1 Population growth rates and trends Topic 1 - Population Growth

2 Western Bay of Plenty Sub-region Includes: Western Bay of Plenty District Council Tauranga City Council Coastal Marine Area

3 Population growth rate Rapid population growth since the 1950s Cameron Road showing the Bellevue Temperance Hotel, west end of Wharf Street about 1910.

4 Population growth rate Challenge - sustainable urban and rural development Every week: 135 people arrive 66 people leave 30 new houses built 60 more vehicles 51 new jobs

5 Future Growth Estimates 2001 population 130,000 – 14% up on 1996 census 198,000 by ,000 by 2051

6 Population – NZ context % of national population Fourth or fifth most populated region in New Zealand Source: Ministry for the Environment dec07/html/chapter2-environment/page3.html

7 Demographics Ageing changing households Traditional families likely to double Single, two-person households likely to treble by 2051 Population ageing Photo © Smart Growth

8 Aging population Popular place to retire Aging population Demographic changes Workforce capacity - baby boomers retire 5,000 people over 80 By 2051, more than 35,000 Question / Pātai Implications of aging population?

9 Young families, small households Families with young children Changing household structures Traditional families double by 2051 Single, two-person households treble by 2051 Question / Pātai Implications of more families with young children?

10 Non-permanent residents Other people: Short-term visitors/tourists Second homeowners Itinerant, seasonal workers Population forecasts may understate the position

11 Other factors Changes in attractiveness: –Improved tertiary facilities –Improved employment opportunities –Worsening environment from growth (traffic congestion, reduced “small town” appeal) Question / Pātai Larger population - positive or negative?

12 Implications of population growth More houses, new types More business land Better roads, more efficient public transport New, different health care Safer walking, cycling Access to high-quality water More community, cultural and educational facilities Wastewater, stormwater services Photos © Tauranga City Council

13 Implications of population growth Preserve: Environment Cultural heritage Open space Photo © Indigo Pacific

14 SmartGrowth - restrain or manage growth? SmartGrowth strategy based on: –restraining scale or rate of growth not practical at sub-regional level –forecast growth will be accommodated –development needs to constrained to protect important natural, physical or cultural features

15 Restrained growth Activity / Mahi 1. List reasons for restraining growth at sub- regional level 2. Develop an idea for retraining growth 3. Describe practical implications and limitations 4. List of reasons in favour of unrestrained growth at a sub-regional level

16 True / False Quiz Western BOP does not include a marine area Population increased 4% from 1996 census Population forecasts only for permanent residents Population growth implications - better roads, more efficient public transport? SmartGrowth aims to constrain development in some areas of the sub region