PRESCRIBED SUBJECT Route 2: Prescribed Subject 3: Communism in Crisis The Fall of Communism: The USSR and Eastern Europe Area #1 –Domestic and Foreign Problems of the Brezhnev Era: Economic and Political Stagnation; Afghanistan

Problems Inherited by Brezhnev Khrushchev Legacy –Seizes power from Malenkov/Bulganin after brief power struggle –Still repressive state but… Fewer imprisoned Less violence and few killed –Begins De-Stalinization Secret Speech –CPSU, February 25, 1956 –Khrushchev shocked his listeners by denouncing Stalin's dictatorial rule and cult of personality –also attacked the crimes committed by associates of Lavrentiy Beria. end to the role of large-scale forced labor Freeing Gulag prisoners

Problems Inherited by Brezhnev Khrushchev as reformer –Limits to critique of Stalin Collectivization, anti religion (Churches closed) Economic reforms but still a Command Economy –Modest industrial authority to local officials –Virgin Lands scheme »Grow crops on marginal lands like Siberia –Reforms lead to 6% growth –Other reforms Term limits for Bureaucrats (HATE IT!!)

Problems Inherited by Brezhnev Khrushchev as reformer (2) Invests in Space Race –Sputnik is first satellite 1957 –Yuri Gagarin first man in space 1961 Foreign Policy –Secret Speech creates hope for reform in satellite states –The “Thaw” follows with the West Peaceful Coexistence –USSR can compete without violence –Triumph over capitalism by example not force –Fails »Hungarian reforms crushed 1956 »H-Bomb developed and build 1 st ICBM (Missle) »Also Berlin Crisis , Cuba 1962

Brezhnev Domestic Policy Leonid Brezhnev –Khrushchev protégé whon heads Central Committee –Conspires with N. Podgorny, A. Kosygin and M. Suslov to oust Khrushchev 1964 –“B” becomes General Secretary of Party, “P”, head of State, “Ko” gets SOVNARKOM –Not very bright, very vain (awards self 60 medals), is a classic Soviet Bureaucrat –Collective rule as he is a good organizer but not bright –Rules to 1982 as others gradually pushed aside Ill by 1973, not in charge after 1976 (Senile) but kept on as figurehead Leadership is very elderly doesn’t want power struggle

Brezhnev Domestic Policy Leonid Brezhnev Reverses Khrushchev reforms –Term limits abolished –Central Planning resumes –Kosygin tries to a modest reform by using sales and profits not quotas for production targets –Proposes local control and computers and automation to expand –Tech. trade as well –Brezhnev undermines reforms Conservative by nature and won’t abandon price and wage controls Reforms can’t work if this stays in place

Brezhnev Problems Problems –“Partocracy” Ensures political stability and Party power/privileges at all costs Party grows 20% –Harder to discipline/more diverse 1977 Constitution reaffirms Party dominance –Socialism now mature (implies no changes) –Gerontocracy Focus on “stability of cadres Stay in office til death so CPSU ages (average age P-buro rises 55 to 68 from ) Central Committee only 44% turnover same period

Brezhnev Problems Problems (con’t) –Corruption 750,000 Party and State officials and managers (Nomenklatura) Great security of position, privileges and perks –Special stores, medical, housing, income –Ex. Brezhnev has luxury Limos –Key function seems to be to preserve their status not to promote communism –Most don’t work hard, stagnation –Cynicism Few citizens believe in communism, the Party or the system Contempt for corruption “They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work”. "Leonid Ilyich is in surgery.""Heart again?""No, chest expansion surgery: to fit one more Gold Star medal."

Brezhnev Problems Bright Spots under Brezhnev? –Living standards up modestly –State Security, KGB, MVD etc. is 700,000 and prevents active dissent –State has full and active control of the media to stifle dissent –Party is quite large (10% of total population) and the privileged are unlikely to revolt –State propaganda trumpets Soviet sports success, particularly Olympics –Widespread cheating and drugs but athletes are national heroes –Problem is none of this gets active support for the regime they just endure it Dissent never a serious threat –Do not overstate this –Mostly urban intellectuals, numbers small –Most of Khrushchev’s religious persecution ended

Brezhnev Problems Dissent never a serious threat (con’t) Still controls on Catholics and Uniates Do take tough line on vocal dissenters –Y. Daniel, A. Sinayavsky get hard labor for smuggling out works (published abroad) –Poet Iosif Broadsky exiled 1972 –Solzhenitsyn, Nobel Prize The Gulag Archipelago and also writes about internal exile (Exiled 1974 after years in jail) –A. Sakharov, physicist internal exile 1980 (Soviet H-Bomb inventor) Two strands of dissent –Human Rights/anti-authoritarians »Samizdat: self published photocopies (4000 in1979) »Magnitizdat magnetic tape publishing

