Catherine Thomasson, MD Physicians for Social Responsibility

Competition for scarce resources Migration Partial social structures/gov’t control Demographic & economic inequities Gender inequality, youth bulge/unemployment Abundance of lootable resources Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

3 Degradation of farm land erosion, nutrient depletion, compacting, salinization, loss to urbanization ↑ runoff rates Changed hydro cycles transpiration rates, soil moisture, precipitation patterns Erosion, silting More frequent droughts, floods Sea level rise Extreme weather events Infestation Reduced irrigation capacity Overuse, pollution of water supplies Coastal flooding, damage water, food Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999 Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

2.3 billion people live in water stressed areas 1.7 billion live in water scarce areas* By 2025: 3.5 billion people projected to live in water stressed areas 2.4 billion in water scarce areas * By 2100: 1/3 world risk of extreme drought** Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 *UNEP // **Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology Sept. 2006

Grain yields  by 10% for every 1°C  in global average surface T° 2°C to 3°C  likely; 3°C to 5°C  possible Therefore 20% to 30%  likely; 30% to 50%  possible 5 Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

Pop: 22 million Size of N. Dakota Hot and dry in summer, rainy and mild in winter Was a middle income developing country 11% below the poverty line (0.06% less than U.S.) 10% of pop in 2007 were refugees (Iraqi, Palestinian, Lebanese) Repressive government/some corruption

7 Syria Vegetation Health Index an_&_Babah_2010.pdf From 2006 to 2011: 60 percent of land affected by drought 1 million in 2007 with (75%) crop loss Herders sold animals for % below original price Required wheat importation for first time. Sandstorms were happening up to twice a week.

Global Food Production Individual Food Supply Distribution Access CLIMATE CHANGE Adaptation Resilience vs Vulnerability The Global Food System and Climate Change Global Food Supply Resources Land Water Energy Soil Labor Sectors Agriculture Livestock Wild Fisheries Aquaculture Global Food Production Sectors Agriculture Livestock Wild Fisheries Aquaculture Resources Land Water Energy Soil Labor Meat consumption Population Technology Conflict Policies Poverty/Inequality Economic Development Income Food Prices Food Aid Social, Political & Economic Factors ? Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

S M Hsiang et al. Science 2013;341: quantitative studies Associations between climate variables and conflict over time

S M Hsiang et al. Science 2013;341:

More violent behavior in high temperature climates. In low-income settings, extreme rainfall events that adversely affect agricultural income are associated with higher rates of personal violence and property crime. High temperatures associated with increased property crime, but most with violent crimes

Intergroup political conflict increases in low-income areas with Low water availability Very low temperatures Very high temperatures. Political conflicts often have a direct link a to climate- induced changes in income. Reports of effect of climate on conflict is relatively standard: consistent with 35 studies of modern data and 28 other studies of intergroup conflict.

Slide c/oCL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 Kenya: deforestation  less rain and more run-off  water scarcity  hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water wars Most water conflict has been intra-national

Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are at the root of tensions Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of military actions by nations or states Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a military action Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a political goal Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source of contention/dispute in context of economic development Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,

Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013 Population growth “Demand- induced scarcity” Unequal resource access “Structure- induced scarcity” Increased environmental scarcity Migration, expulsion Decreased economic productivity Weakened states Ethnic conflicts Coups d’état Deprivation conflicts Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999 ↓ water, food “Supply- induced scarcity”

Supply-induced Scarcity: Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater Annual rainfall = million cubic meters 60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to evaporation Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage, agricultural runoff, and saltwater million cubic meters = sustainable supply Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

Demand-induced scarcity: Consumption: 3x natural supply Population increases Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption Frozen at 1967 levels Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or repairing water/sewer infrastructure Uneven pricing schemes Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli settlers pay for water Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking water to ~20% population; rest buy bottled drinking water Families pay 1/3 their monthly income for water Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

Climate impacts are observable, measurable, real, and having near and long-term consequences” Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes, the report states, “increases the threat of more failed states with the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such failures.”

Scarce resources can be used as a tool Cooperate to manage environmental resources transform insecurities and create more peaceful relationships between parties in dispute overcome political tensions promoting interaction, confidence building, and technical cooperation -Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

Engage scientific community to identify Regions of high risk Elements of climate change related risk Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease Elements of resilience What allows communities faced with catastrophe to NOT devolve into conflict? How can the US assist in fostering these elements to prevent future conflict Slide c/o CL Parker, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 2013

Fig. 2 Empirical studies indicate that climatological variables have a large effect on the risk of violence or instability in the modern world.(A to L) Examples from studies of modern data that identify the causal effect of climate variables on human conflict. S M Hsiang et al. Science 2013;341: