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The Impact of Current Levels of Migration No to 70 million June 2014
UK Population Today The UK population in mid-2013 was 64.1 million. According to the Government projections that this will hit 70 million by mid-2027 and 80 million around 2063. Of this increase, 60% will be the result of immigration, made up of both future migrants and their children. These projections are based on net migration of 165,000 a year. However, average net migration over the last 10 years was 238,000. If net migration is allowed to continue at present levels, the population of the UK will reach 70 million in 2026 and will increase by 10 million in 20 years.
Net Migration to the UK has, since 1997, been on an entirely new scale…
Public Opinion has responded…
Public Opinion cont. 77% think that the number of immigrants coming to Britain should be reduced, 56% by a lot 79% of people in England believe that England is overcrowded, 37% saying it is very overcrowded. 79% believe that the UK population is too high. 76% believe that immigration has placed too much pressure on public services such as health, transport and education.
Implications for Projected Household Formation Migration accounts for over a third of projected additional future household formation, requiring 200 homes to be built every day for the next 20 years, or one every 7 minutes.
Where do net migrants come from? Traditionally most net migration to the UK has been from outside the EU but this has been declining over the last decade. Meanwhile EU migration has been increasing and is now almost at a similar level. There has always been a net outflow of British citizens which in recent years has averaged around 50,000 a year.
Who are the net migrants?
Immigration to the UK by Reason
Immigration to the UK by Reason cont. Student inflow increased sharply in 2008 due to changes to the immigration system. A sharp fall in recent years is due to a crackdown on abuse, largely in the FE sector. University applications have increased by 17% since 2010. Work migration fell in 2007 largely due to the recession and is now capped at 20,700.
Asylum Applications and Grants, 1984-2012
Asylum Applications for asylum are now running at around 20,000 per year which is only 10% of net migration. 60% of asylum applicants are found to not have a claim, even after an appeal hearing. 50% of applicants claim asylum only after detection.
Migration Policy Net migration must eventually be brought down to around 40,000 per year if the UK population is to be stabilised. Non-EU net migration has fallen by a third since 2010 and is now around 140,000 a year. Further reductions are needed. EU migration has risen sharply in recent years to 125,000 a year. Some modification of EU free movement will be necessary, at least for as long as immigration pressures persist.
What can continue… Free movement of genuine students who leave at the end of their studies. Adequate scope for key workers from overseas to fill skills gaps while British workers are trained. Refuge for genuine asylum seekers.
A properly managed immigration system… Balances the need for a competitive economy with the costs of a rapidly growing population. Should provide, as the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee recommended, a “reasoned target range for net immigration” to which immigration policies could be adjusted. Reduces pressure on the environment, NHS, schools and transport. Encourages British industry and commerce to train British workers. Improves the prospects for integrating newcomers into society. Reduces the drain of talented and educated people from the developing who need their skills more than we do.
Sources and References Population Estimates – ONS Household Formation – English Housing Survey 2008 Population Projections – ONS Public Opinion – Ipsos MORI Immigration Statistics – ONS Migration Statistics Quarterly Reports Asylum Applications and Grants – Home Office Statistics Visa Statistics – Home Office Statistics PQ on Asylum Claims, - Frank Field, Hansard, 15 October 2013, c642W. Opinion Poll URLs: http://migrationwatchuk.com/excel/yougov-071111.xls, http://populationmatters.org/2011/population-matters-news/people-uk-population- high/?phpMyAdmin=e11b8b687c20198d9ad050fbb1aa7f2f, http://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/ipsos-global-dvisor-22-attitudes-to-immigration-july-2011, http://www.bsa-31.natcen.ac.uk/read-the-report/immigration/introduction.aspx http://migrationwatchuk.com/excel/yougov-071111.xls http://populationmatters.org/2011/population-matters-news/people-uk-population- high/?phpMyAdmin=e11b8b687c20198d9ad050fbb1aa7f2f http://www.slideshare.net/IpsosMORI/ipsos-global-dvisor-22-attitudes-to-immigration-july-2011 http://www.bsa-31.natcen.ac.uk/read-the-report/immigration/introduction.aspx
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