The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2-Transmission The Progress on AIMS-II Jakarta, Indonesia 25 February 2009

The Latest Results Questionable Inputs Major Barrier Ways to Go

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 3 Demand & Gen Supply in 2025 (Individual) Demand4,212.0MW Domestic7,015.9MW Import-MW Demand59,754.0MW Domestic50,676.0MW Import18,489.6MW Existing EE300.0MW Demand26,827.0MW Domestic29,481.0MW Import2,000.0MW Existing EE700.0MW Demand12,225.0MW Domestic15,715.5MW Import-MW Existing EE400.0MW Demand13,329.0MW Domestic17,615.9MW Import-MW Demand1,063.0MW Domestic1,401.6MW Import-MW Demand1,517.0MW Domestic8,267.0MW Import-MW Demand2,332.0MW Domestic2,737.0MW Import-MW Demand1,077.0MW Domestic1,780.0MW Import-MW Demand4,301.0MW Domestic4,980.0MW Import-MW Demand1,200.0MW Domestic2,276.6MW Import260.0MW Demand21,245.0MW Domestic29,738.3MW Import-MW Co-in Demand138,071.0MW Total Gen Cap192,434.4MW

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 4 Interconnection Master Plan Thailand-Lao PDR HVAC PP (Existing)340.0MW HVAC PP ( ) 5,473.6MW HVAC EE (2014)600MW Thailand-P.Malaysia HVDC EE (Existing)300.0MW HVDC EE (2017)+300.0MW Thailand-Cambodia HVAC EE (2014)300.0MW P.Malaysia-Sarawak HVDC PP (2014)1,000.0MW HVDC PP (2015)1,000.0MW Sabah-Philippines HVDC EE (2015)500.0MW Sarawak-W.Kalimantan HVAC EE (2016)100.0MW P.Malaysia-Sumatra HVDC EE (2017)600.0MW P.Malaysia-Singapore HVAC EE (Existing)400.0MW Additional PP – To be determined Thailand-Neighbor PP ( ) 12,890.0MW Lao PDR-Neighbor PP ( ) 260.0MW Vietnam-Lao PDR* HVAC PP ( ) 1,887.0MW *Results from AIMS-I Singapore-Sumatra PP – To be determined Singapore-Batam PP – To be determined

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 5 Domestic7,015.9MW Import-MW EE-MW Domestic49,476.0MW Import18,489.6MW EE1,500.0MW Domestic28,011.0MW Import2,000.0MW EE1,600.0MW New Capacity15,715.5MW EE400.0MW Domestic17,015.9MW Import-MW EE600.0MW Domestic1,311.6MW Import-MW EE100.0MW Domestic8,267.0MW Import-MW EE100.0MW Domestic2,352.0MW Import-MW EE500.0MW Domestic1,780.0MW Import-MW EE-MW Domestic4,680.0MW Import-MW EE300.0MW Domestic2,276.6MW Import260.0MW EE600.0MW Domestic29,138.3MW Import-MW EE500.0MW Total Gen Cap187,789.4MW Reduced Cap4,645.0MW Demand & Gen Supply in 2025 (Interconnected)

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 6 Fuel Mix in 2025 (Interconnected) ASEANSystem System A (Upper West) System C (East) System B (Lower West)

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 7 Savings (MUSD) Capacity Cost57,79956, Energy Cost169,677169, Total227,476226,2441,232 Total Expenses IndividualInterconnected Savings Note: Present Value at the year 2007

