1. THE ASIAN OIL PROBLEM: Regional Cooperation in ASEAN By Guillermo R. Balce ASEAN Centre for Energy Jakarta, Indonesia 2001

2. Introduction To analyse the oil situation in Asia and unravel the underlying problems, Southeast Asia must be treated as a distinct entity from Northeast Asia and South Asia. This is dictated by at least two major reasons: Geography and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). This presentation provides a brief view of the oil industry situation in the ASEAN region, as follows: Oil Industry Structure Supply – Demand Crude Oil Trade Flows and Chokepoints Petroleum Reserves ASEAN Cooperation

3. Oil Industry Structure of the ASEAN Countries COUNTRY ACTIVITY AREA DOMINANT SECTOR RegulationUpstreamDownstreamGov’tPrivate BRUNEI D. BOGABSP & PrivateBSP CAMBODIA CNPAContractorsImporters, Retailers INDONESIA PertaminaPertamina / Contractors / Operators LAO PDR MTTNoneMTT MALAYSIA PetronasPetronas / Contractors / Operators MYANMAR MOGEMOGE/ContractorsGov’t Enterprises PHILIPPINES DOEPNOC / PrivateDeregulated 1998 SINGAPORE EMANoneDeregulated THAILANDPTTPTT / ContractorsDeregulated 1991 VIETNAMPetroVietnamPetroVietnam / Contractors Gov’t Companies BOGA: Brunei Oil & Gas Authority; BSP: Brunei Shell Petroleum; CNPA: Cambodia National Petroleum Authority; MTT: Ministry of Trade and Tourism; MOGE: Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise; DOE: Department of Energy; PNOC: Philippine National Oil Company; EMA: Energy Market Authority; PTT: Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

4. Oil Supply - Demand ASEAN Crude Oil Production (in KTOE) COUNTRY199519982000 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM8,680.007,801.179,597.68 CAMBODIA0.00 INDONESIA76,741.0068,372.56*27,777.01 LAO PDR0.00 MALAYSIA35,090.0035,784.00*14,260.00 MYANMAR0.00549.00544.00 PHILIPPINES97.0025.4446.10 SINGAPORE0.00 THAILAND2,550.003,618.004,891.00 VIETNAM7,880.00N.A. ASEAN131,038.00116,150.17++57,115.79 Source: ACE 2001 Note : * (1st semester only)

5. Oil Supply - Demand Petroleum Product Consumption of the ASEAN Countries (in KTOE) COUNTRY199519982000 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM449.00548.88900.18 CAMBODIA431.00525.20974.00 INDONESIA37,132.3242,517.04*22,624.02 LAO PDR378.00607.00N.A. MALAYSIA18,986.0020,883.40*8,279.00 MYANMAR1,322.00548.88638.65 PHILIPPINES12,437.0019,766.1813,145.10 SINGAPORE4,726.00N.A.N.A THAILAND32,476.0022,853.4427,048.36 VIETNAM5,278.005,806.00N.A. ASEAN113,615.32114,056.02++ 73,609.31 Source: ACE 2001 Note : * (1st semester only)

6. Oil Supply - Demand ASEAN Refinery Outputs (in KTOE) COUNTRY199519982000 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM528.00888.84539.75 CAMBODIAN.R. INDONESIA34,051.7144,509.20 1 26,354.31 LAO PDRN.R. MALAYSIA16,686.0016,732.40 1 10,552.00 MYANMAR926.00888.84821.29 PHILIPPINES15,303.00* 16,144.0014,858.30 SINGAPORE* 46,629.00* 47,694.00N.A. THAILAND22,211.0032,707.8933,700.26 VIETNAMN.R. ASEAN136,334.71159,565.17++86,825.91 Source: ACE 2001; *IEA – Oil Information 2000; Note : N.R. – No Refineries; 1 (1st semester only)

7. Current Oil Security Situation: Self Sufficiency COUNTRY SELF SUFFICIENCY (CRUDE OIL PROD. / TOTAL PETRO. CONSUMPTION) 199519982000 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM19.33014.21010.660 CAMBODIA0.000 INDONESIA2.0701.610*1.230 LAO PDR0.000 MALAYSIA1.8501.710*1.720 MYANMAR0.000 0.850 PHILIPPINES0.0100.0600.004 SINGAPORE0.000 THAILAND0.0800.1600.180 VIETNAM1.490N.A. Source: ACE 2001 Note : * (1 st semester only)

8. Life Expectancy of Reserves COUNTRY OIL RESERVE (MTOE) RESERVE LIFE Reserve/Production or *Consumption (Years) BRUNEI DARUSSALAM196.0025 CAMBODIA0.000 INDONESIA1,372.0020 LAO PDR0.000 MALAYSIA478.8013 MYANMAR28.0051 PHILIPPINES39.90* 3 SINGAPORE0.000 THAILAND21.846 VIETNAM364.0046 ASEAN2500.54* 22 Source: ACE 2001

