1 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 1111 Introduction to Damage and Reconstruction Needs Assessment Session 3 World Bank Institute Ricardo Zapata

2 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 2 Damage and Losses  Loss of life or injury  Reduced welfare and well-being  Material losses and damage  Disruption of “normalcy”  Degrees of impact

3 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 3 Purposes of Disaster Valuation  Determine needs for reconstruction and mitigation  Serve as a means to mobilize external cooperation, assistance and loans  Become a tool in policy formulation and post-disaster resource allocation  Become a tool in long-term risk mitigation strategy setting  Create historical record

4 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 4 The Disaster Cycle and Damage and Needs Assessment  Emergency In the immediate aftermath, priority is to save lives Assessment efforts can begin: affected population, deaths, wounded, missing, direct damages to property and infrastructure, both public and private  Rehabilitation Priority is to return activities in the affected area to normal Assessment of direct and indirect damages can begin, and an appraisal should be initiated of secondary effects  Reconstruction Priority is to implement mitigation so that pre-disaster vulnerability is not rebuilt Ex: construction projects modify pre- existing infrastructure and environmental conditions that led to damage by the disaster

5 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 5 Disaster Valuation Concepts  Direct Damages Impact on assets Infrastructure Capital Stocks Occur immediately or after the phenomenon that caused the disaster  Indirect Damages Effects of flows Production Reduced income and increased expenses Are perceived after the phenomenon, for a time period that can last from weeks to months, till recuperation occurs

6 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 6 Social Sector  Each social group’s degree of vulnerability to a natural disaster is different, and the severity of negative impact of natural disasters is as related to social inequalities and deprivations as to the natural hazard itself  A Social Impact Assessment can be crucial in determining: What mitigation is necessary What mitigation alternatives exist Which mitigation strategies are most likely to work  Accurate assessments of impacts should pay attention to gendered differentials and must be based on sound pre- existing socio-demographic data

7 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 7 Steps in Disaster Valuation  Calculate direct and indirect damages by sector  Assess the value-added changes expected for every sector in the short-term and for the medium-tem period to be agreed  Determine the projection of damages of each sector to the others  Build a damage scenario, highlighting variations in the main economic gaps: External sector Fiscal deficit Internal equilibrium (prices, exchange rate, etc.)

8 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 8 Dynamic Global or Macroeconomic Effects  Repercussions on the national or regional economy after the disaster  The duration of the repercussions depending on the characteristics and magnitude of the disaster  The effects are reflected by: Gross Domestic Product growth Performance of the external sector Evolution of public finance Increases in prices and inflation

9 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 9 From Damage Assessment to Mitigation  Assessment highlights affected regions, vulnerable groups and sectors, and the intensity of damage  Assessment calculates direct damages both with present value and replacement costs; the latter can incorporate mitigation investments  The total damage and losses estimated in the assessment can be further disaggregated according to useful criteria: Total direct damage and indirect losses Total damage to assets and to production, and increased costs or decreased income in the provision of services Total damage to public and private sectors

10 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 10 Specific Elements of Prevention and Mitigation  INSURANCE: of public & private property  REGULATIONS: safety, land use, zoning  CODES: building & fire codes  LEGISLATION: local ordinances on safety  STRUCTURAL MEASURES: dams, levees, flood control structures  PLANS: contingency plans, fire and earthquake plans  EDUCATION: public information, rapid dissemination of info through mass media, population awareness  TRAINING: orientation of local officials, deputized coordinators, auxiliaries, volunteers, drills & rehearsals  RESOURCES: available response units, equipment, manpower, location, contact nos. & persons

11 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Management Framework National Disaster Management Systems 11 What Are the Challenges to Prevention and Mitigation?  The cost-effectiveness of prevention and mitigation measures is less apparent than in other productive investments: Benefits are medium- to long-term Benefits are hard to estimate due to unpredictability of disasters Costs may have to be paid in the short- to medium-term and can aggravate indebtedness  To correctly value future losses caused by recurring events, must recognize that mitigation reaps benefits in terms of losses not incurred over time