1. Atmospheric pollution models Air Pollution Modelling Description Results Population Exposure Modelling 1. Workshop d. 6/2-7/2-2008 A.Gross, A. Baklanov, U. S. Korsholm, J. H. Sørensen, A. Mahura & A. Rasmussen Contents:

2. Air pollution, transport and deposition Emission modelling Population Meteorology / climate Ref.-year: 2000 Health effects. Externality cost functions Energy system optimisation model(s) Environmental impact and damage Global externality cost for CO 2 Scenarios for energy production 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 Energy systems Economic growth Tech- nologies EMEP, EDGAR, IPCC, etc. CEEH modelling framework: Model Components

3. Thresholds of Air Pollutants. Threshold Av. per.Effects on humans O 3 Population information Population warning 180 μg/m 3 1 h./max. 240 μg/m 3 1 h./max. 3 h. Reduced lung function, chest pain, breathing problems, headache, eye irritations. SO 2 Population information 350 μg/m 3 1 h./24 times 125 μg/m 3 24 h. 350 μg/m 3 1 h./max. Reduced lung function, breathing problems, increased mortality. NO 2 Population information350 μg/m 3 1 h./max. Reduced lung function and difficulty in breathing. Increased possibility of infections. CO10 mg/m 3 8 hoursTaken up in the blood, i.e. reduces the bloods transport of oxygen. Particular Matter: PM1050 μg/m 3 24 hs/35 times 40 μg/m 3 yearly Respiratory tract and cardiovascular diseases. Benzene5 μg/m 3 yearlyCarcinogenic. Pb0.5 μg/m 3 yearly/max.Damage the nerves. Red from the Danish Smog and ozoneberedskabet Green from EU

4. Atmospheric Chemical Aerosol Transport

5. Air Quality Modeling Framework Air Quality Monitoring Data Chemical Initial Conditions Lateral and Top Boundary Conditions Meteorological Observations Air Quality Forecast Time Resolved 3-Dimensional Fields of Air Pollutants and 2-Dimensional Deposition Patterns Air Quality Model or Subroutine Meteorological Forecast Model Meteorological Parameters Fields of Winds, Temperatures, Humidity and others Transport 3-D advection vertical diffusion Cloud Effects Aqueous chemistry wet scavenging vertical redistribution Modules in Air Quality Model Dry Deposition Loss to surfaces by non-precipitation processes Gas-Phase Chemistry Integration of chemical rate equations for VOC, NOx, SO2 and ozone Emissions Determines emissions of VOC, NOx, SO2 and CO

6. NO x and VOC Dependence

7. Three Air Pollution Model Types Approaches: Normal distribution, Bin approach Physics: Condensation Evaporation Emission Nucleation Deposition Coagulation Aerosol Module 1.Gas Phase 2.Aqueous phase 3.Chemical equil. 4.Climate Modeling Chemical Solvers ECMWF DMI-HIRLAM Eulerian trans- port 0.2-0.05 lat-lon, 25-40 vert. layer, 3-D regional scale Stochastic Lagrangian transport, 3-D regional scale On-Line Chemical Aerosol Trans. EnviroHIRLAM Off-Line Chemical Aerosol Trans. CAC Emergency Pre- parednes & Risk Assess- ment. DERMA Nuclear, veterinary and chemical. Regional (European) to city scale air pollution: smog and ozone. Tropo. Trans. Models Met. Models

8. Off-Line modelling with CAC T:0.15º×0.15º S: 0.05º×0.05º CAC Model Area Currently nested versions of HIRLAM 60 vertical layers: T – 15x15 km 2. S – 5x5 km 2. Q – 5x5 km 2. U – 1.5x1.5 km 2 of DK. A forecast integration starts out by assimilation of meteorological observations whereby a 3-d state of the atmosphere is produced, which as well as possible is in accordance with the observations. CAC 20x20 km 2

9. 24 hour forecast 48 hour forecast 0 15 30 60 90 120 150 ppbV CAC forecast, December 20, 2007 O 3, NO, NO 2, CO, SO 2, Rn, Pb, PM2.5, PM10. OzoneNO 2 X 1000

10. CAC Air Quality Modelling

11. Ozone Modelling from August 8 to 12, 2003 Jægersborg Ulborg Keldsnor Lille Valby X: CAC forecasts X: observations

12. Cloud Condensation Nuclei Precipitation Chemistry/ Aerosols On-line air-quality modelling Cloud- radiation Interaction & Radiation budgets Temperature profiles Chemistry/ Aerosols I.e. models which includes feedbacks of chemistry and aerosol on NWP At present only two meso-scale models with feedbacks exists (indirects effects of aerosols) WRFChem (developed by NCAR) EnviroHIRLAM (developed by DMI)

13. Accumulated (reference) dry deposition [μg/m 2 ] +48 h Difference (ref – perturbation) in Accumulated dry deposition [ng/m 2 ] More details – Ulrik Korsholms presentation tomorrow

14. Accidental fire in waste deposit Aalborg Portland 23 October 2005 DERMA calculations

15. Population Exposure: Scheme of the suggested improvements of meteorological forecasts (NWP) in urban areas, interfaces to and integration with UAP and PE models

16. FUMAPEX target cities for improved UAQIFS implementation #1 – Oslo, Norway #2 – Turin, Italy #3 – Helsinki, Finland #4 – Valencia/Castellon, Spain #5 – Bologna, Italy #6 – Copenhagen, Denmark Different ways of the UAQIFS implementation: (i)urban air quality forecasting mode, (ii) urban management and planning mode, (iii) public health assessment and exposure prediction mode, (iv) urban emergency preparedness system.

17. Time activity of the population Home locationWorkplaces FUMAPEX: KTL

18. At home Exposure PM2.5 (μg/m 3 ×persons) At other locations Population Exposure: inversion day FUMAPEX: KTL & FMI

19. MODELLING LONG-TERM SHORT-TERM Trajectory Dispersion Dispersion Calculation / Evaluation of Doses, Risks, Vulnerabilities, Consequences, Etc. Indicators based on Trajectory Modelling Indicators based on Dispersion Modelling GIS Integration and Mapping of Modelling Results Probabilistic Fields General Assessment Scheme Databases: Population, Land- use, Urban, Administrative, Social and Political factors, etc. MODELLIN G Probabilisti c Approach Case Study Approach

20. GIS: Doses Individual and Collective Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (Lithuania), Cs-137.

21. 1. Workshop d. 6/2-7/2-2008 Thank you for your attention!