1. Preliminary Study: Direct and Emission-Induced Effects of Global Climate Change on Regional Ozone and Fine Particulate Matter K. Manomaiphiboon 1 *, A. G. Russell 1, S. He 2, M. T. Odman 1, S.-K. Park 1, Y. Hu 1, D. S. Cohan 3 1: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology; 2: NESCAUM; 3: School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology October 2004

2. Contents Introduction and Objectives Method Results Summary

3. Introduction and Objectives Source: www.ipcc..ch

4. Cont. Forward: Climate change induced by emissions, land use modifications, and other human activities Inverse: Of recent interest is how climate change might potentially impact regional air quality, e.g. 45-50 years from now. In addition, how climate change might affect control strategies of emissions. Focus: Temperature increase Ozone (O3) Fine Particulate Matter (here, ASO4 = ASO4I + ASO4J)

5. Method Preliminary study: Climate change due to an uniform increase in temperature Off-line perturbation: Meteorology: +3 K in mean temperature Emissions: Run SMOKE using perturbed meteorology 3 Cases: 1) Base case 2) Direct case: Perturbed Meteorology & Base Emissions 3) Emission-Induced (i.e. indirect) case: Perturbed Meteorology & Perturbed Emissions Sensitivity to emissions by brute-force method

6. DescriptionCMAQMM5 Horizontal Grid Size36 km, Lambert Conic Dimension147 x 111164 x 128 Coordinate of Origin(-2,628, -1,980 km)(-2,952, -2,304 km) No. Vertical Layers925 Top Pressure100 hPa Domain of Interest 5-Day Episode of July 01-05, 2001 MCIP

7. Specifications of Models-3 System MM5: Simple ice microphysics Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme Rapid radiative transfer model Pleim-Chang PBL Pleim-Xiu land surface model FDDA: Model outputs & Observational data Evaluation: Surface hourly data SMOKE: 1999 U.S. emissions inventory EGAS V4.0 w/ existing control strategy in converting 1999 emissions to 2001 emissions CMAQ: Chemical mechanism: SAPRC-99 Chemistry solver: Modified Euler backward iterative (MEBI) method Cloud: Regional acid deposition model (RADM) Aerosol dynamics: AERO3 Deposition velocities of aerosols: AERO_DEPV2 Horizontal and vertical advection: Piecewise parabolic method (PPM) Minimum vertical eddy coefficient: 0.3 m 2 /sec

8. Perturbed Temperature Field Base-Case Temp. (K) +3 K

9. Results: Emissions Induced by Temp. Increase Biogenic VOC Change (%)Base, Biogenic VOC Base, Mobile NOxMobile NOx Change (%)

10. O3 Level Base Direct, Change (%) Emission-Ind., Change (%)

11. ASO4 Level Base Direct, Abs. Change Emission-Ind., Abs. Change

12. Time Series of O3: Atlanta

13. Time Series of ASO4: Atlanta

14. Sensitivity of O3 to NOx Base Direct Emission-Induced

15. Sensitivity of O3 to VOC Base Direct Emission-Induced

16. Summary Effects of climate change due to an temperature increase studied Various emissions: Sensitive to temperature Change (from base case) in O3 and ASO4 levels in both direct and emission- induced cases: Fair to significant Sensitivities of O3 to NOx and VOC in all the three cases: Different but similar in both spatial pattern and magnitude Implication: Current emissions controls still robust and applicable for the future Future work: Use downscaled meteorological inputs from a global climate model to drive future scenarios Incorporate emissions from Canada and Mexico in modeling Use DDM (Direct Decoupled Method) for sensitivity calculation Consider more gaseous and aerosol species

17. Acknowledgements U.S. EPA for financial support Sergey & Air Quality Group at CEE, GaTech, for assistance

18. Thank You