Youth Unemployment and Large-scale Land Deals in Tanzania: What Role do Indigenous Institutions and Capacity Play? Evans Osabuohien Uchenna Efobi Ciliaka Gitau Paper prepared for presentation at the “2015 World Bank Conference on Land and Poverty” The World Bank - Washington DC, March 23-27, 2015

Outline Introduction Why Tanzania? Main issues Analytical Framework Data Methods of Analysis Results & Discussions Conclusion/Next lines of action

Introduction Issues on youth unemployment in Africa  > 60% younger than 25years  unemployed youth in total unemployment is 40% in SSA Large-scale land deals (LLDs) in Africa > 60% of global LLDs are in Africa Arguments on the LLDs implications

Why Tanzania? Covered by LSMS_ISA Agriculture employs >70% of labour force Tanzania is among top 20 global LLDs destinations Among top 10 in Africa One of world’s fast growing population

Top 10 Destinations of Large-Scale Land Deals in Africa

Main Issues Key Research questions 1.How do LLDs influence youth (un)employment (YU) of HHs in communities? 2. How does YU in communities with LLDs differ from those without LLDs? 3.How do indigenous institutions interact with LLDs occurrence to influence YU? 4.In what ways do local capacity influence YU given LLDs occurrence?

Conceptual Framework

Data Living Standard Measurement Survey – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS – ISA). LSMS–ISA: on individuals, HHs, communities & agric activities Conducted 2008/09, 2010/11 and 2012/13 > 3000 households. About individuals 2 nd wave (2010/11) was utilised. Info on communities with LLDs from Land Matrix Global Observatory data.

Some Definitions ILO: individuals within 15-24years. youth ‘employment’: individuals within 15-24years engaged in an economic activity with incentive in the form of economic values. The direct opposite is ‘youth unemployment’-YU [Hilson and Osei, 2014]

Model We build on Asiedu (2004); Asiedu et al (2011); Osabuohien (2014). Our empirical model as:

Table 4: Summary Statistics of Selected Variables

Some Regression Results

Table 6: Baseline Regression & Indigenous Institutions

Table 8: Baseline Regression & Local capacity

Some Robustness checks Only Rural areas (Table 9) the signs of the variables remained consistent. Regression using Tobit Technique (Table 10) suitable for estimating models with truncated explained variable. explained variable is between two alternatives: worked for pay (right censored) or not (left censored). Results remained consistent.

Summary of Main Findings 1. NSAs; community tribunals, the social stability; education of community leaders, are important factors that can enhance the LLDs effect on youth employment. 2. Implication: strengthening & ensuring functional NSAs social stability & security be encouraged leadership capacity in the host community be enhanced

Conclusion & Next Lines of Action Future research to complement: Using the framework of impact evaluation to have a deeper/comparative influence of LLDs on employment. In other African countries having the occurrence of LLDs. Field work to support

Thanks Danke Merci