A Presentation of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Professor Mike Hulme Executive Director

Climate change – the big questions Understanding ‘dangerous’ climate change ….. …. ecology, economics, sustainability, psychology, climate science, ethics …. Pathways to decarbonisation ….. ….. energy, economics, technology, policy, engineering, spatial planning …. Place-based climate protection strategies ….. ….. development studies, climate science, land-use economics, ecology, planning … and then there is the challenge of integration …

A brief history of modelling – re. climate change mid-1970s: global climate models – disciplinary, institute-based late-1980s: IMAGE 1 – inter-disciplinarity early-1990s: ESCAPE – trans-nationality mid-1990s: TARGETS – holistic thinking late 1990s: IMAGE 2/COOL – interactivity late-1990s: participatory integrated assessment – a new paradigm early 2000s: eScience – massive modularity … conclusion – era of virtual institutes deploying the above attributes, solving complex problems through interactive research …

The Tyndall Centre … … key elements of what we do Integrated, trans-disciplinary, multi-site research on climate change mitigation, on adaptation and on integration Wide engagement and interactivity with national and international stakeholders; partnership based approach Outreach, education and opinion-shaping

University of Leeds University of Sussex RAL CLIMATE SCIENCE APPLIED ECONOMIC MODELLING ARCHITECTURE ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS & POLICY TRANSPORT MODELLING ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS & POLICY ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY INTEGRATION IMPACT & ADAPTATION ANALYSIS The Tyndall Centre partnership

Tyndall Centre – External Relationships NGO’s & CHARITIES FOE, Green Alliance, National Trust, BTO, RSPB….. GOVERNMENT DEFRA DfT DTI FCO DfID DoH ODPM Regional Govt. Devolved Govt. European Commission OST RESEARCH COUNCILS NERC, EPSRC, ESRC [MRC?] BUSINESS & INDUSTRY TRADE ASSOCIATIONS etc. RESEARCH COMMUNITY National & International HADLEY CENTRE Some Research funding SOCIETY EXEC. NDPB’s English Nature Environment Agency Countryside Agency ADVISORY NDPB’s EXEC. AGENCIES HA, MCA Funding Business Liaison Programme UK CIP MEDIA Carbon Trust Energy Saving Trust TYNDALL INTERNATIONAL European Climate Forum IPCC, UNFCCC FP6 - enVISAge

Tyndall Centre - Structure CENTRE MANAGEMENT UEA Research Director Executive Director Regional Assistant Directors SOUTHAMPTON & UMIST ADVISORY BOARD x25 Private Sector 10 Public Sector 5 Academia 8 NGO 2 Annual Assessment Panel X12 AB Members Review Panel x7 AB Members CENTRE STAFF External Communications Business & Government Liaison Activities and Web Co-ordination Scientific Co-ordinator Administrator Secretary Senior Research Fellows (4) TYNDALL COUNCIL x16 Directors, Theme Managers, and Partner Representatives TYNDALL COUNCIL x16 Directors, Theme Managers, and Partner Representatives RESEARCH MANAGEMENT TEAM x10 RESEARCH PROJECT LEADERS x40 RESEARCH STAFF & STUDENTS * RESEARCH THEME MANAGERS x6 Note: All included in this schematic are referred to as The Tyndall Assembly, together with the founding endorsers of the Centre, the “Tyndall 43” SUPERVISORY BOARD x5 NERC / EPSRC / ESRC *Includes affiliated students and Visiting Fellows

21% 6% 7% 16% 33% 13% 4%

Tyndall Centre – additional funders International: EU FP5, Government of Portugal, GEF/UNEP, Earth Negotiation Bulletin UK Government: DEFRA, DTI, DfID, Environment Agency, Sustainable Development Commission, Eastern England Development Agency UK Research Councils: ESRC, NERC, MRC, Joint Infrastructure Fund NGOs: English Nature, Joint Nature Conservation Council, Gulbenkian Foundation Business: Powergen, Shell International, Hoare Lee Engineering, Process Integration Consortium, Renewables Northwest

Organised around four research themes Decarbonising modern societies – a ‘targets’ approach Adapting to climate change – a ‘questions’ approach Sustaining the coastal zone – a ‘place-based’ approach Integrating frameworks – a ‘systems’ approach

The Tyndall Wheel

Organised around four main tasks Trans-disciplinary research projects (e.g. mapping pathways towards a 40% UK) Innovative agenda-setting (e.g. integrating development policy with adaptation) Strategic assessments (e.g. equity and justice in adaptation policy; COP8) Advancing the science of integration (e.g. a Community Integrated Assessment Model)

Tyndall integrated assessment objectives To design and construct a flexible multi-modular multi-disciplinary community integrated assessment model (CIAM) to address climate policy problems To set up an interactive integrated assessment process (IIAP) in which we work with stakeholders and decision-makers to guide the design of the CIAM

Netherlands:ICIS Health module UK: Tyndall Centre MAGICC-SCENGEN Climate module (Norwich) Germany: Potsdam IA Modules (PIAM) DINAS-coast Global Ecosystem Module UK: Tyndall Economics Module (Cambridge) Emissions of 6 COP gases Feedback effects EXAMPLE SCHEMATIC OF SIMPLE PROTOTYPE COMMUNITY INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL (CIAM)

Tyndall Centre and eScience

enVISAge – an EU FP6 Network of Excellence? a Virtual Institute for Sustainability Assessment  Developing a joint knowledge infrastructure for the execution of a truly European program of research  Fostering fundamental advances in the emergence of a science of integration and a science of sustainability Ensuring the appropriate application of this research capacity to the production of timely policy-relevant research on important questions concerning the transition to sustainability A partnership between national centres and networks

Methodology Economy Energy Social influences Technical progress World Transport World Agriculture Impact System Ecosystems Agriculture Health Human systems including Regionalised sub-modules Climate System Emissions of 6 COP Gases SO2, NOx, and PM Atmospheric concentrations of 6 COP Gases, SO2, NOx, aerosols adaptation mitigation Ecosystem feedbacks: albedo from land use/icemelt/forest change Stakeholder influence/social decision making climate feedbacks interactions Direct effects of land use change on climate