1 United Nations Commodity Stabilization Policy Design Workshop Using a computer-simulation-based Interactive Learning Environment (ILE) by Paul Newton

2 Purpose of Workshop To illustrate an approach for the design of commodity stabilization policy

3 Objectives of the Workshop 4 To illustrate that commodity dynamics can be more a function of the interrelation of supply and demand forces, than a function of the exogenous, random influences on commodity systems. 4 To understand the difference between a commodity’s fluctuations and its instability. 4 To appreciate the potential of system dynamics modeling as a way of helping us to better understand commodity dynamics.

4 Audience for the Workshop Representatives to the United Nations from countries whose economies significantly rely on either production or consumption of primary commodities

5 Workshop Process 4 We’ll be together for 3-5 days, depending on learning pace of participants. 4 Pre-reading - portions of Meadows’ book 4 During the week, a mix of: –reading, both online and in Meadows’ book –class and small group discussions –policy tests using computer simulations –small group presentations to the class.

6 Meadows’ book 4 Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles (1970) Wright Allen Press, Cambridge, MA 4 This course is focused on teaching the lessons of primarily Chapter 6 from Meadows’ book, but in a more interactive and expansive way than is possible just from a reading of the book. 4 However, it is still important to review the book. You will find it useful during the week, as we hope you already have in the pre-reading for the course.

7 General Workshop Agenda 4 Discussion of pre-reading in general 4 Discussion of difference between commodity fluctuations and stability 4 Group discussion of Figure 4-2 as instructor develops it on the overhead 4 Instructor simulation & group discussion of model to produce Fig Instructor simulation & group discussion of Exercise 1 to produce Fig 6-4 & 6-2

8 General Workshop Agenda cont’d 4 Work using single computer simulations –Students perform Exercise 2 –Group discussion of Exercise 2 –Repeat previous 2 steps for Exercises Work using multi-computer simulations –Groups of students perform Exercise 9 –Group presentations and class discussions of each group’s commodity stabilization policies

9 10 Exercises from Meadows’ Book 4 Reference - Fig Fig Fig Fig Fig Fig Fig Fig Fig Capstone Exercise, A multi-user, multi- policy exercise. 4 Note: the 1st 9 exercises are single- user, single policy exercises

10 Primary Workshop Tools 4 An online document with instructions and hyperlinks to the simulation exercises 4 An online computer simulation software (Powersim), pre-configured to make operation easy. 4 Facilitators will demonstrate the use of these tools in doing the first two exercises on the computer display projector

11 Presentations to Class 4 Hypothesized behavior 4 Test behavior (from simulation experiment) 4 If test behavior differed from hypothesized behavior, ask yourself why & then present & discuss with group and class. 4 What do your experiments mean in real life 4 How could the the structure of the model be changed to produce more realistic behavior

12 LEARN A LOT & HAVE FUN!