Brezhnev Problems Dissent (con’t) –Growing national unrest not dangerous yet but potentially huge threat –Multinational USSR (Russians only 52% and birth rate declining –Baltics, Islamic regions all potentially explosive –Jewish “refusenniks” demand to be allowed to leave »Few are permitted, causes tension with the west (Why? Other groups might follow) –Why the growth of dissent 1970’s -80’s? De-stalinization discredits Communist Party Repression remains but Stalin successors reluctant to use extreme violence/terror (so more speak out) Society more urban/educated undermines control Aware of West culture/wealth (TV/Radio jamming doesn’t always work) West pressures USSR to Keep human rights agreements like Helsinki Accords (1975)

Brezhnev Problems Economic Stagnation –Slowdown of Econ. Worsens under Brezhnev Stagnation here as well At first failures masked by high oil/gold prices of which USSR has huge reserves –Can pay for tech. imports and grain Some successes –Agri grows 21% (Private plots expanded) –Oil production up 50% –Siberian RR construction –Living Standards ( 86% have Fridge, 74% have TV’s »Modest wage increase for urban and rural workers (up to 90% of industrial wage) »Basic commodities like bread, potatoes, clothes, rent, kept low by the state »Problem is state can’t afford the subsidies they pay to keep prices low

Brezhnev Problems Economic Stagnation –Failures under Brezhnev (con’t) Steady decline of Industrial growth 5% , 2% by Tech. gap widens as computer age begins (no innovation/risk taking like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs) Agri. growth 1% per year despite investing 27% of gov’t budget on agriculture (ex. US gov’t 4% in agriculture at same time) –Subsidies 20% of Budge, can’t invest elsewhere USSR can’t feed itself 40% of Gov’t earnings spent on grain imports Over-dependent on foreign loans owe Fr., FRG, Br., US 50 Billion –Have to do joint ventures (ex. Natural Gas Pipeline 1980’s) Dependence on oil and gold exports leads to disaster when oil prices collapse 1980’s –No currency for food or investment

Brezhnev Problems Economic Stagnation –Failures under Brezhnev (con’t) Indicators of failure –Living standards still behind the West –Even behind some Satellite states like GDR »GDR 40% with car, USSR 6% –Black Market 10% of economy »Tolkachi: set up fake factories and sell raw materials from gov’t to real factories »Deals, bribes, patronage to get access to scarce goods/services –Alcoholism rampant »11% arrested for drunkeness 1979 »50,000/year die from alcohol related issues 1980 –Infant mortality 23/ to 32/ –Life expectancy down 4 years for men 2 years for women

Brezhnev Problems Why Does the Economy Stagnate?? –Command economy won’t work (supply, demand ignored. no innovation/risks) –No incentives Sovkhozes, Kolkhozes (agri.) or in industry Ex. US miner 14 tons of coal/day USSR 2.1 tons with similar technology (paid anyway (poorly) why work hard?) –Arms Race chews up resources (11-25%) –Central planning prevents manager experiments/innovations –5YP’s quantitative not qualitative –Overemphasis on heavy industry = scarce consumer goods “Que up!” –Limited arable land vulnerable to bad weather –Agri. production fails to keep up with population Private plots (1% of land) produce 28% of food (no incentives on state owned land) –Roads, RR’s limited, few refigerated RR Cars equals rot, Farm equipment poor quality/not maintained

Brezhnev Problems Was Brezhnev truly at fault??? Did he represent what the Party wanted? Do the Brezhnev Historiography Activity

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev –Initially poor relations with the west –Prague Spring 1968 Opens Communist Party to criticism in Czech. (A. Dubcek wants more open Party) Brezhnev leads Warsaw pact invasion, crushes Czechs puts hardliner in charge Brezhnev Doctrine states will intervene if Socialism is threatened in a socialist state –Relations improve in 1970’s with Détente Means relaxation of tension (mostly with US) Still try to expand but step back from the edge of war –Why Détente (USSR)? Fear of nuclear war Costs of arms race USSR needs western tech. USSR has caught up to US (ICBMs) militarily and welcomes a pause Fear US/China cooperation

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev –Why Détente (US)? President Nixon wants USSR/PRC aid to get a settlement on Vietnam War Arms costs hurt US economy that is in recession Yom Kippur war leads to massive oil price increase US GDP delines from 38% of World to 25% Kissinger US Sec of State accepts balance

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev –Successes 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty –Don’t transfer nuke tech. to other countries 1971 Nuclear Accidents Treaty –Notify each other concerning accidents Salt 1 Treaty 1972 –Limit launchers –5 year ICBM/SLBM freeze –ABM Treaty: 2 ABM sites each (200 total launchers) –Bombers, MIRV’s not touched US/USSR Trade Agreement 1972 –High Tech. exports allowed but Senate cancels it unless Jews can emigrate

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev –1972 Basic Pricnciple of Relations Formalize Peaceful Co-existence –1973 Prevention of Nuclear War Agreement Consult during Crises –1975 Helsinki Accords Respect sovereignty Renounce Force Respect Human rights Respect borders –Ostpolitik West Germnay refused to deal with any state that acknowledged East Germany from Willy Brandt of SPD Chancellor in 1969 Moscow Treaty formally ends WWII with USSR 1971 two Berlins formally recognized 1972 the two “Germanies” recognize each other Makes US nervous, Brandt looking East?

