1. Damage to biodiversity and natural capital Direct damages are measured at the commercial value of the forest or timber Alternatively they can be estimated as the present value of environmental services that will not be obtained during a relatively long period Indirect damages, when damage is partial, is estimated as the current value of environmental services that will not be obtained during the recuperation process There are no indirect damages when natural resources are totally destroyed or lost

2. Damage to biodiversity and natural capital Damage toDiredct damages Indirect damages Natural FaunaValue of species lost or endangered Animal raisingValue of dead cattle or animal stock Reduction in animal farming and associated production (milk, meat, eggs, etc.) Marine resources Reduction in fishing

3. Damage to biodiversity and natural capital Direct damage is estimated through the commercial value of animal stock lost Indirect damage is calculated as lost income from recreational activities (hunting, sport fishing, hiking, ecotourism etc.) linked to the loss of animal stock and biodiversity

4. El Niño 1997-1998 effects in the Andean countries Venezuela: Drought damage Colombia: Bolivia: Drought and Flooding Peru: Flooding and sea changes Ecuador: Flooding and changes in ocean waters

5. Damage to biodiversity and animal farming Direct damage is estimated on the basis of commercial value of cattle or its products Indirect damage reflects diminished production of milk, meat, etc., over the recuperation period

6. Damage to biodiversity and natural marine resources Direct damage may be assessed, in the case of corals and marine life through the income loss from recreational activities that will not be obtained in a long period Indirect damage is estimated as the variation in fishing for a certain period (ENOS, for example)

7. A sample of recent products using the methodology (the more recent ones are available in webpage: www.cepal.un.org.mx, and in www:eclac.cl,at the Subregional Headquarters subsite) A sample of recent products using the methodology (the more recent ones are available in webpage: www.cepal.un.org.mx, and in www:eclac.cl,at the Subregional Headquarters subsite)www.cepal.un.org.mx Hurricanes: Mitch in Central America (1998), Georges in Dominican Republic (1998), Keith in Belize (2000), Iris and Marilyn in Anguilla and St. Marteen, etc. Hurricanes: Mitch in Central America (1998), Georges in Dominican Republic (1998), Keith in Belize (2000), Iris and Marilyn in Anguilla and St. Marteen, etc. Earthquakes: Mexico (1985), El Salvador (1986, 2001), Coffee Region in Colombia (1999), etc. Earthquakes: Mexico (1985), El Salvador (1986, 2001), Coffee Region in Colombia (1999), etc. Climatic Variability: Climatic Variability: Drought in Central America (2001) Drought in Central America (2001) El Niño Phenomenon(successive evaluation for the Andean Community and Central America, seventies to present) El Niño Phenomenon(successive evaluation for the Andean Community and Central America, seventies to present) Physical, climatic, structural vulnerability: Physical, climatic, structural vulnerability: Landslides in Venezuela (1999) Landslides in Venezuela (1999)

8. Eastern Caribbean: GDP at factor prices

9. El Niño 97-98 effects in the main economic variables of Andean countries

10. Macroeconomic effect: decreased national growth rates -0.3-0.3 -1.4 -9.0 -0.9

11. Belize: Impact of Hurricane Keith on tourism

12. Geographical distribution of damages of both earthquakes (millions of dollars) Total damage (Mill. US dollars Source: ECLAC (REDATAM)

13. EL SALVADOR:POSSIBLE RECONSTRUCCION SCENARIOS, 2001-2003

14. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (1) Subject of analysis: relation of size, development and vulnerability: Subject of analysis: relation of size, development and vulnerability: “resilience” (strengthening and preparedness) in the face of: “resilience” (strengthening and preparedness) in the face of: shocks (internal, environmental, climatic, external) shocks (internal, environmental, climatic, external) Dependency and diversification Dependency and diversification Integration and producitve/competitive linkages Integration and producitve/competitive linkages Analytical-mathematical formulation Analytical-mathematical formulation Global (transborder, regional) impact of disaster Global (transborder, regional) impact of disaster Economic, social, environmental Economic, social, environmental Effects on the donor/relief community Effects on the donor/relief community Effects on private sector (transnational corporations, FDI, financial markets, etc.) Effects on private sector (transnational corporations, FDI, financial markets, etc.)

15. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS VULNERABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT (2) Lessons from Mitch, droughts and earthquakes in 2001, climatic variability and 30 years of disaster valuation: “revisit” and appraise reconstruction process Lessons from Mitch, droughts and earthquakes in 2001, climatic variability and 30 years of disaster valuation: “revisit” and appraise reconstruction process Broadening methodology to social and environmental valuation Broadening methodology to social and environmental valuation Enhance current methodology with consideration of prospective alternative scenarios and macroeconomic models Enhance current methodology with consideration of prospective alternative scenarios and macroeconomic models Train national authorities in the areas of economics and planning Train national authorities in the areas of economics and planning Promote mitigation and risk managements policies beyond prevention and response Promote mitigation and risk managements policies beyond prevention and response

16. Internal policies: Include vulnerability reduction as an objective of development plans alongside goals of: Competitive growth Competitive growth Equitable development Equitable development Sustainable and sustained development Sustainable and sustained development Social participation Social participation External policies: Introduce risk management as part of the regional international agenda, alongside: External competitive insertion External competitive insertion Benefitting from the globalization process Benefitting from the globalization process Inclusive regional insertion Inclusive regional insertion Sectoral components: Monitoring, analysis and climate forecasting, including forest fires Monitoring, analysis and climate forecasting, including forest fires Contingency plans in key sectors, for example: Contingency plans in key sectors, for example: Agriculture, cattle raising, Agriculture, cattle raising, rural poverty, rural poverty, energy and baselines energy and baselines Water and health Water and health Interconnected systems Interconnected systems Regulation of basic services with sponsorship of private enterprise Regulation of basic services with sponsorship of private enterprise Focalized plans for vulnerable groups, including employment, food availability and nutrition Focalized plans for vulnerable groups, including employment, food availability and nutrition Education to reduce vulnerability Education to reduce vulnerability Diagnosis and monitoring of vulnerability at the local level Diagnosis and monitoring of vulnerability at the local level Proposed courses of action Restore economic and social fabric Restore and strenghten productive linkages (upstream/downstream) Reduce internal / external vulnerability

17. Disasters, conflict and crisis management How to approach the different interventions required: conceptual aspects, definition problems and purpose of the interventions How to approach the different interventions required: conceptual aspects, definition problems and purpose of the interventions Are they different sides of the same coin: crisis managements associated with disasters and / or conflict? Conceptual quagmire Are they different sides of the same coin: crisis managements associated with disasters and / or conflict? Conceptual quagmire Methodological problems: needs assessments vs. Causal analysis Methodological problems: needs assessments vs. Causal analysis Operational problems: setting priorities and differentiating emergency from urgency: simultaneity and sequencing Operational problems: setting priorities and differentiating emergency from urgency: simultaneity and sequencing Policy problems: positive vs. negative intervention; resource allocation vs. policy change promotion Policy problems: positive vs. negative intervention; resource allocation vs. policy change promotion

18. Comparative analysis of disasters and post-conflict situations

19. Comparative analysis of disasters and post-conflict situations (cont.)

21. HANDBOOK FOR ESTIMATING SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF DISASTERS Coordination: Focal Point for the Evaluation of Disasters Subregional Headquarters in Mexico www:eclac.cl/mexico