1. RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY IN THE APEC REGION (Phase II)
Narumon INTHARAK and Jupri Haji JULAY
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
25TH Meeting of the APEC EGNRET
Tien Lai Spring Resort, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C.
31 October – 2 November 2005
2/2/2019

2. CURRENT APEC SITUATION QUESTIONS TO ADDRESS METHODOLOGY
OUTLINE
CURRENT APEC SITUATION
QUESTIONS TO ADDRESS
METHODOLOGY
FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS

3. CURRENT APEC SITUATION
NRE is still a minor contributor in electricity generation for the APEC Region
Biomass 50%
Geothermal 24%
Wind 6%
Other 20%
(PV, Hydro, Tide, etc.)
NRE
Nuclear 2%
15%
Coal
Hydro
44%
14%
Natural gas
Oil based
20% 5%

4. Electrification level (%) in selected APEC economies (2001)
1600 million people have no access to electricity in the world
200 million people in APEC region
Russia
Russia
China
China
Viet Nam
Viet Nam
Thailand
Thailand
Philippines
Philippines
Peru
Peru
Papua
New Guinea
New Guinea
Indonesia
Indonesia
Korea
Korea
Mexico
Mexico
Malaysia
Malaysia
Chile
Chile 25 25 50 50 75 75
100
100
Percentage
Percentage

5. Projected Electricity Generation for the APEC Region

6. What is the real cost of supplying electricity from fossil fuels?
QUESTIONS TO ADDRESS
What is the real cost of supplying electricity from fossil fuels?
How to eliminate or reduce the relatively high cost of renewable electricity technologies?

7. analyze electricity costs by internalizing externalities
METHODOLOGY
analyze electricity costs by internalizing
externalities
assess the share of NRE technologies
based on fair competition among other
fossil fuel technologies to meet demand

8. DEFINING EXTERNALITY
“Fuel cycle externalities are the costs imposed on society and the
environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers
of energy, i.e. that are not included in the market price.
They include damage to the natural and built environment, such as effects
of air pollution on health, buildings, crops, forests and global warming;
occupational disease and accidents; and reduced amenity from visual
intrusion of plant or emissions of noise.
Traditional economic assessment of fuel cycles has tended to ignore
these effects.”
European Commission

9. BAU case)- are compared Two time periods: 2005 to 2010 and
BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SCOPE
Two different estimations - with and without externality accounting (Externality case and
BAU case)- are compared
Two time periods: 2005 to 2010 and
2011 to 2020
Capacity projections based on:
official national data of fossil fuels (and nuclear)
technical potential for NRE (allowing room for improvements)

10. BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SCOPE
Leveraged cost of electricity production is the sum of two to four components : investment cost, operation and management cost (O&M), fuel cost and externalities.
LeveragedCost (lCost) = Investment Cost + O&M Cost + Fuel Cost + Externality Cost
Externality cost = is based on EU 2003 estimation

11. LEVERAGED COSTS FOR TECHNOLOGIES (Chinese Taipei)
without externalities, coal is the cheapest option and NRE (except
solar) are competitive to natural gas.

12. RESULTS AND FINDINGS (APEC Region)
Individual sensitivities of APEC member economies to the application of externality
with the application of externality to
the cost of generation, more than half
or 9 of the APEC member economies
have significant changes in generation
structure, of more than 5%
this estimation discounts the effects of
transmission line construction and
dispatching.

13. RESULTS AND FINDINGS (APEC Region)
the real cost of generation would be twice as much as that without
externalities, US$ 1,137 Billion
economies could actually save up to 5% of real cost with the application
of externality
2005
2020
Unit
Externality
case
BAU
Difference -
Electricity generation
TWh
10,173
15,659
15,659
Leveraged generation cost
Bln USD
305
482
448 32
Cost of Externality
Bln USD
454
600
689
- 89
Leveraged generation cost
¢ per kWh
3.0
3.1
2.9
0.2
Cost of externality
¢ per kWh
4.5
3.8
4.6 -
0.8
Total generation cost
¢ per kWh
7.5
6.9
7.3 -
0.4

14. CURRENT NRE PROJECT : Results
Southeast Asia economies are the most to gain in the internalization of externality
-0.1
-2.29
0.0
1.95
USA
-1.3
-3.43
0.3
0.74
Thailand
negl.
Singapore
-0.7
-10.49
0.2
3.47
Russia
-1.78
0.4
0.48
Philippines
-0.05
0.1
0.05
Peru
Papua New Guinea
-0.06
0.03
New Zealand
-0.8
-5.07
2.74
Mexico
-2.3
1.2
2.59
Malaysia
-3.63
0.6
3.16
Korea
Japan
-1.8
-5.87
0.8
2.68
Indonesia
-0.04
-0.03
0.02
Hong Kong, China
-0.38
0.35
Chinese Taipei
-39.67
11.96
China
-1.6
-2.06
0.9
1.19
Chile
-0.9
-6.79
1.97
Canada
Brunei Darussalam
-2.80
0.84
Australia
c/kWh
bln $
Economy
Externality cost
Generation cost
-2.9
-3.60
0.5
0.66
Viet Nam
APEC average
Brunei Darussalam
Viet Nam
Thailand
Philippines
Canada
Australia
China
Russia
Indonesia
Papua New Guinea
Malaysia
New Zealand
Mexico
Hong Kong, China
Chile
USA
Korea
Chinese Taipei
Peru
Externality yield over generation cost,
Japan
$ per $
Singapore 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

15. CONCLUSION
NRE is still a minor contributor in electricity generation for the APEC Region
Southeast Asia economies show the least level of electrification and
the highest potential for NRE expansion through internalization of externality
the real cost of generation is twice as much as that without externalities
in general APEC economies could gain much from the internalization
of externality
with the application of externality to the cost of generation, more than half
of the APEC member economies have been found to exhibit significant
changes in generation structure, favoring NRE

16. THANK YOU