1. CEEH workshop February 2008 The importance of demographic changes Henrik Brønnum-Hansen University of Southern Denmark

2. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen2 University of Southern Denmark CEEH objectives to study the future production of energy in Denmark and consequences of different scenarios with respect to environmental and human health aspects, and to optimize the type of energy production and consumption with respect to environmental and health economics

3. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen3 University of Southern Denmark What we don’t know How climate might change in the future How technology to prevent air pollution will improve in the future Future demands for energy and a lot of other future developments… How future traffic infrastructure change

4. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen4 University of Southern Denmark What do we assume? No climate change in the future (?) No technology improvements as regards prevention of air pollution (?) No change in traffic infrastructure (?)

5. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen5 University of Southern Denmark What do we know? the health damaging effect (e.g. respiratory and cardiovascular diseases) of selected pollutants (from toxicology and epidemiological studies) emission dynamics from power plants demographic changes (growing proportion of older people) Quite a lot about the strong associated between age and health

6. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen6 University of Southern Denmark Health is strong associated with age and the age distribution will change dramatically in the future Why not include something that we do know?

7. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen7 University of Southern Denmark the circulatory system and chronic obstructive lung disease Prevalence and mortality from diseases of by age

8. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen8 University of Southern Denmark

9. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen9 University of Southern Denmark

10. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen10 University of Southern Denmark

11. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen11 University of Southern Denmark

12. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen12 University of Southern Denmark Health effects - analytical frame Climatic conditions Air pollution Energy sources Other factors - Sex - Age - Genetics - Life style - Living conditions Health status - Morbidity - Mortality Health care Resources Industry Society - Infra structure - Social conditions - Demography - Etc. Population Traffic - Environment Demography

13. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen13 University of Southern Denmark Population forecasting from Statistics Denmark Population pyramids Demography

14. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen14 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids Age intervals Number of persons

15. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen15 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

16. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen16 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

17. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen17 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

18. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen18 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

19. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen19 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

20. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen20 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

21. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen21 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

22. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen22 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

23. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen23 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

24. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen24 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

25. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen25 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

26. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen26 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

27. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen27 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

28. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen28 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

29. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen29 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

30. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen30 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

31. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen31 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

32. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen32 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

33. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen33 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

34. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen34 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

35. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen35 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

36. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen36 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

37. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen37 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

38. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen38 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

39. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen39 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

40. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen40 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

41. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen41 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

42. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen42 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

43. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen43 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

44. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen44 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

45. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen45 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

46. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen46 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

47. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen47 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

48. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen48 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

49. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen49 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

50. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen50 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

51. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen51 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

52. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen52 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

53. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen53 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

54. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen54 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

55. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen55 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

56. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen56 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

57. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen57 University of Southern Denmark Change in age distribution Population pyramids

58. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen58 University of Southern Denmark Healthy Diseased Impaired Functional limitations Reduced participation Exposure Age Dead Life course and health Cumulative effect Theing Process

59. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen59 University of Southern Denmark exposure Age Less Healthy Dead Diseased Impaired Functional limitations Reduced participation Dead Diseased Impaired Functional limitations Reduced participation Theing Process Life course and health

60. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen60 University of Southern Denmark Experience from the epidemiology of tobacco smoking

61. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen61 University of Southern Denmark 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 05101520253035 Time/Age Death rate 3 t 1 Lead time: increasing risk t t 3 - t 1 t 42 t 2 Lag time: reduction of excess risk t 4 6 - t = t 5 t 5 t 6 Never smoker Heavy smoker Ex smoker Tobacco smoking Time, dose and effect

62. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen62 University of Southern Denmark Ageing society and a reduced exposure to air pollution scenario Demography and air pollution

63. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen63 University of Southern Denmark -450000-350000-250000-150000-50000 Men 2000 0100000200000300000400000 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100 + Women -450000-350000-250000-150000-50000 Men 2000 0100000200000300000400000 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100 + Women UnexposedExposed and exposure reductionAgeing society

64. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen64 University of Southern Denmark -450000-350000-250000-150000-50000 Men 2010 0100000200000300000400000 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100 + Women UnexposedExposed Ageing society and exposure reduction

65. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen65 University of Southern Denmark -450000 -350000-250000-150000-50000 Men 2020 0100000200000300000400000 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100 + Women UnexposedExposed Ageing society and exposure reduction

66. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen66 University of Southern Denmark -450000-350000-250000-150000-50000 Men 2030 0100000200000300000400000 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100 + Women UnexposedExposed Ageing society and exposure reduction

67. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen67 University of Southern Denmark -450000-350000-250000-150000-50000 Men 2040 0100000200000300000400000 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100 + Women UnexposedExposed Ageing society and exposure reduction

68. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen68 University of Southern Denmark -450000-350000-250000-150000-50000 Men 2050 0100000200000300000400000 0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80-89 90-99 100 + Women UnexposedExposed Ageing society and exposure reduction 2000

69. The importance of demographic changes February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen69 University of Southern Denmark