9. Crude Oil Trade Flows & Chokepoints

10. Petroleum Reserves Source: BP Statistical Review 2001 ASEAN* 17.861 * ACE 2001

11. Petroleum Reserves Legend Oil field/s Gas/condensate field/s Oil/gas field/s INDONESIA Oil:9.8 BBl Gas:166 TCF INDONESIA Oil:9.8 BBl Gas:166 TCF MYANMAR Oil:0.20 BBl Gas:12.07 TCF MYANMAR Oil:0.20 BBl Gas:12.07 TCF THAILAND Oil:0.156 BBl Gas:12.2 TCF THAILAND Oil:0.156 BBl Gas:12.2 TCF MALAYSIA Oil:3.42 BBl Gas:84.4 TCF MALAYSIA Oil:3.42 BBl Gas:84.4 TCF LAO PDR Oil:- Gas:- LAO PDR Oil:- Gas:- CAMBODIA Oil:- Gas:- CAMBODIA Oil:- Gas:- SINGAPORE Oil:- Gas:- SINGAPORE Oil:- Gas:- VIETNAM Oil:2.6 BBl Gas:25 TCF VIETNAM Oil:2.6 BBl Gas:25 TCF BRUNEI Oil:1.4 BBl Gas:13.8 TCF BRUNEI Oil:1.4 BBl Gas:13.8 TCF PHILIPPINES Oil:0.285 BBl Gas:4.6 TCF PHILIPPINES Oil:0.285 BBl Gas:4.6 TCF

12. Petroleum Reserves COUNTRY OIL (Billion Barrel) GAS (Trillion Cubic Feet) BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 1.40013.800 CAMBODIA -- INDONESIA 9.800166.000 LAO PDR -- MALAYSIA 3.42084.400 MYANMAR 0.20012.070 PHILIPPINES 0.2854.600 SINGAPORE -- THAILAND 0.15612.200 VIETNAM2.60025.000 TOTAL17.861318.070 Source: ESSPA Report 2001; BP Statistical Report 2001.

13. ASEAN Energy Cooperation Energy Security : The driving force 1970 2000 1990 1995 1985 1980 1975 GLOBAL OIL CRISIS ASEAN ENERGY COOPERATION 1970 2000 1990 1995 1985 1980 1975 ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (1999-2004) Establishment of ACE (1999) Hanoi Plan of Action ASEAN Vision 2020 (1999) ASEAN Program of Action on Energy Cooperation (1995- 1999) ASEAN Energy Amendment (1995); AEMEC to AMEM Priority for ASEAN Power Grid, APSA and TAGP (1994) Thai-Indo Coal Coop. (1990) AEEMTRC creation (1988) Phil – Indo Coal Coop. (1987 ASEAN Energy Cooperation Agreement (1986) ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA, 1986) 1 st Meeting of HAPUA (1981) Indonesia & Malaysia assisted other ASEAN Countries on oil needs / 1 st AEMEC (1980) ASCOPE’s Emergency Petroleum sharing scheme (1977) ASCOPE creation (1976) ASEAN Emergency Petroleum Sharing Scheme Supplementary to ASCOPE’s (1983) ASEAN Establishment (1967) Gulf War (1990) Iran – Iraq Tanker War (1981-1988) 2 nd Oil Shock (1979) 1 st Oil Shock (1973) ENERGYSECURITYENERGYSECURITY ASCOPE: ASEAN Council on Petroleum ; AEEMTRC: ASEAN-EU Energy Management Training and Research Centre; TAGP: Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline; AMEM: ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting

14. The ASEAN Energy Sector ASEAN HEADS OF STATE/GOVERNMENT AMMST OTHER MINISTERIAL MEETINGS ASEAN CENTRE FOR ENERGY (ACE) COST A M M ASEAN S G A E M OTHER MINISTERIAL MEETINGS A S CS O M ASCOPE NRSE SSN EE & C SSN HAPUAAEBFAFOC SCNCER ASEAN SECRETARIAT A M E M S O M E LEGEND: AEBF: ASEAN Energy Business Forum AEM: ASEAN Economic Ministers AFOC: ASEAN Forum on Coal AMEM: ASEAN Ministers of Energy Meeting AMM: ASEAN Ministerial Meeting AMMST: ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Science & Technology ASC: ASEAN Standing Committee ASCOPE: ASEAN Council on Petroleum COST: Committee on Science & Technology EE&C SSN: Energy Efficiency and Conservation Subsectoral Network HAPUA: Heads of ASEAN Power Utilities/Authorities NRSE SSN: New & Renewable Sources of Energy Subsectoral Network SCNCER: Sub-Committee on Non-Conventional Energy Research S G: Secretary General SOM: Senior Officials Meeting SOME: Senior Officials Meeting on Energy

