VISTAS Modeling Overview May 25, 2004 Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns. National Park

VISTAS is evaluating visibility and sources of fine particulate mass in the Southeastern US View West from Shining Rock Wilderness Area, NC

VISTAS Air Quality Modeling Objectives: Accurately represent meteorology, emissions, and air quality wMM5, SMOKE, CMAQ Model base year to support both regional haze and PM 2.5 regulatory requirements Model future year and control strategies for regional haze w states responsible for PM 2.5 attainment demonstrations

VISTAS Air Quality Modeling Phase I: Evaluate different model configurations for 3 episodes: Jan 02, July 99, July 01 wRecommend annual modeling protocol Mar 04 Phase II: Annual regional modeling w2002 base year modeling begins Feb 04 wFuture year control strategy runs completed 2005 w2009 interim year w2018 w2003 episodes: wevaluate model performance using continuous speciated data from VISTAS Focus sites (Smokies, Cape Romain, Raleigh)

Jan 2004 Revised 2002 VISTAS Em Inv Feb-Apr 2004 MM5 Met runs Apr 2004 Draft 2018 National Inv Sep 2004 Revised 2002 National Inv Apr-Sep 2004 Annual 2002 CMAQ model performance Dec Base Run Apr 2004: DDM in CMAQ May-Oct Emissions Sensitivity Runs Sep 2004 “Typical” 2002 Modeling Inv Oct-Dec 2004: Control Strategies and Inventories Jan - Jun episodes: em inv, met, aq model Jan-Jun Control Strategy Runs Sep 2004 CART:select episodes July-Dec 2005: Observations Conclusions Recommendations Jan 2005 Interim Future Year Model Runs Dec 2004 Interim Future Year Inventories Emissions, Meteorological, Air Quality Modeling Deliverables State Regulatory Activities Jan-Sep 2004 Define BART sources Sep 2004 Identify BART controls Draft 5/19/04 EPA- approved Modeling Protocol June 2005 Economic Analyses Mar 2004 Em Modeling QA + Fill Gaps Jan 2004 Met modeling protocol Mar 2004 AQ modeling protocol Mar 2004 AQ Phase I wrapup Jan-Mar 2004 Define inv growth and control assumptions Dec 2004 Revised 2002 Base Run (model performance) Oct 2004: Revised 2018 Em Inv Sept 2004 MM5 Met Final Report Dec 2004 “Typical” 2002 Run (compare to 2018 runs) Aug 2004 / Dec 2005 Draft / Final Natural Background and Reasonable Progress Goals

Emissions Inventories Objective: –Define emissions for PM2.5 and regional haze modeling Responsibility: Stella, MACTEC, Pechan Deliverables: st draft inventory – Aug nd draft inventory – Jan st draft inventory – Apr 2004 –2002 revised (3 rd draft) inventory – Sep 2004 –2002 revised plus “typical” EGU and fires – Sep 2004 –2018 revised plus BART and “typical” EGU and fires – Oct 2004 –2009 draft inventory – Oct 2004

Meteorological Modeling Objective: –Accurately represent meteorological conditions for atmospheric modeling using MM5 model Responsibilities: Baron Applied Meteorological Systems Deliverables: Evaluate meteorological model for 3 episodes – Dec 2003 Recommend met modeling protocol for 2002 – Dec 2004 Deliver met runs for 2002 – Mar 2004 –Deliver met runs for selected 2003 episodes – fall 2004 –Reporting and data transfer - ongoing

Emissions Modeling Objective: –Prepare inventories for atmospheric modeling using SMOKE model, including temporal and spatial allocation Responsibilities: Alpine Geophysics Deliverables: Emissions for 3 Phase I modeling episodes – Sep emissions for VISTAS states, US, Canada, Mexico – Mar 04 –2002 revised and “typical” emissions – Oct initial and revised emissions – Apr and Nov 04 –2009 emissions – Dec 04

Air Quality Modeling Objectives: –Accurately represent air quality using CMAQ model –Evaluate benefits from emissions controls Responsibilities: ENVIRON, University California Riverside, Alpine Geophysics Deliverables: Evaluate model configuration for 3 episodes – Feb 04 Recommend model protocol for annual 2002 run – Mar 04 –Model 2002 using initial, revised, and revised plus typical EGU and fire emissions – Apr to Nov 04 –Model 2009 and 2018 with typical emissions – Dec 04 –Model control strategies – Jan to Jun 05