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev SALT II 1979 –2400 Bomber/missile limit reduce to –1200 MIRV launchers –Limit # of MIRVs per missile –Commit to negotiate SALT III –Never Ratified »Issues of verification »USSR Brigade of troops discovered in Cuba (violates agreement that ended Missile Crisis 1962) »Soviet Afghan invasion »Both sides follow SALT II provisions even though it is never ratified by US Senate –Late 1970’s Détente under attack in US and USSR Achievements were always modest any many politicians US/USSR become hostile to it

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev –Challenges to Détente USSR USSR resents linkage of negotiations to human rights –Carter links Détente to Soviet moral behavior USSR anger at Camp David Egyptian/Israeli Peace Deal –USSR had been promised a seat at the negotiations but was cut out –Challenges to Détente US USSR seeks to gain advantage in 3 rd World late 70’s Carter Admin split, Brzezinski (Nat’l Security Adviser) sees it as one way street (USSR gets all the advantages) Vance Sec. of State wants to continue US “New Right” –Increase defense spending, deter Soviets, end recession –Agree with one way street argument –Revolutions in Iran, Nicaragua, Grenada viewed as examples of cynical Soviet Exploitation

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev –Challenges to Détente US(con’t) US “New Right” (con’t) Reagan wins in 1980 and shifts policy –Middle East Background Eisenhower Doctrine Soviet Mediterranean Fleet Formed 1964 Massive Soviet aid to Egypt after 6 Day War 1966 –Détente then calms things after 1968 USSR/US to work for peace in the region –Challenges illustrated Yom Kippur War 1973 –USSR knew of Egypt/Syria attack on Israel in advance and said nothing –Then threatened to send troops to separate warring states when Israel got the upper hand –Forced to back down when US went on worldwide alert (Fiasco for USSR)

Brezhnev Foreign Policy USSR intervention in developing world –Want a say in 3 rd world countries, access to naval bases etc… –Angola »Battle between MPLA and FNLA-UNITA when Portuguese leave 1975 »FNLA-UNITA get help from South-Africa, MPLA gets USSR aid »Cuba sends in17,000 troops and MPLA controls most of country »US fears Soviet influence –Ethiopia/Somalia »USSR helps Ethiopia v. Somalia »17,000 More Cubans sent in »USSR gets port rights right on oil export routes from Persian Gulf »USSR reacting(?) or aggressive expansionists(?) US thinks it is the latter

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev –Challenges illustrated Deployment of SS-20s and Pershing II/Cruise Missiles –1977 USSR installs mobile SS20 IRBM MIRV missiles targeted on Western Europe and China –US counters with Pershing II and Cruise Missiles (Possible first strike as they fly low avoid radar) »USSR alarmed when after fierce political battle NATO accepts 108 (P) 464 (C) »USSR sees this as first strike, US points out USSR was trying to intimidate Europe –Would US fire its weapons if USSR shoots only at Europe?? (Pershing/CM deployment solves this) Poland: –Solidarity Union crushed by Polish Military Coup after Brezhnev threats to invade

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev –Collapse of Détente Afghan Invasion –KILLS DÉTENTE –USSR invades to keep a left wing gov’t PDPA in power –PDPA tries limit Islamic influence, emancipate women etc.. and civil war breaks out –Iran, Pakistan and probably CIA support Muslim rebels –PDPA President Taraki fails to defeat rebels and is assassinated by H. Amin (USSR help) –Amin fails and USSR sends in 85,000 troops 1979 –Carter responds »SALT II ratification efforts ended, embargo grain, Boycott Moscow Olympics, increase defense spending

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev –Poland 1981 Solidarity Union movement threatens Polish Communist Party USSR threatens invasion if Poles don’t act Debt crisis forces wage cuts, price increases that leads to massive strikes 1980 Polish Pope John Paul II elected and visits 1979 spurring nationalism 1980 General Jaruzelski takes over and declares martial law (Ends 1983) and USSR relieved West split –Europe trade sanctions v. Poland ignores USSR –Reagan embargoes high-tech to USSR too and stalls gas pipeline –Europeans furious and US eventually gives up

Brezhnev Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) or “Star Wars” –“Evil Empire” speech 1983 and second speech unveils space based defense nickname Star Wars –Soviets fear tech edge (Never deployed) Reagan v. Andropov –KAL Airline 007 flight shot down when it strays over USSR territory 269 killed, False Missile launch warning by USSR radar system –Able Archer War Scare 1983 »10 day command post exercise to simulate buildup to nuclear exchange »USSR thinks it is real »Reagan election, fierce anti-Soviet rhetoric, probing of Soviet defenses (sea and air) KAL have relations at all-time low »War scare as Soviets think exercise is real »Some argue we are close to war