15. Energy Cooperation in General ASEAN VISION 2020 “Interconnecting arrangements in the field of energy … for electricity, natural gas … within ASEAN through the ASEAN Power Grid and a Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline.” Declared by the ASEAN Heads of State / Government at the 2 nd ASEAN Informal Summit in Kuala Lumpur, 14 – 16 December 1997

16. ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation 1999-2004 PROGRAMME AREAS ASEAN Power Grid Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline Coal Energy Efficiency and Conservation New and Renewable Sources of Energy Regional Energy Outlook, Energy Policy and Environmental Analysis

17. TAGP Master Plan 2001

18. ASEAN Power Grid 1.Peninsular Malaysia – Singapore 2.Thailand – Peninsular Malaysia 3.Sarawak – Peninsular Malaysia 4.Sumatra – Peninsular Malaysia 5.Batam – Bintan – Singapore 6.Sarawak – West Kalimantan 7.Philippines – Sabah 8.Sarawak – Sabah – Brunei 9.Thailand – Lao PDR 10.Lao PDR – Cambodia 11.Thailand – Myanmar 12.Vietnam – Cambodia 13.Lao PDR – Vietnam 14.Thailand – Cambodia 15.Sabah – East Kalimantan 1.Peninsular Malaysia – Singapore 2.Thailand – Peninsular Malaysia 3.Sarawak – Peninsular Malaysia 4.Sumatra – Peninsular Malaysia 5.Batam – Bintan – Singapore 6.Sarawak – West Kalimantan 7.Philippines – Sabah 8.Sarawak – Sabah – Brunei 9.Thailand – Lao PDR 10.Lao PDR – Cambodia 11.Thailand – Myanmar 12.Vietnam – Cambodia 13.Lao PDR – Vietnam 14.Thailand – Cambodia 15.Sabah – East Kalimantan 15

19. Other ASEAN Cooperation Schemes Related to Oil ASEAN Petroleum Sharing Agreement (APSA, 1986) Common Effective Preferential Tariff Scheme for the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA, 1992) Agreement for the Facilitation of Search of Ships in Distress and Rescue of Survivors of Ship Accidents (1975) ASEAN Framework Agreement on Multimodal Transport (2001) The remaining transport-related Protocols for the ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Goods in Transit (2001) ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Inter- State Transport (2001).

20. Conclusions Southeast Asia has strategic chokepoints for major Middle East oil destinations. The oil industries in five of the ten ASEAN Countries have dominant government roles. But, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are on the road to deregulation and privatisation. Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are net oil exporters. Myanmar may also follow. However, ASEAN as a whole is likely to become net oil importer in 22 years. The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) ensures unified actions on issues of energy and economic security. The main elements of ASEAN Energy Cooperation are: – –Specialized bodies on various fields of energy, with ASCOPE and ACE in the forefront of cooperation in petroleum. – –ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation guided by ASEAN Vision 2020 of a Trans- ASEAN Gas Pipeline and an ASEAN Power Grid. – –ASEAN Petroleum Sharing Agreement (APSA) – –ASEAN Free Trade Area Scheme (AFTA)

21. THANK YOU

22. Crude Oil Import and Export (in KTOE) COUNTRY IMPORTEXPORT 199519982000199519982000 BRUNEI D.0.00 8,319.007,509.009,415.00 CAMBODIAN.A. INDONESIA9,301.0010,519.00*5,066.0042,344.0035,178.00*13,313.00 LAO PDR0.00 MALAYSIA1,315.002,014.003,973.0019,833.0018,640.00*8,503.00 MYANMAR536.00650.00657.000.00 PHILIPPINES16,005.0016.0015,215.0092.000.00 SINGAPORE54,785.00N.A. 65.00N.A. THAILAND22,840.0033,924.0039,169.00716.001,031.00N.A. VIETNAMN.A. 7,839.00N.A. ASEAN104,782.0047,123.00 + 64,080.0079,208.0062,358.00 + 31,231.00 Source: ACE 2001 Note : * (1st semester only)

23. Import & Export of Petroleum Products (in KTOE) COUNTRY IMPORTEXPORT 199519982000199519982000 BRUNEI D.7.0051.4728.420.000.840.00 CAMBODIA* 525.00* 675.00N.A.0.00 INDONESIA22,075.0924,745.81 1 6,769.9549,260.0643,144.09 1 4,134.80 LAO PDR0.28* 607.00N.A.0.00 MALAYSIA9,411.009,359.50 1 3,113.007,428.007,193.80 1 4,378.00 MYANMAR201.00767.35884.6810.000.00 PHILIPPINES2,054.002,122.163,269.491,496.00* 889.001,731.16 SINGAPORE27,199.00*33,873.00N.A.66,667.00*45,654.00N.A. THAILAND9,190.001,266.191,182.88453.004,213.814,859.27 VIETNAM5,094.00* 6,518.00N.A.0.00 ASEAN75,756.3779,985.48 ++15,248.42 125,314.05101,095.54 ++15,103.23 Source: IEA – Oil Information 2000; *ACE – ESSPA 2001 Note : 1 (1st semester only)