Emissions Sensitivity Modeling Objective: –Evaluate air quality responses to modeled changes in emissions to inform emissions strategy design Responsibilities: Georgia Tech Deliverables: Demonstrate Decoupled Direct Method for aerosols (DDM- AERO) in CMAQ – Apr 04 Time savings offset by added memory requirement, not continued –Evaluate emissions changes using Jul 01 and Jan 02 episodes and 2018 inventory by source sector, geographic area – Oct 04

Characterizing Meteorology Objective: –Characterize relationship between meteorology, PM2.5, visibility, for IMPROVE and STN sites, using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analyses –Recommend episodes in 2002 or 2003 for focused modeling analyses Responsibility: Systems Application International Deliverables: Initial CART analyses for IMPROVE sites – Apr 04 –Initial CART analyses for STN sites – Jun 04 –Recommend options for episodes – Aug 04

CMAQ Model Configuration CMAQ Version 4.3 (August 2003) Horizontal Advection and Vertical Advection wPiecewise Parabolic Method (PPM) Gas-Phase Chemistry: CB-IV with MEBI/Hertel Solver Aerosol Chemistry: AE3 / ISORROPIA / SORGAM Aqueous-Phase Chemistry: RADM Dry Deposition: Pleim-Xiu MM5 Configuration: wPleim-Xiu/ACM Soil/PBL models with MCIP2.2 Pass Through 36 km national grid, 12 km VISTAS domain (eastern US)

VISTAS 36-km and 12-km CMAQ Modeling Domains

CMAQ Phase I Sensitivity Tests Vertical Layers: 19 vs 34 layers Boundary Conditions: Ultra Clean, GEOS-CHEM Ammonia Emissions: Jan 50% reduction, diurnal pattern Vertical Diffusivity - Minimum Kz: 0.1 or 1.0 m 2 /s Alternative meteorology - with Wesley Dry Deposition Mass Conservation Patch SAPRC-99 chemistry CB-2002 chemistry CB-AIMS chemistry with sectional approach CAM-x trial with comparable configuration Best and Final CMAQ configuration

CMAQ Configuration: Annual Modeling Lambert Comformal –36 km origin (-2736, -2088) –12 km origin (108, -1620) –1-way nesting Vertical Diffusivity: Minimum Kz: 1.0 m 2 /s Boundary Conditions: –2001 GEOS-CHEM seasonal averages initially –replace fall 2004 with 2002 GEOS-CHEM 3 hr ave

CMAQ Configuration: Annual Modeling Emissions used in Apr 04: –VISTAS states: 2002 state inventories Fires from state and federal records Fires modeled as point sources where sufficient data –Non-VISTAS states: NEI 2002 (Apr 04 release) –Canada and Mexico as available –Ammonia from CMU (Jan 04 version) with updates –Biogenics with BEIS3 –Temporal profiles from SMOKE except: Point sources: CEM hourly profiles MOBILE and NONROAD: 1 week/month

Performance Evaluation IMPROVE – daily STN – daily 1 in 3 or 1 in6 SEARCH – daily and hourly CASTNET – weekly NADP – weekly AQS – hourly

2004 Modeling Workplan Tasks 1. Project Management 2. IC/BC analysis: GEOS-CHEM 3. Data Management a. Air Quality Gatekeeper b. Meteorological Gatekeeper c. Emissions Gatekeeper d. Emissions Modeling: 2002, 2018 for annual modeling e. Emissions Modeling: 2018 for emissions sensitivity f. Emissions Modeling: 2009

2004 Modeling Workplan Tasks 4. CMAQ Modeling a Initial Inventory b Revised Inventory c revised plus “typical” Fire and EGU d “typical” e “typical” episodes 6. Website, Data Transfer, Storage, Retrieval

2004 Modeling Workplan Tasks 7.Evaluate CB-IV vs SAPRC for responses to emissions changes 10.Journal publication Phase I GEOS-CHEM outputs prepared for CMAQ IC/BC inputs 15.Contingency

Optional Tasks Extended Performance Evaluation Emissions Sensitivities Source Apportionment/Tracers Natural Background Analysis Comparison of Alternate Models 2005 workplan focus: modeling control strategies 2004 Modeling Workplan Tasks