Global Futures & Foresight David Smith Global Futures and Foresight Major Market Trends

Global Futures & Foresight The Reset World Facing the future Growth drivers –Globalisation –Economies –Populations –Markets –Business Models –Technology Opportunity Why standards, why now?

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Global Futures & Foresight Five Mega Trends 1.Globalisation Global business, new economies, local CSR 2.Energy and resources Towards sustainable business 3.Climate change and environmental pollution Finding solutions 4.Changes in the world of work Winning the war for talent 5.New consumption patterns Moral economy, new and informed consumers

Global Futures & Foresight “The size of the world economy will triple over the next four decades as emerging-market economies wield increasing power” January 4 th 2011 HSBC Holdings Plc

Global Futures & Foresight Changing influence Source: Goldman Sachs Global Economic Group

Global Futures & Foresight E7 overtakes G7 in 2019 Source: PwC: January G7E7 USAChina Japan India GermanyBrazil UK Mexico FranceRussia ItalyIndonesia Canada Turkey Muslim Pop’n 22m 160m 16m 202m 74m Total 474m

Global Futures & Foresight Consumers (000’s) Source: UN Population Division 5 billion consumers 650 million consumers

Global Futures & Foresight Consumer outlook - Asia Asia, excluding Japan, spends $5,500bn a year on personal consumption. (HSBC ) $17,600bn in the US and Europe. China‘s growth is explosive. Average incomes - lower than Albania. Frederic Neumann, Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong China is capable of boosting consumption by up to 50% by 2025 –36% of GDP – lowest of any major economy –50% by Study by Jonathan Woetzel for McKinsey Global Institute Source: HSBC, quoted in the FT,

Global Futures & Foresight Urbanization

Global Futures & Foresight Fastest growing Cities

Global Futures & Foresight $40 trillion infrastructure challenge WaterPowerRoad and RailAir/ seaportTotal North America $3.62$1.53$0.94$0.43$6.52 Latin/South America $4.97$1.44$1.01$0.06$7.48 Europe$4.52$1.08$3.12$0.43$9.15 Asia / Oceania $9.04$4.23$2.11$0.51$15.89 Other (MENA) $0.46$0.72$0.62$0.16$1.96 Source: Cohen & Steers Global Infrastructure Fund

Global Futures & Foresight CHANGING POPULATIONS

Global Futures & Foresight Population Research Bureau billion The global population is expected to rise from 6.5bn in 2005 to 7.7bn in 2020 and 9.6bn in 2050 Global population growth

Global Futures & Foresight Islamic population Global population increases by 1.3 bn from 2010 to 2030 Muslim countries will contribute 600m people. (46%). In % by 2030 are 26% of world population. This could rise to 33% in 2050 and 37% by Muslims under15 will rise from 500,000 to 1.8m by $2.7 trillion today $10 trillion by

Global Futures & Foresight Urbanisation/Fertility – Muslim countries

Global Futures & Foresight Changing Global Influence Global economic dominance Global economic dominance from 1950 Global economic dominance in the future Global population dominance in the future

Global Futures & Foresight Halal markets Travel Tourism Hospitality ICT Portals Web sites Media Banking Lifa Assurance Insurance Investments Capital Markets Property development Real Estate Logistics Warehousing Industrial Parks Health Cosmetics Fashion Shopping Education Recreation Food Defining standards – facilitating growth

Global Futures & Foresight Ageing populations Percentage of Global population over 60

Global Futures & Foresight Malaysia Income & Life expectancy

Global Futures & Foresight Middle East Population Age Ageing Bahrain Egypt Iran Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey UAE Yemen Country Average Age Average Age Average Age Today

Global Futures & Foresight And we’re living longer lives  Human life expectancies have the potential to reach 500, or possibly even “The first person to live to 1,000 might be 60 already” Dr. Aubrey de Grey B.A., M.A. and Ph.D., University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Born 20 th April

Global Futures & Foresight Obesity By 2015, approximately 2.3 billion adults will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese. (The World Health Organisation) By % of US population obese.

