Organizations: Definitions State-A organizational unit or group of allied units that maintain a military force capable of fighting conventional battles. Guerilla-A permanent or semi-permanent military organization that is not sufficiently strong to confront the military of a state in a conventional battle. Terrorist-A relatively small organization that is not sufficiently strong to maintain an identifiable group for an extended time.

Examples of States State-A organizational unit or group of allied units that maintain a military force capable of fighting conventional battles United States Axis in WWII: Germany, Italy and Japan According to this definition not all nations are states

American Guerrilla: Francis Marion Called the ‘Swamp Fox’ Carried out raids through South Carolina in the Revolution Wrote book on guerrilla war Promises that you make to yourself are often like the Japanese plum tree - they bear no fruit.

American Guerrilla: George Washington The Indispensable Man Kept American forces from defeat during Revolution

Confederate Guerrilla: John Mosby Called the ‘Gray Ghost’ Captured Union General Edwin H. Stoughton Led partisans in northern Virginia

Confederate Guerrilla: William C. Quantrill Massacred males in Lawrence, Kansas

Apache Guerrilla: Geronimo Bedonkohe Apache leader of the Chiricahua Apache, led his people's defense of their homeland against the U.S. military after the death of Cochise. In 1886 Geronimo and a small band “brokeout.” 5,000 white soldiers and 500 Indian auxiliaries were employed at various times in the capture of the Apaches. Five months and 1,645 miles later, Geronimo was tracked to his camp in Mexico's Sonora mountains.

Communist Guerrilla: Mao Led Long March Fought Kuomintang and the Japanese Saw ‘People’s War’ progressing to conventional war Leading guerilla war theorist

Communist Guerrilla: Tito Fought Nazi takeover of Yugoslavia Became dictator

Communist Guerrilla: Che Guevera Home-schooled, read Marx, Engels, Freud Argentine physician, worked in leper colony Second in command when Castro deposed Batista

Communist Guerrilla: Che Guevera Urged Castro towards Communism Broke with Castro, Soviets, moves towards Maoism and anarchism Killed in failed guerrilla war in Bolivia "It is better to die standing than to live on your knees."

Communist Guerrilla: Carlos Fonscea Legendary Sandinista National Liberation Front of Nicaragua (FSLN) leader Ideological leader of the Sandinistas Killed by Nicaraguan National Guard in 1976 Matidle Zimmermann wrote biography

Communist Guerrillas: Ho and Giap Fought Japanese in World War II Defeated the French at Dienbienphu in 1954 Fought against South Vietnam and the US

British Guerrilla: T. E. Lawrence Lawrence of Arabia: In 1916, along with Faisal al Husayn led Arabs against Turks Documented adventures in Seven Pillars of Wisdom Spent much of life arguing for Arab independence

Mexican Guerrillas: Zapatistas January 1994 seized several towns in Chiapas Subcommandante Marcos is the main spokesman Anti-capitalist, supports equal rights for Indians

Reign of Terror French Revolution: Origin of the term “terrorist.”

Jewish Terrorists: Zealots They believed that they served God by killing God’s enemies Assassinated Jews who collaborated with the Romans Simon the Zealot and Judas Iscariot may have been Zealots. Destroyed by Roman 10 th Legion in 66 AD at Masada

American Terrorist: John Brown Pottawatomie Creek Harpers Ferry

American Terrorists: Klu Klux Klan Racist-protestant group established in southern US after the Civil War Undergone many changes throughout its history Still active in US

American Terrorist: Timothy McVeigh Gulf War veteran Oklahoma City Bombing

American Terrorist: John Allen Muhammad Gulf War Veteran With John Lee Malvo killed 10 and wounded 3 in DC area sniper case

American Terrorist: Ted Kaczynski Former Berkeley professor Wrote Industrial Society And Its Future

Palestinian Terrorists: Hamas Arose during Intifada of 1987 Has conducted suicide bombings against Israel Strongly opposes Yasir Arafat

Peruvian Terrorists: Shining Path Peruvian communist group founded in 1970 Turned to terrorism in the 1980s Led to deaths of approximately persons Once several thousand strong now greatly weakened

