1. Overview of Thailand’s power demand and supply With reference to proposed mainstream dams in the Lower Mekong Basin The Development Context Discussion Session 1 Presented on behalf of the MRCS by Lawrence Haas, MRCS – Consultant (Initiative on Sustainable Hydropower)

2. Purpose of the Presentation: Facilitate discussion on 1.Demand-supply – latest update on information? 2.Future sources of power supply in Thailand – what policies? 3.Challenges in meeting demand – what are they? 4.Contribution of hydropower trade in meeting Thailand’s power demand - existing agreements and prospects 5.Hydropower development on the Mekong tributaries and mainstream What other aspects should the SEA address - in relation to proposed mainstream dams and Thailand’s power sector development Follow-up discussion with TNMC / Line Agencies – on data, issues More specifically

3. What information sources will the SEA use?  GMS Roadmap for Implementing Greater Mekong Sub-Region Cross-Boarder Power Trade  TNMC Hydropower Sector Review, 2009  Completed and ongoing ADB Studies and RETAs – Sustainable Energy Futures for the GMS; Update of the GMS Road Map  MRC’s Hydropower Data Base  MRC’s BDP Scenarios with updated information on mainstream projects from the SEA  Stakeholder submissions? Apart from National data and available project studies from Developers On power sector aspects

4. Existing Information Available Provides Information on Thailand’s: Power Sector and Hydropower Policies and Strategies Thailand Load forecast from PDP (2005) Hydropower projects and resources in Thailand (e.g. Existing Hydro: 767 MW – 885 GW) Development of Transmission in Northern Thailand – ( a map)

5. Source: EIA 2009 Thailand: Overall demand-supply trend Thailand’s electricity supply and consumption 1981 - 2006 Thailand’s electricity consumption by sector 2003 Source: ASEAN Centre for energy

6. Thailand demand forecasts to 2025 Source: Ministry of Energy (cited Draft Mekong River Basin Hydropower Sector Review in Thailand, 2009), Economics of energy integration, ADB, 2008 What are the latest projections? What are the challenges meeting demand? To what extent is new generation planned e.g. criteria? 1.To meet load growth 2.To replace retiring plant 3.To fuel switch? E.g. for renewable energy? Possible Discussion Points

7. Source: EGAT (cited Draft Mekong River Basin Hydropower Sector Review in Thailand, 2009) Thailand Electricity Generation by fuel type: Past and Future? One Scenario 2005 – 2025 (ADB) Source: Economics of energy integration, ADB, 2008 (base case) ? Policies and Trends: Power Import Policies? Fuel Specific Policies? Possible Discussion Points: Actual 1986-2006

8. 123 in operation, under construction and planned, total some 15,700 MW Hydropower projects on Lower Mekong tributaries Planned / Proposed Includes proposed mainstream dams

9. Thailand policy context for cross-boarder power trade Relevant to mainstream dam proposals MOUs for power imports from Cambodia and Lao PDR) Lao PDR: MOU to import up to 3,000 MW, subject to PPAs and other terms Theun Hinboun and Huay Ho MOU to import up to 5,000 MW, subject to PPAs and other terms 2006 – Nam Theun 2 and Nam Ngum 2 (and Nam Ngum 3) Cambodia PDR: Strategy is power trade with neighbouring countries Legal framework for private developers and Public-Private Projects (PPPs)

10. Markets for proposed mainstream dams Installed capacities and energy generated subject to change with: Feasibility and EIA study Optimization Negotiation Other Thailand Power Market Candidates

11. Other Aspects? Thailand power project funds – local development – benefit sharing? Regulatory Policies? – e.g. Minimum Portfolio Standards? 0.5 to 8.0 % renewable by 2011? Valuation of GHG emission reduction from non- carbon electricity generation?

12. For Discussion 1.Demand-supply – latest update on information? 2.Future sources of power supply in Thailand – what policies? 3.Challenges in meeting demand – what are they? 4.Contribution of hydropower trade in meeting Thailand’s power demand - existing agreements and prospects – power import policy? 5.Hydropower development on the Mekong tributaries and mainstream 6.Other issues