Immigration Reform: The Voters’ Outlook

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Presentation transcript:

Immigration Reform: The Voters’ Outlook HART RESEARCH A S O T E C I Immigration Reform: The Voters’ Outlook 10826 Key findings from nationwide telephone survey among 1,003 2012 voters conducted January 7 – 10, 2013

Immigration Is Good For America Overall View Of Immigration All Voters Bad thing for America today Good thing for America today Good Thing 74% 60% 58% 63% 70% 69% Bad Thing 14% 23% 28% 24% 13% 13% Not sure Democrats Independents Republicans Whites African Americans Hispanics Q.4

Immigration System Is Not Working How would you describe the state of the immigration system today? All Voters 75% 48% of voters say that fixing the immigration system should be a high priority for Congress. Needs complete overhaul 46% 20% Q.5ab Very well  Working well Not working well/overhaul

Public’s Goals For Immigration Reform This should be a high priority* for reforming the immigration system: 89% 83% 79% 73% 71% 66% 63% 51% 40% Make sure all immigrants pay taxes Require employers to verify that all employees are legal Pass a long-term solution that fixes the immigration problem once and for all Do more to secure the border to stop people from entering the country illegally Prevent employers from lowering wages by exploiting immigrant workers Prevent illegal immigrants from coming into the country in the future Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship Help unite families here that have been separated by our current immigration laws Deport all immigrants who have entered the United States illegally Q.7 * Seven-to-10 rating on a zero-to-10 scale, 10 = should be the single most important goal

Public’s Goals For Immigration Reform: Democrats/Republicans This should be a high priority* for reforming the immigration system: Demo- crats 84% 74% 78% 59% 75% 50% 72% 65% 28% Repub- licans 93% 83% 87% 70% 82% 53% 38% 52% Make sure all immigrants pay taxes Require employers to verify that all employees are legal Pass a long-term solution that fixes the immigration problem once and for all Do more to secure the border to stop people from entering the country illegally Prevent employers from lowering wages by exploiting immigrant workers Prevent illegal immigrants from coming into the country in the future Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship Help unite families here that have been separated by our current immigration laws Deport all immigrants who have entered the United States illegally Q.7 * Seven-to-10 rating on a zero-to-10 scale, 10 = should be the single most important goal

Voters Want Legal Status To Include Chance For Earned Citizenship This should be a high priority* for reforming the immigration system: Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal… and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship but not be given a chance to earn citizenship Q.7 ALL VOTERS Demo- crats Inde- pendents Repub- licans Liberals Moderates Conser- vatives * Seven-to-10 rating on a zero-to-10 scale, 10 = should be the single most important goal

By Itself, A Path To Citizenship Creates An Interesting Political Dynamic Ensure that immigrants who came to the United States illegally become legal and have the opportunity to work toward citizenship. Mean ratings 6.4 Independents 7.4 1st Generation Immigrant 6.9 2nd Generation Immigrant + 6.3 GOP Primary Voters 5 10 In The Middle Single Most Important Goal Q.7 6.5 Union 7.4 Less than $50k 6.3 Republicans 7.0 $50k-$100k 7.7 Democrats

Voters Say Border Security And Legal Status Are Both Important With which statement about immigration do you agree more? The first priority on immigration should be getting control of our border. Until we do that, we should not be granting legal status to those who came here illegally, as it will just invite more illegal border crossings. Improving border security and fixing our broken immigration system are both important. We should require immigrants to become legal and pay taxes, while also improving border security. Q.8a

With which statement about immigration do you agree more? However, There Are Areas Of Partisan Friction As Voters Wrestle With Different Concepts With which statement about immigration do you agree more? The first priority on immigration should be getting control of our border. Until we do that, we should not be granting legal status to those who came here illegally, as it will just invite more illegal border crossings. Improving border security and fixing our broken immigration system are both important. We should require immigrants to become legal and pay taxes, while also improving border security. Democrats Independents Q.8a Republicans

Strong Support For Immigration Reform Plan Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan All Voters Description Of Main Elements Strengthens border security by deploying better technology and focusing enforcement resources on the most serious security threats. Requires employers to verify that all employees are legal, and any companies that employ illegal immigrants would pay large fines. Illegal immigrants already in the United States with no criminal record would be required to register for legal status, learn English, and pay taxes, and they could work toward citizenship over time. Ties the amount of legal immigration to the state of the economy, increasing it when employers cannot fill jobs and decreasing immigration levels when unemployment is high. 77% Strongly 38% 14% Q.9 Strongly 6% Approve Disapprove

Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan Support for Immigration Reform Plan Crosses Partisan, Ideological Divides Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan Total Approve 77% 72% 80% 76% 82% 80% 77% 76% 77% 81% 77% 77% 72% 81% 77% 76% All Voters Democrats Independents Republicans Very conservative GOPs GOP primary voters Republican CDs Whites African Americans Hispanics Age 18 to 34 Age 35 to 49 Age 50 to 64 Age 65/over High school/less education Some college College graduates 77% Strongly 38% 14% Q.9 Strongly 6% Approve Disapprove

Support For Individual Immigration Reform Policies  Strongly approve  Somewhat approve Illegal immigrants required to pay taxes Border security: better technology, focus Illegals with no criminal record must register for legal status Employers verify employees legal, large fines if employ illegals Work toward citizenship only if registered, learn English, pay taxes Illegal immigrants must learn English Legal immigration tied to economy/unemployment rate 94% 92% 89% 88% 85% Q.10 83% 57% Democrats 56% Republicans 58%

Voters More Likely To Support Pro-Reform Candidates How would it affect your vote for your Member of Congress if he/she voted for this immigration reform plan? All Voters More Likely 56% 47% 53% 50% 55% 53% 54% Democrats Independents Republicans Northeast South Midwest West Less Likely 7% 11% 8% 8% 6% 7% 12% Q.11 More Likely To Vote Less Likely To Vote Wouldn’t Affect Vote

If Immigrants Become Legal, Earned Citizenship Should Be Available If immigration reform establishes legal status for people who originally entered the country illegally, which is the better way to do that? It would be better to give people a chance to eventually earn citizenship at some point after they register for legal status, pass a background check, learn English, and pay taxes. They should be allowed to qualify for legal status and work in the United States but should never be given the chance to earn citizenship. Neither/should not be given legal status (VOL) Q.12 Republicans: Chance to earn citizenship 83% Legal status/not citizenship 10%

Debating Immigration Reform: Amnesty? With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more? OPPONENTS say this is just amnesty for illegal immigrants. The plan rewards millions of illegal immigrants who broke the law, at the expense of others who waited in their home country and played by the rules. SUPPORTERS say this is not amnesty, it's accountability. The plan requires those here illegally to pay taxes, learn English, and pass a criminal background check before they can become legal and stay in the United States. Q.13a Opponents Supporters

Debating Immigration Reform: Unfair To Legal Immigrants? With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more? OPPONENTS say it is not fair to let illegal immigrants become legal ahead of people who have followed the rules and applied to come here legally. If they found a way to get here, they can find a way to get home and then apply to come to the United States the right way. SUPPORTERS say it's not realistic to deport 12 million immigrants. And this plan requires illegal immigrants to go to the back of the line and wait their turn behind those immigrants who came to the United States legally, before receiving citizenship. Q.13b Opponents Supporters

Debating Immigration Reform: Unfair To Legal Immigrants? With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more? Opponents Supporters OPPONENTS say it is not fair to let illegal immigrants become legal ahead of people who have followed the rules and applied to come here legally. If they found a way to get here, they can find a way to get home and then apply to come to the United States the right way. SUPPORTERS say it's not realistic to deport 12 million immigrants. And this plan requires illegal immigrants to go to the back of the line and wait their turn behind those immigrants who came to the United States legally, before receiving citizenship. Q.13b Democrats Independents Republicans

Debating Immigration Reform: Americans Out Of Work With which statement about the immigration reform plan do you agree more? OPPONENTS say that with millions of Americans out of work, now is not the time to increase immigration and make it easier for illegal immigrants to stay here. We need to take care of Americans first before we reward those who have broken our laws with amnesty. SUPPORTERS say this plan cracks down on illegal hiring by requiring employers to verify workers’ legal status and increasing penalties for those who hire illegal immigrants, so that American workers’ wages are not undermined. America is stronger when immigrants get legal and pay taxes. Q.13c Whites Af-Am. 31% 31% Whites Af-Am. 60% 61% Opponents Supporters

After Debate, Support For Immigration Reform Remains Strong Reaction To Immigration Reform Plan Initial Support Support After Debate 77% 80% Strongly 38% 14% Strongly 39% 14% Q.9, 14 Strongly 6% Strongly 6% Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove

The Bottom Line For Immigration Reform Importantly, an opportunity to earn citizenship is on the table, and can achieve bipartisan support as part of a comprehensive plan to fix the immigration system. However, it is important to remember that the primary drivers of support for reform are Americans’ desire to secure the border, prevent employers from hiring illegal immigrants, and ensure that immigrants become legal taxpayers. Addressing concerns like taxes and border security helps create the foundation for a plan that many voters see as “accountable.” This is particularly important to Republicans and independents. Americans express a desire to resolve the immigration issue once and for all. This is not a debate they want to revisit.

Immigration Reform: The Voters’ Outlook HART RESEARCH A S O T E C I Immigration Reform: The Voters’ Outlook 10826 Key findings from nationwide telephone survey among 1,003 2012 voters conducted January 7 – 10, 2013