The Mediterranean Forecasting System: recent developments Marina Tonani (1), P. Oddo (1), G. Korres (4), E. Clementi (1), M. Drudi (1), M. Dedominics (1)

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The Mediterranean Forecasting System: recent developments Marina Tonani (1), P. Oddo (1), G. Korres (4), E. Clementi (1), M. Drudi (1), M. Dedominics (1) J. Pistoia (2), A. Guarnieri (1), V. Romaniello (1), G. Girardi (1), A. Grandi (1), A. Bonaduce (2), S. Salon (5), A. Teruzzi( 5), G. Cossarin (5), G. Bolzon (5), C. Solidoro (5), A. Crise (5) and N. Pinardi (3) (1)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Gruppo di Oceanografia Operativa, Bologna, Italy (2)Centro EuroMediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy (3)University of Bologna, Department of Environmental Sciences, Ravenna, Italy (4)Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greece (5)Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica sperimentale, Trieste, Italy

Topics The Mediterranean Forecasting System general description: components and products System: 1.High resolution atmospheric forcing 2.Atmospheric pressure 3.Increased horizontal resolution biogeochemical component Products: 4.New reanalysis Next evolution

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) components

New! December 2013 High resolution atmospheric forcing COSMO-ME (from USAM) The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) : 1. High resolution atmospheric forcing

1. MFS - High resolution atmospheric forcing MFS-MyOMFS-Ritmare NWPECMWFCOSMO-ME ModelsNEMO+WW-III Data Asssimilation3dVAR # Forecast days103 Horizontal res.1/16x1/16 Vertical res.72 z (partial steps) LOBCClim from GLO http: //medforecast.bo.ingv.it

Operational 3d Forecast HighResolution (7km) NWP Forcing (COSMO-ME) Operational 10d Forecast Low Resolution NWP Forcing MyOcean 1. MFS - High resolution atmospheric forcing

Evaluation and inter-comparison of MFS systems Marine Rapid Environmental Assessment – MREA October 2014

8Med-currents R&D: 2. NEMO model : Introduction of the Atm pressure Barotropic Baroclinic cc cc The atmospheric pressure is usually neglected, however it can play an important role in specific regions of the world characterized by geometrical constrains like the Med Sea. The free-surface elevation response to atmospheric pressure can be composed of External Gravity Waves (EGWs). EGWs require a very small time step  time scale short compared to other processes Two methods are implemented in NEMO to allow a longer time step solving the primitive equation in presence of EGWs: the so called filtered and the time-splitting method.

The system with atm. pressure and time splitting (V4) is better than the previous version (V3) 2. MFS-V4 (with atm. Pressure) evaluation: Sea Level in Venice Model: atm. pressure & time splitting parameterization V3  V4 Data Assim.: SLA along track without DAC correction (J2, Cr2, S/A)

Med-MFC Med currents V4 evaluation: Mediterranean basin J2 (J1) J2+Cr2+S/Al

REGION Winter (Nov-April) Log10 surf. Chl (mg/m3) Summer (May-Oct) Log10 surf. Chl (mg/m3) MeanRMSMeanRMS Northern West Med Southern West Med Tyrrhenian Sea Southern Adriatic Sea Ionian Sea Aegean Sea Levantine Sea SAT1/81/16 EANs of surface chlorophyll Increased horizontal resolution relevant in the reproduction of small scale horizontal structures in specific areas (e.g. coastal area– lateral transport processes) 3. MFS-BGC (increased res. 1/16): Chl validation

Improvement in reproducing sub-regional annual means of vertically integrated net primary production in western Mediterranean areas, other areas remain unaffected. Not enough observation to evaluate the high spatial frequency. Basin-scale net primary production is affected by increased resolution in mesoscale-active areas such as Alboran Sea MED ALB Colella (2006) R8R16 Mediterranean (MED) 90    59 Alboran Sea (ALB) 179    101 South West Med (SWW) 113    81 North West Med (NWM) 115    74 Levantine (LEV) 72  2197  6497  65 __ 1/8 __ 1/16 3. MFS-BGC (increased res. 1/16): Net Primary Production

SYSTEMPRODUCTSTIME RANGEUPDATE FREQ. Med-Cur SIMULATION1-6 daysDaily (J-1J) ANALYSIS1999-ongoingweekly (J-15/J-2) FORECAST10 daysDaily (J/J+9) REANALYSIS Med-Bio SIMULATION1-6 daysweekly (J-7J/J-1) ANALYSIS2013-ongoingweekly (J-7/J-1) FORECAST10 daysBi-weekly (J/J+9) REANALYSIS MFS-products

The DA significantly improves the description of the variability of surface chlorophyll 4. MFS-BGC reanalysis ( ) with Chl assimilation No DA DA

Next steps: MED-PHYS: Improvement of model diffusion and advection parameterization (horiz. diff. and visc., tracer advection scheme and momentum equation) LOBC: connection with GLOBAL Mercator 1/12° Assimilation of glider T/S profiles GODAE CLASS-4 High resolution (hourly) products MED- BIO: DA of surface Chl in coastal areas and DA of other variables non –climatological light extinction coefficient MODEL DOMAIN