1. Family Migration Vanna Aldin The Migration Advisory Committee and evidence based policy decisions Vanna Aldin Migration Advisory Committee secretariat www.ukba.homeoffice.gov.uk/mac 1

2. The Migration Advisory Committee  It is a non departmental public body set up and sponsored by the Home Office in 2007.  It provides advice to the government on migration policy, it does not make policy decisions but provides transparent, independent and evidence based recommendations.  The government commissions the MAC on specific migration issues and then decides whether or not to accept in full or in part the recommendations made by the MAC in its independently published reports. 2

3. UKCES Home Office Migration Advisory Committee Members 3

4. Overview of the UK migration system  The Point-Based System (PBS) was introduced in 2008 to manage work- and study-related migration of non-EEA nationals.  PBS consists of 5 tiers:  Tier 1: highly-skilled migrants coming for work reasons without a definite job offer.  Tier 2: skilled (at graduate level) migrant workers with a definite job offer and intra-company transfers.  Tier 3: low-skilled migrant workers (never opened).  Tier 4: students.  Tier 5: youth mobility schemes and temporary workers.  EEA migrants have unrestricted access to the UK with the exception of Bulgarian and Romanians nationals (A2) who have labour market restrictions till the end of 2013. 4

5. 5 MAC’s approach in its response to government commissions  Top-down approach: undertake economic analysis of national-level data from datasets such as IPS, LTIM, Immigration Statistics, UK Border Agency MI, LFS, ASHE, Nomis, ESS.  Bottom-up approach: calls for evidence, consultation events, visits to business, workshops with experts and academics, meetings with businesses and sector representatives, trade unions, officials from government departments.  MAC research programme.  Dovetailing top-down and bottom-up evidence: the committee assess evidence, and uses it according to its quality, robustness, relevance, and coverage to inform its recommendations.  The MAC produces a report in response to each commission, submits to the government and publishes it on its own website soon after.

6. 6 MAC work in the past The MAC has advised the government on several aspects of the Point- Based System since this was introduced in 2008, mainly on:  Tier 2: criteria and points for Tier 2 General and Intra-Company Transfer Route, for dependants, for settlement, skill level, review of the shortage occupation list (currently carrying out the 6 th review), limits, codes of practice.  Tier 1: criteria and points for Tier 1 General, criteria for Post-Study Work route, criteria for the entrepreneur and investor routes.  The MAC has also provided advice on the family route, economic and social impacts of migration and how to assess these impacts in the government Impact Assessments, labour market restrictions on A8 and A2.  The MAC has published 16 reports: most of the recommendations accepted and adopted by the government.

7. Examples of how the MAC uses statistics to inform its policy advice 7

8. Calculating the Tier 2 (General) limit for 2012/13 Government question  At what level should the limit on Tier 2 (General) be set for 2012/13 consistent with the Government’s objective to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands in the future? MAC findings and recommendations  Arithmetic approach similar to that adopted in our 2010 Limits report.  We presented three scenarios for reducing net migration to the ‘tens of thousands’ in the future. 8 Table 8.1: Scenarios used for analysis Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Target 50,00099,000 Time to achieve 3 years, ending (2014/15) 3 years, ending (2014/15) 5 years, ending (2016/17)

9. Calculating the limit for 2012/13 (continued) 9  Assumptions:  Proportionate reductions in Tier 2 visa grants each year.  Net migration of British nationals and EU nationals would remain at their current levels.  Tier 2 (General) would account for a reduction in net migration that is proportionate to its estimated share of non-EU national inflows.  Under these assumptions, the maximum number of visa grants to Tier 2 (General) and intra-company transfer main applicants consistent with reducing net migration to the ‘tens of thousands’ would range between 36,400 (scenario 1) and 42,300 (scenario 3).  If take-up of Tier 2 (General) and intra-company transfer visas continue at recent levels in 2012/13, this would imply 39,400 visa grants through these routes in 2012/13. This is below the ceiling implied by scenario 3.  We recommended that the Tier 2 (General) limit should remain unchanged at 20,700 for 2012/13.

10. Calculating the limit for 2012/13 (continued) 10 Table 8.9 : Summary of calculation steps to derive scenarios 1, 2 and 3 for limits on Tier 2 Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 (A) Assumed Net LTIM to year ending Q1 2012 245,000 (B) Time to achieve 3 years, ending (2014/15) 5 years, ending (2016/17) (C) Assumed target 50,00099,000 (D) Assumed change in net British and other EU migration by end of period 000 (E) Required reduction in net LTIM {A minus C minus D} 195,000146,000 (F) Reduction in net LTIM per year {E divided by B} 65,00048,70029,200 (G) Reduction in work-related IPS flows per year {F split according to proportion of non-EU IPS inflows} 13,0009,7005,800 (H) 'IPS-Visa' Scaling Factor for work-related flows0.55 (I) Reductions in work-related visas per year {G divided by H} 23,60017,60010,500 (J) Proportion of annual reduction assumed to be borne by Tier 1 and Tier 2 in 2012/13 45% (K) Reduction in Tier 1 and Tier 2 visas for 2012/13 {I multiplied by J} 10,6007,9004,700 (L) Assumed baseline volume of Tier 1 and Tier 2 visas at beginning of 2012/13 1 48,000 (M) Post-reduction volume of Tier 1 and Tier 2 visas for 2012/13 {L minus K} 37,40040,10043,300 … of which Tier 1 Exceptional Talent1,000 … of which Tier 236,40039,10042,300 Notes: LTIM refers to Long Term International Migration. IPS refers to International Passenger Survey. Required reductions are based on calculations of a reduction in net non-EU migration towards an assumed target. Initial LTIM estimates rounded to the nearest thousand. Calculation steps rounded to the nearest hundred. 1 Includes Tier 1 General, Exceptional Talent, Tier 2 (General) and intra-company transfer routes. Source: MAC analysis of Office for National Statistics (2011c)

11. Labour market impact of migration 11

12. Shortage: top-down analysis 12

13. 13 MAC wish list  IPS/LTIM: improved match between IPS data and visa data for family, work and students migration flows.  Immigration Statistics:  Certificates of Sponsorship (CoS) data split by the standard Occupation Classification (SOC) or even better, entry clearance and in-country visa data split by SOC.  Duration of visa and CoS.  Cos, entry clearance and in-country visa data for Tier 2 (General) split between RLMT and shortage occupation routes.  More on migrants demographics characteristics, labour market experience, UK journey experience (with more info collected at extension/settlement application point).