David Lindenmayer Long-term Forest Science, Fires, Human disturbance & a vision for management

This talk ANU Background The wet forests of Victoria The current state of these forests Restoring these forests A new vision for forest management

 Specialise in large-scale, l0ng-term ecological research and monitoring thru ANU  37 other staff, students etc – funded thru grants, book royalties etc  37 books, 920 scientific articles, 53 “live” (current) projects

The wet forests of Central Victoria ( ha)

The Central Highlands of Victoria

 Most of Melbourne’s water (4.5m people – largest city by 2020)

 Up to 1700 tonnes of carbon biomass per ha  (Keith et al., 2009; PNAS; Keith et al., 2014; Ecosphere) WORLD’S MOST CARBON DENSE FORESTS

Leadbeater’s Possum Endangered species Faunal emblem of Victoria Only occurs in these forests

 Natural disturbance regime – rare, high-severity, stand- replacing (or partial replacing fire)

2009 “Black Saturday” wildfires  173 lives lost  > properties damaged  ha of ha of ash forest burned  Worst fires in Australia wrt human fatalities and infrastructure impact……..

Human use = Logging provides (372 direct) jobs

Greater than 31 years of science: (since 1983…….) Greater than 31 years of science: (since 1983…….) 7 books (+5/8) 187 peer-reviewed scientific papers (+7) >1, 800,000 scientific measurements since

The current state of the forest IUCN Red Listed Ecosystem – Critically Endangered (Burns et al [Austral Ecology]

The forest has been massively altered in the last years 1.16% Mountain Ash (1887 ha of ha) 0.37% Alpine Ash Remaining Old Growth forest (was 30-60% historically) 72,000 ha Mountain Ash burned in 2009

Spatial cover by history and disturbance

Marys ville Heales ville

ANU monitoring plots

2009 fire

2009 fire and ANU plots

TRP plus Logging history (total)

2009 fire

2009 plus 1983 fire

How has this happened?

Modern (extensive & intensive) clearfelling

BIODIVERSITY

The current reserve system is inadequate (Todd et al. 2014) Leadbeater’s Possum is on an extinction trajectory

Overall decline Old growth cover has declined by 95-97% of “background” cover levels (1/30 th -1/60 th ) Large old trees = 90% decline in total abundance by 2035

Mis-match between tree loss and animal needs

FIRE (New work by Taylor et al [2014] (in Conservation Letters)

Logging elevates fire severity (Taylor et al. 2014)

Repeated fire – fire burns young forest and keeps it young with subsequent re-burning (A fire in a young forest is different to a fire in an old forest)

Cumulative logging + fire effects across landscapes

LANDSCAPE TRAP (Forest is trapped as a young forest because of recurrent widespread fire – and never matures)

CARBON

The world’s most carbon dense forests

decomposition Total biomass carbon in forest ecosystem 100% Merchantable biomass removed off-site 40% Waste or slash remaining 60% CWD remaining on-site 30% ~50 yrs slash burning Sawlogs 11% Pulp 29% waste Sawn timber 4% 30-90yrs Paper products 20% 1-3yrs Landfill decomposition combustion CO 2 Proportions of carbon from Mountain Ash forest going to pulp and sawlog products and remaining on coupe (Keith et al., 2013) Fate of carbon in harvested forest

Logging and carbon stocks Reduction from ~800 to 300 tonnes/ha [Keith et al., 2014 – Ecosphere] 100,000 ha of Mountain Ash for carbon 24,500,000 tonne saving in carbon emissions – 1/3 rd of Yallourn Power Station annually Equivalent of 750,000 – 1,000,000 ha of replanted woodland

Forest restoration and management strategies

Essential to “re-build” and restore the Mountain Ash forest estate For biodiversity For fire management For carbon storage For water supply For economic benefits via tourism

Prevent Extinction of endangered species

To regrow old trees and old growth

To limit future fire risk

Plantations = alternative feedstock More than 2X sufficient plantations to provide feedstock for paper production Plantation is actually preferred feedstock Has positive carbon abatement potential

WATER

Water values of old ash forest Old growth yields more water Water value >> pulp (via desal pricing) Water for 4.5M people

TOURISM

Major benefits for local and regional economies

How many people? 4+ million residents in Melbourne 14 million domestic visitors per year in million international visitors in 2009

Tahune Airwalk, Geeveston Tarkine Forest Adventures Hollybank, Underwood Eagles Eyrie, Maydena National Park eco tourism in Tasmania

Milford Track, New Zealand

Think about the infrastructure Walking tracks (serious and semi-serious) Ziplines Aerial walkways Facilities for grey nomads, backpackers, high- end tourism

Thank you