %

Income per cent Democrats Under $ Difference Low-High Income Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 % $ and over $ $29 000

Education per cent Democrats Post Graduate High School Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 % Some College

US Party Identification Democrat Republican Independent Source: ANES; % NEP 2004 Dem 37 Rep 37 Ind 26 Edison 2008 Dem 39 Rep 32 Ind 29

US Ideological Self-Identification Liberal Conservative Moderate Moderate Source: DKs 1 – 6%; General Social Survey, NORC; % NEP 2004 Cons 34 Mod 45 Lib 21 Edison 2008 Cons 34 Mod 44 Lib 22 Liberal Conservative

US: Independents Democratic Leaners Republican Leaners Independents plus Leaners Source: ANES % Pure Independents plus Leaners

Ideology per cent Democrats Liberals Conservatives Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 % Moderates Difference Lib – Cons

Party Preference per cent Democrats Democrat Republican Source: VNS Exit Polls; NEP 2004; Edison 2008 % Independent Difference Dem – Rep