Global Futures & Foresight CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTAINABILITY

Global Futures & Foresight World food demand doubles to % from population growth. –All in developing countries 50% from economic growth. –in low income countries Dr. Robert Thompson, University of Illinois

Global Futures & Foresight Food wastage “Roughly 40% of the food currently produced worldwide is wasted before it is consumed.” Brian Halweil of the Worldwatch Institute “We are seeing a trend toward ethical consumerism,” Jens Lönneker, Cologne based Rheingold

Global Futures & Foresight Food production innovation Food prices to triple by October International Food Policy Research Institute. Without climate change prices rise: –40% for wheat –60% for both rice and maize by 2050 As the world population grows. With climate change: –Wheat prices to rise 170% to 194% –Rice prices 113% to 121% –Maize to go up 148% to 153%. Source: International Food Policy Research Institute ‘Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation’ November

Global Futures & Foresight People in water stress by 2030 Millions of people Source: ‘OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030: Key Results’ OECD countries

Global Futures & Foresight Scarce resources By energy demand up 55%. Scramble for resources will be a major cause of conflict. The solution is to be more efficient and promote sustainability. Sustainability & efficiency reduce cost & raise the company’s value. Rising sea levels, increasing droughts and famine, and a decrease in water availability will have dramatic impacts

Global Futures & Foresight Increasing scarcity of key materials for many technologies Figures do not take into account new demand arising from new technologies Source: LabNol ‘How Long Will Rare Metals Last?’ October

Global Futures & Foresight New Polar sea route Ice gone completely in summer within 10 years Pen Hadow, Arctic Explorer

Global Futures & Foresight Market sectors

Global Futures & Foresight Islamic Banking to Double… Global Islamic banking: –$1 trillion in –$2 trillion by International Islamic Finance Forum Abu Dhabi (Oct 2010). Focus on ethical banking values. “Islamic banks using the foundation of Islam, should lead the way for an ethical banking structure. This will pave the way for a profitable future and be an example to conventional banking industry,” Afaq Khan, chief executive officer, Standard Chartered

Global Futures & Foresight …Or Possibly Quadruple? By 2020 Islamic banks will handle 40% to 50% of all savings of the Muslim population. Dr. Nasser Saidi, Chief Economist of the Dubai International Financial Centre - December 1 st 2010 that in Islamic financial services would total $4 trillion by

Global Futures & Foresight Expansion of Takaful Insurance Islamic household savings will reach $24bn a year by Accenture, the global management consultancy, forecasts Global Takaful to pass $8.8bn in contributions last year. Ernst & Young’s World Takaful Report 2010: Managing performance in a recovery, unveiled at the 5th Annual World Takaful Conference of 2010,

Global Futures & Foresight Halal food Global demand rising. Expected to grow at 20% by 2025 Hamid Badawi, Deputy Chief Executive of UAE Al Islami Foods. Halal food accounts for 16% of the world food trade - just less than proportionate to the Muslim population. IHIA statistics.

Global Futures & Foresight Islamic Travel & Tourism As a concept, Islamic tourism has three main components. 1.The revival of Islamic cultures and the spread of Islamic values. 2.Economic benefit for Islamic societies. 3.Deepening Islamic self-confidence, identity and beliefs.

Global Futures & Foresight Middle East Air Traffic to Double by bus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_ pdf

Global Futures & Foresight Islamic Tourism Almulla Hospitality is to open 150 Halal hotels by 2015, –In Middle East, Europe and N. America. Jawhara hotels aiming for 25% Sharia-compliant hotels in Dubai. Spending 2.5% of net profit as Zakah. Interest is spreading beyond companies in Muslim countries.

Global Futures & Foresight Islamic Tourism Kempinski, Zurich-based, is building 30 hotels with Islamic company Guidance Financial Group by –Opening in N. Africa, gulf region and Europe. Best Western, offers Halal hotels in Malaysia, Bahrain and Oman. Rezidor Hotel Group, Brussels- based, predicts Sharia-compliant hospitality to grow 20% per year over this decade.

