unido.org/statistics Key issues of industrial surveys in South Asia Shyam Upadhyaya International workshop on industrial statistics 8 – 10 July, Beijing

unido.org/statistics Outline 2 How manufacturing matters to South Asia? Relevance of industrial statistics Overview of current situation of industrial statistics (evidences from UNIDO Databases) Kew issues in terms of the quality dimensions of industrial statistics

unido.org/statistics Why manufacturing matters for South Asia? 3 Manufacturing plays a bigger role in South Asia at its early stage of industrialization Absorbs the surplus labour force coming from rising population Brings new technology, promotes innovation, thereby increases productivity in other sectors of economy Produces essential goods for domestic and external market Industrial statistics plays an indispensable role in informing the society about the possibilities created by manufacturing activities

unido.org/statistics Size of manufacturing in South Asia 4 Share of MVA in GDP is rising in South Asia India is among top 10 manufacturers of the world Bangladesh alone produces more than the rest of LDCs

unido.org/statistics World and regional MVA growth in 1990 – = 100 MVA growth of SAARC region has been consistently higher than the country group averages, it belongs to.

unido.org/statistics Global and regional MVA growth trends 6 MVA growth was relatively less vulnerable in the years of the world economic recession thanks to growing domestic demand

unido.org/statistics Share of China and SAARC region 7

unido.org/statistics Overview of industrial surveys in South Asia PeriodicityLatest year data available Cut-off size ISIC Revision AfghanistanAnnual2008 Registered establishments Rev 3 Bangladesh5 years persons engaged Rev 3 BhutanNot regular2006 All registered units Rev 3 CambodiaNot regular persons engaged Rev 3 MaldivesNot regularNot available Rev 3 MyanmarNot regular2010 State-owned and 10 persons engaged Rev 3 Nepal5-years persons engaged Rev 3 IndiaAnnual persons, if no power, 20 persons engaged Rev 4 Lao PDRNot regular persons engaged Rev 3 Pakistan5 years employees Rev 3 Sri LankaAnnual persons engaged Rev 3

unido.org/statistics Major issues of industrial surveys Limited use of admin data; especially for maintaining business register Extensive field operation which makes data collection time consuming, expensive and complex; limited use of sampling method mainly due to the frame problem Inadequate coverage of data items for compiling policy relevant statistical indicators Dialogue between the statistical office and users at large on survey operation and its results

unido.org/statistics Survey of small scale establishments 10 What is small? – anything that is not big... Inconsistency between the statistical and administrative definition of the small scale industry No reliable frame - large rate of mobility in business demography Out of all registered units 30% in India and 42% in Nepal are not in operation or not identifiable Small scale establishments make significant contribution to employment and self-employment and reduce poverty. The task of industrial statistics is to provide complete measure of all industrial activities of the country

unido.org/statistics Short-term indicators of industrial statistics 11 STI are constructed to show the current growth trends of the volume of industrial production Early warning on turning points economy and its major sectors Some relevant issues for South Asia: – production indices by industrial sectors (some countries produce quarterly GDP by sector) – seasonal adjustment of production indices – delay in data reporting (quarterly data get quickly outdated) - problem for international data users measurement units/reference year

unido.org/statistics Identified problems against quality dimensions 12 Quality dimension Activities required Relevance Statistics are well-presented to general public, media and users at large Analytical indicators are compiled to suit the interest of policymakers. Dialogue with the data users in private sector Completeness Scope of the industrial surveys is extended to smaller activity units Survey results include estimates for non-response and non-coverage Timeliness Industrial surveys are conducted regularly to support time-series analysis Time-lag between survey period and data dissemination point is reduced Comparability Data are comparable over time and across-countries (international comparability) Implementation of international recommendations and statistical standards

unido.org/statistics 13 No demand from users Lack of realization for the evidence based policy making in the government and private sector Limited resources or survey capacity in NSOs Statistics is not in the government priority Data needs are met from administrative or other sources Why some countries do not conduct the industrial survey regularly?

Thank you! 4/14/