1. DPG Meeting National Panel Survey (NPS) 2008/09 – 2010/11 December 4, 2012

2. Overview Introduction and Objectives Selected Results: Poverty and Inequality Trends Observed in the National Panel Survey (NPS) Household Budget Survey (HBS) and/or NPS Conclusion / Way Forward

3. Introduction NPS is a Panel or longitudinal survey designed to collect data about individuals, households and communities over time from the same sampling units, in order to assess change. NPS Sample is made to allow estimates at National level, Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam, Other Urban and Rural areas. Main Objectives of the NPS are to: monitor progress on a range of MKUKUTA indicators, improve understanding of poverty dynamics, and evaluate the impact of major development initiatives. Wave 1 of the NPS was fielded between October 2008 and October 2009. Wave 2 was conducted between October 2010 and September 2011. In the 2 nd wave, same households were re-visited, plus all split-off households within the cluster and distance movers.

4. Sample Size (Evolution of Sample Size) NPS1Attrited TrackedNPS2 (A)=(B)+(C) (B) (C) Tanzania3,265 99 3,166 3846 Dar es Salaam 555 38 517614 Other Urban 480 18 462586 Rural1,751 31 1,7202121 Zanzibar 479 12 467543

5. Poverty and Inequality in NPS Two Main indicators: Gini coefficient (measuring inequality) Basic needs poverty rate

6. Inequality Did NOT Change NPS 1 2008/2009 NPS 2 2010/2011 Tanzania0.360.37 Rural0.31 Urban0.37 Tanzania Mainland0.360.37 Zanzibar0.320.31 Gini Coefficient

7. Lorenz Curve of Consumption

8. Poverty Also Did NOT Change Poverty incidence in the NPS2 is higher than in the NPS1.

9. Poverty Dynamics – Poverty Movements Occurred Mostly in Rural Areas Percentage of population: Move out of Poverty Move into Poverty Mainland712 Dsm12 Other urban54 Rural areas815 Zanzibar134 None of the changes over time in this table are statistically significant. Meaning that poverty has not significantly changed between 2008/09 and 2010/11.

10. NPS and HBS Reinforce Each Other HBS is a low frequency survey conducted every 5 years offering an opportunity to generate new official poverty and CPI numbers using a large sample. NPS a more frequent survey is a tool to monitor poverty and inequality trends in shorter-term. As a panel it provides opportunity to understand observed changes and better inform policy. NPS provides the material for policy-relevant analysis.

11. Conclusion / Way Forward NBS has published the NPS Year 2 report since October 2012 Micro data from wave 1 and 2 now available to the public (since October 2012) Make use of the available data from Wave I and 2 Preparations for procuring Institutions to undertake analytical work is at advanced stage About 11 papers to be prepared on the following topics Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth ( 5 papers) Social Development (4 papers) Governance (2 papers)

12. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION