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Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q3 2009 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC)

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Presentation on theme: "Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q3 2009 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Business Optimism Index Kuwait Q3 2009 Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd (D&B) Muthanna Investment Company (MIC)

2 Business Optimism Index The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized world over as an indicator which ascertains the pulse of the business community Provides insight into the short-term outlook business units on sales, profit growth, investment etc Provides analysis of major trends, outlook and issues concerning the business units

3 Survey Sample of business units representing Kuwait’s economy was selected 500 business owners and senior executives across business units were surveyed Survey conducted during June 2009 for the 3rd quarter of 2009 Respondents were questioned about their expectations on relevant business parameters Survey also captured respondent feedback on current business conditions

4 World Economic Outlook IMF revises world economic growth downwards to -1.4% in 2009, recovery in 2010 with 2.5% growth GDP of United States expected to contract by 2.6% in year 2009, 0.8% growth in 2010 Emerging nations such as China & India relatively resilient to the global economic slump Middle East growth to rebound to 3.7% in 2010 Real GDP Growth (%)World Stock markets

5 Kuwait’s economy Source: IMF IMF estimates suggest that Kuwaiti economy is likely to contract 1.1% in 2009; non-oil GDP is likely to grow 1.2% and oil GDP is estimated to contract by 4.5% Kuwait’s Consumer Price Inflation is estimated to drop to 6% in 2009 after registering a double- digit growth in 2008 Kuwait government’s fiscal balance for 2009 is estimated at 21.2% of GDP Source: IMF

6 Business Optimism Indices : Q3 2009 Marked improvement in optimism for all parameters in Non hydrocarbon sector Hydrocarbon sector upbeat due to recent rally in crude oil prices

7 Business optimism index improves with improving business sentiments and expectations of global economic recovery Business Optimism Indices Trend

8 Manufacturing Sector The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stands at 46.9 in June, depicting a slowdown in contraction 53% of the companies expect no change in selling price Current employment levels to be maintained by 71% of the companies Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index GDP 9%

9 Construction sector Construction sector worldwide is expected to recover modestly in 2010 due to Governments’ efforts to boost infrastructure spending The sector in Kuwait is optimistic about sales, new orders and profitability Construction sector least upbeat about the selling price outlook among all sectors; plans to maintain a lean stock position Infrastructure construction growth 2008-13 Compound annual growth (%) GDP 5%

10 World exports are expected to decline by 25% in year 2009 due to slowdown in demand Due to the global recessionary conditions, the trade & hospitality sector in Kuwait is likely to face some pressure Trade & Hospitality Sector GDP 6%

11 Drop in trade volumes has impacted the transport and logistics sector across the world Optimism about improvement in order books and rise in sales volumes lifts profitability expectations Selling price outlook bleak; 24% anticipate a decrease in Level of Selling Prices GDP 9% Logistics & Communication Sector

12 The global financial system continues to reel under severe stress Overall private sector credit in advanced countries is expected to decline through 2010, and capital flows to emerging markets will also be low The sector is most optimistic with regards to sales, new orders and profitability in Q3 2009 GDP 19% Finance and Business Services Sector

13 Sentiments in the hydrocarbon sector recover on the back of rise in oil prices GDP 52% Business Optimism Indices Trends : Hydrocarbon Sector

14 Other Key Highlights Internal funds will be the main source of finance for majority of the companies in the non-hydrocarbon sector; 50% of the hydrocarbon sector to rely on bank loans and internal financing Availability of finance and raw material costs cited as chief business concerns by the non-hydrocarbon sector 42% of non-hydrocarbon businesses plan to keep investments unchanged and 23% will block investments in Q3 2009 65% of hydrocarbon units and 43% of non-hydrocarbon units expect global economic recovery to begin in 2010. Project delays and transportation costs are the main concerns for the hydrocarbon sector

15 Conclusion Showing resilience to the global meltdown, order books show a sharp incline with the Finance, insurance, real estate & business services sector being the most optimistic sector Activity in finance & business services sector is expected to improve with signs of increased liquidity in the domestic and international markets Downward pressure on prices of goods and services to subside. Stabilizing market sentiments are expected to pace up the construction activity in Kuwait in the forthcoming quarter A significant number of business units in the hydrocarbon sector have a positive business outlook for Q3 2009 as Kuwait plans to increase its oil production capacity by 2010


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