IDE-Geographical Simulation Model (GSM): Predicting the Future of ASEAN Satoru KUMAGAI(IDE-JETRO/MIER)

IDE-GSM is a simulation model based on spatial economics Simulate the long-term evolution of population and the location of industries Estimate the economic effects of infrastructure development and customs facilitation at sub-national level. What is IDE-GSM? 2

GDP per capita(2005) 3 Economic Data at sub-national region 7 sectors -Agriculture/Mini ng -Automotive -E&E -Textile&German t -Food Processing -Other Mfg. -Services

Transport Network Data 4 Road Networks multi-modal - Road - Sea - Air - Rail

Predicting the Future Predicting the GDP per capita by region in AESAN countries using IDE-GSM Population growth rate and Productivity growth rate are exogenously given Inter-industry and Inter-regional labour movement is allowed, and it causes endogenous growth, but international immigration is prohibited.

High income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income NA GDP per Capita by region ( )

Population by income (2012) High income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income NA

High income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income NA GDP per Capita by region ( )

High income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income NA GDP per Capita by region ( )

Population by income (2030) High income Upper-middle income Lower-middle income Low income NA

Population by income (28%) (1%) (5%) (17%) (26%) (53%) (27%) (44%)

Calculating the economic impacts We can change the transport network data to calculate the impacts of transport infrastructure developments Compare the GDP at 2030 between “base- line(no development)” and “development” scenarios.

Economic Impacts of NSEC(2030)

Conclusion IDE-GSM is to forecast the future distribution of population and industry. Can be used to calculate the economic impacts of various trade and customs facilitation measures Policy making on the infrastructure development is to be more “scientific” by IDE- GSM

Thank you Terima kasih ขอบคุณ cảm ơ n bạn ຂໍຂອບໃຈທ່ານ Salamat