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 8 Conclusions a)The Study confirms that APG is economically and technically feasible via 14 interconnection projects as followings: which can save 1,232 MUSD on the total expenses of ESI 1)Thailand-Lao PDRHVAC(PP)5, )Thailand-Lao PDR HVAC(EE) )Thailand-CambodiaHVAC(EE) )P.Malaysia-SarawakHVDC(PP)1,000/1, /2015 5)Sabah-PhilippinesHVDC(EE) )Sarawak-W.KalimantanHVAC(EE) )P.Malaysia-Thailand (Additional)HVDC(EE) )P.Malaysia-SumatraHVDC(EE) ) Thailand-Neighboring CountriesPP12, )Lao PDR-Neighboring CountriesPP )Singapore-P.MalaysiaPPTo be determined To be determined 12)Singapore-SumatraPPTo be determined To be determined 13)Singapore-BatamPPTo be determined To be determined 14) Vietnam-Lao PDR* HVAC(PP)1, Note: * Results from AIMS-I b)Although the Study results can be used as indicative plans, respective mutual systems of each interconnection project must conduct further studies before the implementation. InterconnectionType ofCapacityYear ProjectInterconnection(MW)

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 9 However, … 1)It has been 3 years of uncertain situations due to oil crisis and economic crisis 2)WG members were lack of meetings & communication, and thus incomplete & outdated data were never formally confirmed 3)There are noticeable points in the results, e.g.

The Latest Results Questionable Inputs Major Barrier Ways to Go

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 11 Questionable Inputs NoteA: Assumed data, which has never been formally confirmed X: Incomplete and unable to be assumed ?: Inconsistent data

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 12 Candidates’ Construction Cost USD/kW

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 13 Fuel Type Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Thailand Vietnam System A P.Malaysia Singapore Sumatra System B Brunei Philippines Sabah Sarawak W.Kalimantan System C GasDieselOilCoalNuclearGeothermal

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 14 Gas Price USD/MMBTU Year

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 15 Diesel Price USD/MMBTU Year

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 16 Oil Price USD/MMBTU Year

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 17 Coal Price USD/MMBTU Year

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 18 Uranium Price USD/MMBTU Year

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 19 Geothermal Price USD/MMBTU Year

The Latest Results Questionable Inputs Major Barrier Ways to Go

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 21 Present Status The latest result was submitted to - The 3 rd Meeting of APGCC (3 December 2008) and - The 9 th Meeting of HAPUA WC (1-2 December 2008) - All member countries via (16 January 2009) No response, except for - TNB (Peninsular Malaysia): comment on their input data - EMA (Singapore): comment on their input data - EVN (Vietnam): submit their input data, but not usable Unable to Proceed on the Optimization

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 22 Demand4,212.0MW Domestic7,015.9MW Import-MW Demand59,754.0MW Domestic50,676.0MW Import18,489.6MW Existing EE300.0MW Demand26,827.0MW Domestic30,209.0MW Import2,000.0MW (Existing EE700.0MW) Demand12,225.0MW Domestic16,083.0MW Import-MW (Existing EE400.0MW) Demand13,329.0MW Domestic17,615.9MW Import-MW Demand1,063.0MW Domestic1,401.6MW Import-MW Demand1,517.0MW Domestic8,267.0MW Import-MW Demand2,332.0MW Domestic2,737.0MW Import-MW Demand1,077.0MW Domestic1,780.0MW Import-MW Demand4,301.0MW Domestic4,980.0MW Import-MW Demand1,200.0MW Domestic2,276.6MW Import260.0MW Demand21,245.0MW Domestic29,738.3MW Import-MW Demand & Gen Supply in 2025 (Revise PM, Sg) (Individual) Co-in Demand138,071.0MW Total Gen Cap193,529.9MW

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 23 Major Barrier Sincere collaboration on data submission and review.

The Latest Results Questionable Inputs Major Barrier Ways to Go

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 25 Future Work Generation Expansion Study PI SWG Transmission Expansion Study

Presented in The Internal Meeting of HAPUA Working Group No.2 – Transmission, Jakarta, 25 February 2009 Prepared by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand 26 Options but not endorse it 1)Acknowledge the result as it is, but not endorse it Vietnam’s input only 2)Update Vietnam’s input only all members’ input 3)Update all members’ input

Thank You for Your Attention