What is an exposure? What is a disease? How do we measure them? Epidemiology matters: a new introduction to methodological foundations Chapter 3
Seven steps 1.Define the population of interest 2.Conceptualize and create measures of exposures and health indicators 3.Take a sample of the population 4.Estimate measures of association between exposures and health indicators of interest 5.Rigorously evaluate whether the association observed suggests a causal association 6.Assess the evidence for causes working together 7.Assess the extent to which the result matters, is externally valid, to other populations Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 12
1.What is a variable? 2.What are health indicators? 3.What is an exposure? 4.Measuring exposure and disease 5.Summary Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 33
1.What is a variable? 2.What are health indicators? 3.What is an exposure? 4.Measuring exposure and disease 5.Summary Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 34
What is a variable? A variable is any measured characteristic of individuals that differs across individuals Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 35
Variable examples Age Sex Place of birth Occupation Education Ethnicity Cigarette smoking Diet Alcohol consumption Blood pressure Gun ownership Diabetes Pancreatic cancer Depression Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 36
1.What is a variable? 2.What are health indicators? 3.What is an exposure? 4.Measuring exposure and disease 5.Summary Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 37
What are health indicators? Population health is often defined by the absence of the occurrence of disease Health indicators are typically measures of the occurrence of infections, syndromes, symptoms, and biological or subclinical markers Health indicators can be measured over the life course and include measures of, for example, disability associated with adverse health states, potential years of life lost due to an illness Health indicators can also be positive, e.g., well-being Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 38
Defining health indicators 1.Binary 2.Ordinal 3.Continuous Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 39
Binary health indicators Variable that takes on two values Health outcomes: present or absent Examples Individual has diabetes Individual does not have cancer Individual has Alzheimer’s disease Individual does not have HIV Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 310
Ordinal health indicators Variable that takes on multiple (>2) graded values Examples Individual health rating Question: How would you rate your health? Response options: Excellent, Good, Fair, or Poor Symptom frequency Question: How often do you experience night sweats? Response options: Always, Often, Rarely, or Never Ability to perform health-related activity Question: How difficult is it to climb a flight of stairs? Response options: Very difficult, Somewhat difficult, or Not difficult Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 311
Continuous health indicators Variable with continuous response options Examples Age Weeks of pregnancy Diastolic and systolic blood pressure Cholesterol level Viral load Cancer stage Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 312
1.What is a variable? 2.What are health indicators? 3.What is an exposure? 4.Measuring exposure and disease 5.Summary Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 313
Exposure Any measurable variable that affects or is associated with health Variable can be from macro social environment to the molecular level Examples Policies and laws: areas with higher taxes on alcohol have lower alcohol consumption rates Biological sex: Men die, on average, younger than women Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 314
Types of exposures 1.Acute 2.Chronic or stable 3.Time-varying Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 315
Acute exposures Occur for a relatively short duration Do not repeat Examples Natural disasters Motor vehicle accident Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 316
Chronic exposures Stable over time May be present at birth Examples Pollution Poverty Policies and laws Biological sex Race and ethnicity DNA sequence Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 317
Time-varying exposures Vary across the life course of an individual Examples Diet Exercise Smoking Alcohol consumption Epidemiologists capture variation over time with different measures of exposure Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 318
Non-diseased Diseased Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 319
Smoking and exercise Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 320
Smoking and exercise Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 321
Smoking and exercise Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 322
Smoking and exercise Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 323
Smoking and exercise Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 324
Smoking and exercise Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 325
Smoking and exercise Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 326
Smoking and exercise Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 327
Summary: exposure Exposure: wide range of potential variables that individuals are ‘exposed to’ Age Sex Education Water consumption Individual attendance at lecture today Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 328
Summary: exposure Exposure: wide range of potential variables that individuals are ‘exposed to’ Age Sex Education Water consumption Individual attendance at lecture today Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 329 What type of exposures are these?
