Strategic Opportunities Charting a New Approach to Security Assessment in the Americas by Ivelaw L. Griffith Florida International University ~~~~~ Strategic Opportunities Miami~March 9-11, 2005

Restart, Ponder, Be Puzzled “We need to start afresh, to relax in our gardens, emulate [Isaac] Newton and ponder the scene around us, allowing ourselves to be puzzled by those recurring patterns that seem self-evident but that somehow have never been adequately explained.” ~~ James Rosenau, The Scientific Study of Foreign Policy (1980)

Framework Design Discrete Multidimensional Security Framework Three Building Blocks (BB) BB I: Elements of Structure BB II: Core Concepts BB III: Framework Elements The Framework

BB I—Structure Anarchy & Interdependence Small Size Vulnerability Weakness & Subordination Combined effects of SS, V, W & S undermine ability of Caribbean states to exercise agency vis-à-vis rest of world and often the region

BB II—Core Concepts Many concepts, differing meanings Definitional baselines needed “Security” “Threats”

“Security” “Protection and preservation of a people’s freedom from external military attack and coercion, from internal subversion, and from the erosion of cherished political, economic, and social values.” – Ivelaw L. Griffith (1993) Values include Democratic choice and political stability in the political area Sustainable development and free enterprise in the economic domain Social equality and respect for human rights in the social arena

“Threat” “An action or sequence of events that (i) threatens drastically and over a relatively brief span of time to degrade the quality of life for the inhabitants of a state, or (ii) threatens significantly to narrow the range of policy choices available to the government of a state or to private non- governmental entities (persons, groups, corporations) within the state.” – Richard H. Ullman, “Redefining Security” in International Security (1983)

BB III—Elements Categories & Dimensions Threat Type, Intensity, & Arena Threat Arena, Threats, and Response Instruments Instruments, Actors, and Security Engagement Zones

Traditional Issues Military Political Economic Non-Traditional Issues Military Political Economic Environmental Categories Dimensions Figure 1 - Categories & Dimensions

Medium Low PeripheralExternal Internal High Core Threat Type Threat IntensityThreat Arena Figure 2 - Threat Type, Intensity, and Arena

Poverty Political Instability Drugs Crime HIV/AIDS Border & Territorial Disputes Hurricanes Internal External E, P P, E M, P, LE M, LE, P P,E Terrorism M, P, LE, E M, D, P EM, M, E KEY: E = EconomicLE = Law Enforcement P = PoliticalD = Diplomatic M = MilitaryEM = Emergency Management Figure 3 - Threat Arenas, Threats, and Response Instruments

Instruments Diplomatic Economic Emergency Management Law Enforcement Military Political Actors National: Individuals NGOs Corporations International: States IGOs INGOs MNCs Security Engagement Zones XY National Bilateral Multilateral Sub-region Region Hemisphere International System International Figure 4 Instruments, Actors, and Security Engagement Zones

Figure 5- Discrete Multidimensional Security Framework

Purpose & Application To provide conceptual architecture for explanation and interpretation of security structures, patterns, and dynamics, especially in relation to threats, actors, and responses Heuristic device—not intended to explain each and every component of security scenario (An heuristic device is a method or technique intended to help discover something or explain a phenomenon; something that serves as guide in experiment or inquiry. Greek in origin; comes from heuriskein, to find; same root as eureka.) Could be applied empirically to different units of analysis: single state, sub-region, region.

Caribbean and Beyond Framework for security analysis of the Caribbean, but not only for the Caribbean Intended to be dynamic, not static Application elsewhere will reveal different configurations of threats, response instruments, actors, etc. Same region, different time will reveal different configuration of threats, salience of threats, responses, actors, etc.

Within Region ≠ of Region Challenges within a region not always same as challenges of a region Regional security is relational Issue of salience: function of threat type & intensity & influenced by 3 factors Number of states affected Definition of situation by relevant elites Amount of resources invested by state (& non state) actors

Ask, Revise, Collect “ The scholar must have the flexibility of mind to overturn old ways of looking at the world, to ask new questions, to revise designs appropriately, and then to collect data of a different type than originally intended.” ~~ Gary King, Robert Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry (1994)

Further Information This framework is outlined in  Ivelaw L. Griffith, “Understanding Caribbean Security: Back to Basics and Building Blocks," Social and Economic Studies, Vol. 53, No. (March) 2004, This framework is outlined & applied in  Chapter 1 of Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith, editor, Caribbean Security in the Age of Terror: Challenge and Change. Kingston, Jamaica: Ian Randle Publishers, 2004.