Italian Terrorists: Red Brigades Formed in 1969 to break Italy from western alliance Assassinated Prime Minister Aldo Moro in 1978 Kidnapped US Army General Dozier in 1981 Now fewer than 50 members

American Terrorist: Lee Harvey Oswald

JFK in Berlin Rudolph Wilde Platz June 26, 1963

Kennedy Treason Poster

Arlington Cemetery Gawking at the procession Dreams unfulfilled, a lack of closure

Organizations: Definitions State-A organizational unit or group of allied units that maintain a military force capable of fighting conventional battles. Guerilla-A permanent or semi-permanent military organization that is not sufficiently strong to confront the military of a state in a conventional battle. Terrorist-A relatively small organization that is not sufficiently strong to maintain an identifiable group for an extended time.

Organizational Goals States: To 1) protect against threats from outside the system (e.g., terrorists, guerillas, other states), 2) protect against threats from within the system (e.g., other politicians, rival groups, dissidents, unfavorable press, etc.) and 3) dispense resources among the supporters of the government. Guerillas-To become a state Terrorists-To become a guerilla organization

Research Model: Predictors of Organizational Success Correlate Correlate n = Goal (success, failure) For instance, Strong Ideology Attack State Symbols = Goal

Components of Our Analysis Organizations: States, guerillas, terrorists Citizens: Opponents and supporters of the state Infrastructure and Resources: Food, transportation, airports, etc. Communication Network: Television, radio, internet, word of mouth

Principles Guiding Our Analysis No moral assessment is implied in labeling a group a terrorist, guerilla or state organization. These groups are simply mechanisms for gaining social influence Terrorist, guerilla and state organizations have existed and will exist throughout history Terrorist, guerilla and state organizations have different goals and employ different strategies Larger organizations use strategies of smaller organizations but smaller organizations are rarely capable of using strategies of larger organizations

Terrorism: Opponents of the State 1.It is hypothesized that successful terrorists gain converts from those already opposed to the state by e spousing a well-defined ideology.

Terrorists: Opponents of the State 2. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists gain converts from those already opposed to the state by attacking symbols of the state.

Terrorists: Opponents of the State 3. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists gain converts from those already opposed to the state by playing the ‘Elephant Gun and Fly’ game.

Terrorists: Opponents of the State a.Curtailing liberties and establishing “protections.” b.Encouraging the view that the terrorists threaten the state’s existence. c.Inviting the state to “wallow in the mud” and engage in barbaric reprisals. d.Depriving the state of the moral high ground. 4. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists gain converts from those already opposed to the state by producing an aggressive response by the state.

Terrorists: Supporters of the State 1. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists use the supporters of the state as tools for gaining the attention of the opponents of the state.

Terrorists: Supporters of the State 2. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists make few attempts to gain the hearts and minds of those supporting the state. 3. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists create general anxiety; they make supporters see a terrorist under every bed.

Terrorists: Communication Networks 1. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists use state networks to broadcast their attacks and spread their ideology.

Terrorists: Communication Networks 2. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists maintain a loose network where every terrorist knows just enough to do his or her job.

Terrorists: Resources and Infrastructure 1. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists employ the state’s resources and infrastructure as targets, as a means of gaining attention.

Terrorists: Resources and Infrastructure 2. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists use attacks to gain attention and avoid efforts to destroy state. 3. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists draw significant attention to themselves despite their small numbers and limited resources.

Terrorists: Resources and Infrastructure 4. It is hypothesized that successful terrorists establish a financial support network to obtain weapons and to support members under cover.

Terrorism: A Few Concluding Thoughts (1) 1.Terrorism is a strategy for the weak attacking the strong. Exclusive reliance on terror as a tactic means that the state is confronting a small and weak organization. 2.Many states have been weakened by an over reaction to terrorism. 3.No state has ever been destroyed by a terrorist organization.

Terrorism: A Few Concluding Thoughts (2) 4. Organizations that rely exclusively on terrorism are not a threat to the survival of the state. They are a confined nightmare. 5. Terrorist organizations will be defeated if they cannot develop into a guerilla organizations.