Global Futures & Foresight Education Not-for-profit organization created and sustained by Salman Khan. –The world's first free, world-class virtual school. –A high quality education to anyone, anywhere –Tens of thousands of videos in pretty much every subject YouTube-hosted tutorials: –35,000 views per day – Dec –70,000 – Aug

Global Futures & Foresight Science and R&D Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) to make universities more science-oriented. Higher education and science and technology ministers from member countries of the Jeddah-based ‘A research-centric education is the only way out of economic problems. (Jan 2011) OIC Secretary General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu The OIC's target is to spend 1% of GDP on R&D.

Global Futures & Foresight CONSUMERS

Global Futures & Foresight Drivers of the consumer shift 1.Better educated (more savvy). 2.Buying in accordance with values. 3.Transparency – internet facilitated. 4.Social media penetration. 5.Smart technology 6.Demand for personalized products. 7.Lower barriers to entry in many industries increases competition.. 8.Trust in business. (or lack of) 9.The rise of Green. 10.Service differentiation

Global Futures & Foresight Porter’s 5 Forces Change Dynamics

Global Futures & Foresight Muslim Consumer power US Muslims buying power is $200bn - $25,000 per person. 1.6bn Muslims worldwide, generate a current Muslim lifestyle market value of $2 trillion At 25% of US spending, global Muslim spend could reach $10 trillion a year. (2)

Global Futures & Foresight Global consumer consciousness Consumers Want a product with an "added social benefit." Consumers want companies to: –Meet their needs and simultaneously –Have a positive impact on society. Opportunities for brands with real depth in their stories to step forward and take extra share. Source: Fast Company, September Source: PSB Research, March PURPOSE

Global Futures & Foresight Business Models

Global Futures & Foresight Premise underlying re-invention Reconfigured relationships. Mash-up business models. Consumer increasingly powerful. Innovation is a key differentiator. Convenience & Quality expected.

Global Futures & Foresight Technology driven innovation 70’s and 80 –technology-led innovation. 80’s and 00’s –marketing-led innovation. Social computing leads us to Social Innovation. Forrester. Driven by empowered people. Source: Forrester,

Global Futures & Foresight Global relationships Learning Sourcing ideas Co-creation Recruitment Building relationships Community engagement Networked business models Social networks Over 1.5 billion people in top 40 Social Networks Source: The GFF Pulse expert panel survey Doing business networks

Global Futures & Foresight Value creation shifting from workers to outside the enterprise Organisations are increasingly outnumbered by the resources provided by their network. Real business value coming from the social world as we learn to engage. Significant trends such as: –Crowd-sourcing –Open and social supply chains –Open innovation –Social media marketing –Social CRM

Global Futures & Foresight Technology

Global Futures & Foresight Disruptive technologies Internet II Nano 3D Social media Mobile broadband Virtual real worlds Electronic media Large Glass displays Interactive displays Jamming The Grid Holograms Humanoid robots Genetic Engineering

Global Futures & Foresight Rate of adoption of new technologies Years until used by 25% of US populatio n Electricity Radio Telephone Television PC Mobile Phone Internet Source: Kurzweil Institute

Global Futures & Foresight Internet of ‘things’

Global Futures & Foresight New era of mass communication Today's Internet bn users. Internet World Stats. World population bn people Internet to have 5 bn users National Science Foundation in the U.S 2012 the internet will be: – 75 times its size in –400 times traffic due to online video most access internet via mobile

Global Futures & Foresight The Singularity The Semantic Web Virtual Worlds Augmented Reality Personalized Marketing Evolving Personal Technological Ecosystem Communications Technologies

Global Futures & Foresight Artificial Intelligence Artificial Intelligence’s - we will interact with it just like humans. There are fewer human interactions but they take a more strategic focus. Face recognition that identifies emotional changes. Mood Analytics. Source: hours a day, 7 days a week online and available

Global Futures & Foresight New communication channels Acroid 1Shakira 2 Clooney 1

Global Futures & Foresight What’s changing? Economies Populations People Planet Markets Education Work Business models Technology Everything and everybody Fix the foundations and get set for growth

Global Futures & Foresight “If everything seems under control, you’re just not going fast enough.” Mario Andretti

Global Futures & Foresight Imagine it If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead  Thank you davidsmithgff