Summary: exposure Exposure: wide range of potential variables that individuals ‘exposed to’ Age continuous chronic Sex binary chronic Education ordinal chronic Water consumption binary time-varying Individual attendance at lecture today binary acute Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 330
1. Duration of exposure 2. Latency and critical windows Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 331 Characterizing exposures
Exposure duration Duration that individual is exposed matters for production of adverse health for certain exposures Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 332
Exposure duration, examples Smoking Smoking a cigarette is unlikely to have long-term health consequences Smoking > a pack of cigarettes per day for 40 years is likely to have long-term health consequences Trans fat One trans fat and calorie laden meal is unlikely to affect health Years of unhealthy eating is likely to accumulate to adversely impact health Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 333
Exposure timing Timing of the exposure across the life course may also be important for the production of health Core concepts: Latency and critical windows Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 334
Exposure timing, examples Latency Low birth weight associated with the development of chronic diseases in adulthood Critical window Extreme caloric restriction during first trimester of fetal development associated with schizophrenia development in adulthood Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 335
Examples, exposure timing Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 336
Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 337 Examples, exposure timing
Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 338 Examples, exposure timing
Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 339 Examples, exposure timing
Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 340 Examples, exposure timing
1.What is a variable? 2.What are health indicators? 3.What is an exposure? 4.Measuring exposure and disease 5.Summary Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 341
Measuring exposure and disease In previous sections we have conceptualized the exposures and health indicators of interest Now we are interested in measuring these factors Good measurement of variables is critical for epidemiologists Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 342
Measurement example Research question Are individuals who have depression more likely to be overweight than individuals without depression? Measuring depression Constellation of symptoms Condition characterized by disabling feelings of hopelessness, sadness, and loss of interest in activities Measuring overweight Obesity = Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥ 30 Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 343
Measurement 1.Be clear about the construct being measured 2.Assess the reliability of the measures 3.Assess the validity of the measures Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 344
Measurement example, clarity 1.Be clear about the construct being measured Depression: validated scale Obesity: BMI ≥ 30 2.If measurements include respondent answered questions, make sure questions are easily interpretable, short, clear, and precise. Instead of “Are you depressed?” Try “In the past week have you felt happy most of the time?” Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 345
Reliability and validity of measures Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 346
Reliability and validity of measures Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 347 Not valid or reliable Valid and reliable Reliable not valid
Reliability and validity of measures Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 348 Not valid or reliable Scale does not work Valid and reliable Scale works perfectly Reliable not valid Scale consistently weighs people 5 pounds more than they weight
Dimensions of reliability Test-retest reliability: Would the respondent answer the question similarly if asked at ≥ 2 time points? Internal consistency: Are all the items used to assess the construct indicative of that construct? Inter-rater reliability: Would ≥ 2 independent raters all rate the response the same? Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 349
Measurement validity Questions to consider when assessing validity What is the gold standard? What are the sensitivity and specificity of our measure as compared to the gold standard? Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 350
51 Sensitivity, key question: Among those who have blood cotinine ≥300 ng/mL, what proportion report that they smoke ≥20 cigarettes per day? ≥20 cigarettes per day self-report smokers with ≥300 ng/mL cotinine / all smokers with ≥300 ng/mL cotinine 20/(20+10)=0.67 or 67% Interpretation: 67% of people who actually smoked a pack of cigarettes in the past 24 hours reported that they smoked a pack of cigarettes in the past 24 hours Measurement, sensitivity
52 Specificity, key question: Among those who have blood cotinine <300 ng/mL, what proportion report that they smoke < 20 cigarettes per day? <20 cigarettes per day self-report smokers and <300 ng/mL cotinine / all with <300 ng/mL cotinine 168/(2+168)=0.99 or 99%. Interpretation: 99% of people who actually did not smoke a pack of cigarettes in the past 24 hours reported that they did not smoke a pack of cigarettes in the past 24 hours Measurement, specificity
Summary: sensitivity and specificity Provides an assessment of the validity of our measures Sensitivity: proportion who are accurately identified as positive on the measure Specificity: proportion who are accurately identified as negative on the measure Requires a gold standard Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 353
Measurement, validity Questions to consider when assessing validity What is the gold standard? What are the sensitivity and specificity of our measure as compared to the gold standard? Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 354 What if there is no gold standard?
1.What is a variable? 2.What are health indicators? 3.What is an exposure? 4.Measuring exposure and disease 5.Summary Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 355
In summary Conceptualization and measurement of health in populations is critical to improving population health Health indicators are presence of disease, symptoms, syndromes, disability, wellness, quality of life, and other health-related states Exposures are potential influences on these health- related exposures and can be acute or chronic, long or short in duration, have impact only at a critical point in human development or accumulate 56Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 3
Seven steps 1.Define the population of interest 2.Conceptualize and create measures of exposures and health indicators 3.Take a sample of the population 4.Estimate measures of association between exposures and health indicators of interest 5.Rigorously evaluate whether the association observed suggests a causal association 6.Assess the evidence for causes working together 7.Assess the extent to which the result matters, is externally valid, to other populations Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 157
epidemiologymatters.org 58Epidemiology Matters – Chapter 1