Introduction to CEEH Eigil Kaas, Niels Bohr Institutet Københavns Universitet.

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Presentation transcript:

Introduction to CEEH Eigil Kaas, Niels Bohr Institutet Københavns Universitet

Interdisciplinary effort CEEH is a collaboration between seven Danish institutions working within the subject areas of Meteorology and air pollution (UoC, DMI, DMU/AU) Toxicology (AU, DMU) Epidemiology (NIPH/SDU, AU) Public health economy (CAST/SDU) Energy and system analysis (RISØ, DMU/AU, DMI) CEEH is financed by the Danish Council for Strategic Research and runs over 5 years beginning in January 2007.

Output A chain of different models will be used to obtain economically optimize energy systems in Denmark for a number of different “scenarios” and at different time horizons: 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and In CEEH we have particular focus on “externality costs” i.e. indirect environmental and health costs associated with a given setup of the Danish energy system. The final product will – for each scenario – be detailed suggestions for optimal Danish energy systems. Common language: Money and cost minimization

Inputs Main input: Scenarios and energy/economic models spanning the 3-dimensional space of Technological development Economic growth Global energy prizes Additional inputs: State of the art energy technology catalogue Population and health data, local demography (including future assumptions) IPCC scenario for global/hemispheric particle emissions according to scenario A1B. Global/hemispheric/regional weather evolution in year Global “climate cost” of one kilogram of CO2 emission. IPCC scenario for physical climate changes according to scenario A1B.

Air polution modelling transport, chemistry, deposition Emissions global, regional, local Population and health data Meteorology / Climate (reference year: 2000) Effects on Health exposure and mortality Externality cost functions Energy system optimization model(s) Environmenal effects Global externalities e.g. CO 2 climate cost Future scenarios for the Nordic energy systems 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 (energy-production, consumption, emissions, net costs) Optimised local and regional energy systems different sectors Global emission data Technologies in different sectors Regional and local scenarios and models for economic growth and energy prices CEEH model chain