The Impact of Current Levels of Migration March 2015

The UK Population Today The UK population in mid-2013 was 64.1 million. The latest statistics show that net migration is currently 298,000 per year (Year Ending September 2014). This means that 298,000 more came to the UK for a year or more than left the country. This level is almost 5 times average net migration during the 1990s.

Net Migration to the UK has, since 1997, been on an entirely new scale…

Population Projections – The Official Impact of Immigration on the UK Population According to the 2012-based official population projections the UK population will reach 70 million by mid-2027 and 80 million around Of this increase, the ONS claim that 60% will be the result of future migrants and their future children. These projections are based on net migration of 165,000 a year. However, average net migration over the last 10 years has been 240,000. If net migration is allowed to continue at the present level (298,000 a year) the UK population will reach 70 million in around 2023.

Population Projections – The Actual Impact of Immigration on the UK Population (cont.) Over the longer term, all or almost all population growth is due to immigration because, as the official population projections show, with net migration at zero the UK population would begin to decline in around three decades.

Public Opinion

Public Opinion (cont.) 77% think that the number of immigrants coming to Britain should be reduced, 56% by a lot 79% of people in England believe that England is overcrowded, 37% saying it is very overcrowded. 79% believe that the UK population is too high. 76% believe that immigration has placed too much pressure on public services such as health, transport and education.

Where do net migrants come from? Traditionally most net migration to the UK has been from outside the European Union however this has been declining over the last few years. Meanwhile EU migration has been increasing and is now almost at a similar level. There has always been a net outflow of British citizens which in recent years has averaged around 50,000 a year.

Who are the net migrants?

Immigration to the UK by Reason

Immigration to the UK by Reason (cont.) Students are the largest category of migrants. Their number increased sharply in 2008 due to changes to the immigration system. A sharp fall in recent years is due to a crackdown on abuse, largely in the Further Education sector. University applications have increased by 17% since Work migration fell in 2007 largely due to the recession and is now capped at 20,700. The cap is yet to bite although this will change as the economy continues to grow. Family migration has fallen in recent years because the rules surrounding spouse migration were tightened. Fewer workers also brought fewer dependants and only above graduate level students studying for a year or more can bring their dependants with them.

Asylum Applications and Grants,

Asylum Applications for asylum have been averaging around 20,000 per year which is only 10% of net migration, although there was a slight increase in % of asylum applicants are found to not have a claim, even after an appeal hearing. 50% of applicants claim asylum only after detection.

Implications of Net Migration on the present scale… Large scale net migration is increasing the population rapidly, placing additional demands on local infrastructure, housing and public services. The rate of population growth is not matched by an expansion of these amenities and services meaning that there is increased competition for more scarce resources. Large scale low skilled migration reduces the wages of those at the lower end of the scale while increases the wages of those at the top.

Implications for Projected Household Formation Migration accounts for over a third of projected additional future household formation, requiring 200 homes to be built every day for the next 20 years, or one every 7 minutes.

Migration Policy Net migration must eventually be brought down to the low tens of thousands if the population is to be stabilised. Non-EU net migration has fallen by around 30% since its height in 2004 and is now around 190,000 a year. Further reductions are needed. EU migration has risen sharply in recent years to 160,000 a year. Effective measures achieved through a renegotiation are essential if EU migration is to be brought under control.

What can continue… Free movement of genuine students who leave at the end of their studies. Adequate scope for key workers from overseas to fill skills gaps while British workers are trained. Refuge for genuine asylum seekers.

A properly managed immigration system… Balances the need for a competitive economy with the costs of a rapidly growing population. Should provide, as the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee recommended, a “reasoned target range for net immigration” to which net migration policies could be adjusted. Reduces pressure on the environment, NHS, schools and transport. Encourages British industry and commerce to train British workers. Improves the prospects for integrating newcomers into society. Reduces the drain of talented and educated people from the developing who need their skills more than we do.

Sources and References Population Estimates – ONS Actual Contribution of Immigration to Population Growth, Migration Watch UK, URL: Household Formation – English Housing Survey 2008 Population Projections – ONS Public Opinion – Ipsos MORI Immigration Statistics – ONS Migration Statistics Quarterly Reports Asylum Applications and Grants – Home Office Statistics Visa Statistics – Home Office Statistics PQ on Asylum Claims, - Frank Field, Hansard, 15 October 2013, c642W. Opinion Poll URLs: high/?phpMyAdmin=e11b8b687c20198d9ad050fbb1aa7f2f, july-2011, report/immigration/introduction.aspxhttp://migrationwatchuk.com/excel/yougov xls high/?phpMyAdmin=e11b8b687c20198d9ad050fbb1aa7f2f july-2011http:// report/immigration/introduction.aspx